- 7 months ago
In a detailed discussion regarding the reported United States military intervention in Venezuela, a panel of experts analyzes the removal of President Nicolas Maduro and the subsequent global implications. The speakers debate the legality and strategic logic of the operation, drawing parallels to the 1989 invasion of Panama, while questioning whether the primary motivation is the restoration of democracy or control over Venezuela's vast oil reserves. The conversation highlights significant concerns about the lack of a clear transition plan, the potential for prolonged instability, and the geopolitical reactions from major powers like China and Russia. Furthermore, the discussion addresses India's perspective, focusing on energy security, potential investment opportunities, and the logistical challenges associated with Venezuelan heavy crude oil infrastructure.
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00:00All right, the big questions that we ask at the back of that development,
00:03which we saw take place over the course of the weekend.
00:06What is President Trump's plan for Venezuela?
00:09Is Trump planning more invasions?
00:10Is Venezuela raid all about oil?
00:13And how will China respond?
00:15Let's take these questions to Casey Singh,
00:17former Indian ambassador, Dr. Thaymur Baig,
00:19managing director and chief economist,
00:21DBS Bank Limited, Daniel Freed,
00:23former diplomat and Wiser Family Distinguished Fellow
00:26at the Atlantic Council.
00:28Let's cut across to Mr. Freed first.
00:30Mr. Freed, what is your reading of what transpired in the last 48 hours, sir?
00:37We are dealing with a legally and constitutionally questionable U.S. move.
00:45Deposing Maduro, however, could find some measure of vindication
00:50if what replaces it is democracy, stability,
00:54and renewed prosperity for the Venezuelan people.
00:57That was more or less the result of the U.S. invasion of Panama in 1989.
01:04But whether U.S. policy is headed in that direction, I can't say.
01:10President Trump has spoken of running, the U.S. running Venezuela.
01:16Secretary Rubio has backed away from that.
01:21The United States seems to have little interest in a democratic transition
01:28to the Venezuelan opposition, which won the last election, by all accounts.
01:36Instead, the U.S. seems to be counting on some sort of arrangement
01:40with the rest of the Maduro regime, which is still in power.
01:45So a great deal of uncertainty.
01:48And the U.S. is staring into a dark room.
01:53And it is not clear to me what's at the other side.
01:56I want to bring in Casey Singh as well.
02:00Ambassador Singh, you know, when you look at the developments
02:03and India's response, to say it's very, very measured concern,
02:09but not condemnation in a fast-evolving geopolitical situation,
02:13do you think it's the prudent line to take?
02:15Look, I think there are many legal elements to it,
02:22but I think there are three basic ways, three basic reasons
02:26how you can, or justification, you can intervene
02:29and go and grab somebody from another country.
02:31One is you have the U.N. Security Council approval,
02:34which they don't have in this case.
02:36Second is the other country approves, which they didn't,
02:39because you grabbed the president.
02:41And the third is that you say self-defense.
02:43Now, U.S. is not talking of self-defense.
02:46They're using self-defense, saying drugs were coming to us
02:49and drugs are killing people in America.
02:51And hence, it is self-defense to go and get him.
02:54Now, that itself is questionable
02:55because fentanyl is really not coming from Venezuela.
02:59And then the reasons given by U.S. they go on wearing.
03:03The Southern Command Chief, General Le Lede,
03:06she said, no, it's got nothing to do with democracy.
03:09It's got to do with oil.
03:10It's got to do with minerals.
03:11So you're getting different arguments from different people.
03:14You've got the European Commission.
03:1626 countries have signed a statement.
03:18And they've said, we are not for Maduro.
03:20We think there should be an orderly transition
03:22to a popularly elected government.
03:25No, you can't use illegal means to do it.
03:28So there is a debate.
03:29In fact, U.N. Security Council is probably meeting
03:31as we discussed this.
03:33They're meeting today.
03:35And this will be brought up by China
03:36and by other countries and by Russia,
03:39the permanent members,
03:40and probably even England and France.
03:42The French have taken a position on this.
03:44And then what has happened is,
03:45I think the danger is that President Trump
03:47is feeling so emboldened by this
03:49that he's threatening Colombia.
03:51Then he's threatening Greenland.
03:53Then he's back to, again, many of Cuba.
03:56So he's threatening all those.
03:57So he is saying this is the Monroe Doctrine
03:59of the 19th century.
04:01And we can intervene wherever we want.
04:02Now, what nobody has told him is
04:04the Monroe Doctrine was
04:06because the countries in Latin America
04:08had attained independence
04:09from Portugal and Spain.
04:11So the American president was saying,
04:13no, don't intervene in their independence.
04:16They were not saying,
04:17don't come to Latin America to trade.
04:19Now, that argument has been taken
04:21by President Trump.
04:22He's calling it the Monroe Doctrine.
04:26And that means that he can intervene
04:28wherever he wants.
04:30And anything which is there in Latin America,
04:32South America, Central America,
04:34they will intervene and they will grab it.
04:36And this is really something
04:38going back to colonial times, 19th century.
04:41I think it's going to lead to international debate.
04:44And particularly if he steps in on Greenland,
04:47I think it causes a serious problem
04:48between NATO and US.
04:51There would be a very wide split
04:53which can have implications.
04:55We don't know where this is headed.
04:57Also, we don't know.
04:58Wherever Americans have intervened in the past,
05:01the result has not been very good
05:02with Afghanistan.
05:03No, it was Iraq.
05:04They were not able to bring democracy.
05:06And in this case, the final point
05:08that the ones who won the election,
05:10which was Gonsalves
05:11and the Nobel Prize winner,
05:13Muchado,
05:14they've been dumped by America.
05:16Now, if you want to take,
05:17you know, the dictator out,
05:20then call those people in
05:21and have a transition
05:22to an actually elected government
05:24which won the last election.
05:27So, all that has been sidelined.
05:29They've cut a deal
05:30with the current president,
05:32Rodriguez.
05:34And I think they are,
05:35they're trying to see
05:36if they can get control of oil,
05:38control of the minerals.
05:39And that is what this whole game is about.
05:41I don't think there's a stable path available.
05:44Fair point.
05:45So, Dr. Berg,
05:46less about taking a dictator out,
05:48more about the fact
05:49that Venezuela accounts
05:50for 20% of the world's oil produce
05:53and the U.S. military intervention
05:55was more about oil than anything else.
05:58Well, the U.S. oil refineries,
06:00particularly in the south,
06:01are equipped to deal with
06:03what is known as extra heavy crude
06:04that Venezuela produces.
06:06Very few countries in the world
06:07are in that crude
06:09and their refineries
06:10are not equipped to deal with that.
06:12So, in a way,
06:12you could argue
06:13that this is tailor-made
06:15for oil refineries
06:17in southern United States.
06:18But mind you,
06:19none of these oil
06:20that Donald Trump covets
06:22are going to be in the pipeline
06:24anytime soon.
06:25Venezuela has a fairly dilapidated
06:27oil production infrastructure
06:29ruined by decades of sanctions.
06:32It produces about
06:33a million barrels a day,
06:34which really does not make
06:35any difference
06:36in the global oil output picture,
06:38less than 1% of global output.
06:40countries in the world
06:41that really depends heavily
06:43on Venezuelan oil,
06:44including that China.
06:46And therefore,
06:47it doesn't have
06:48major systemic implications
06:49for the oil market,
06:51for oil production,
06:52or oil price for that matter.
06:55Unless the U.S. Congress
06:56comes up with a legal framework,
06:59it'll be actually very hard
07:00for U.S. oil companies also
07:01to start devoting billions
07:04of dollars of investments
07:05in Venezuela,
07:05because what happens
07:07when they're around
07:09and they're
07:10believe that this
07:12adventure was done
07:14on the premises.
07:16So I think that
07:18there's very well
07:20economic reasoning
07:22behind this,
07:24although it is the easy sell.
07:26It's about oil,
07:27and we're going to seize it.
07:28But when we look
07:29at the fundamentals,
07:31the economy of Venezuela
07:32does not look like
07:33a very persuasive case.
07:36All right.
07:36Well, the sheer fact
07:37that India also has investments
07:38in Venezuela's oil sector,
07:40do we look at this
07:40as an opportunity?
07:41We're going to come back
07:42on that question.
07:43But Daniel,
07:44Mr. Freed,
07:45I want to bring you back
07:45into this conversation.
07:46What next now?
07:47Because there's talk
07:48of Greenland,
07:49there's talk of Iran,
07:50you know,
07:50as a former diplomat.
07:53How do you look at it?
07:54What would be
07:55the next target?
08:00President Trump
08:01likes to keep
08:03other Americans
08:05and other countries
08:06off balance.
08:07He likes to threaten.
08:09He likes to brag.
08:12It is not clear to me
08:14that Trump
08:15is going to act
08:16quickly
08:17against any
08:19of these countries.
08:21His political base
08:23voted for him
08:26because he promised
08:26to extract
08:27the United States
08:28from foreign entanglements.
08:31Now he seems
08:31to be getting back
08:32into it.
08:34The operation
08:35to seize Maduro
08:36was frankly brilliant.
08:38It was
08:38just a textbook
08:41perfect operation,
08:42very impressive.
08:44But
08:44the outcome
08:45in Venezuela
08:46is far from clear.
08:49And
08:49it may not be
08:51as easy
08:52as Trump
08:53imagines.
08:55It's easier
08:56to conduct
08:57a quick
08:57military operation
08:59than it is
09:00to help
09:00set up
09:01a country
09:01or as Trump
09:02says,
09:03to run a country
09:04or as Marco Rubio
09:06says,
09:06to basically
09:07intimidate
09:08the remnants
09:09of the Maduro regime
09:10to cooperating
09:11with us.
09:12It's not clear
09:14that the U.S.
09:14has a viable
09:15or any plan
09:16for Venezuela.
09:17to get you back
09:24into this conversation,
09:25the fact is that
09:26India
09:27has
09:28communicated
09:30to the U.S.
09:31that if it is
09:31expected to curtail
09:32its oil purchases
09:33from Russia,
09:34it must permit
09:35other markets
09:35like Venezuela.
09:37Do you see this
09:37as an opportunity?
09:38India also has
09:39investments
09:39where Venezuela's
09:40oil sector
09:40is concerned.
09:41I don't think
09:43Venezuela is
09:44the only source
09:45because as
09:46has just been put
09:46for them to go up
09:47from about
09:48just under
09:49a million barrels
09:49a day
09:50to a higher
09:51production level.
09:52The highest
09:52was 3 or 4 million
09:53a couple of decades ago.
09:55It's going to take
09:56a long time
09:57because they don't
09:57have the pipelines.
09:59It's a very heavy
10:00crude.
10:01It's very difficult
10:01to pull it out
10:02and then to transport it
10:03and to really develop
10:05that infrastructure
10:06and that's assuming
10:07things remain
10:08stable within Venezuela
10:09because don't forget
10:10the army is sulking.
10:12This was not
10:13a proper military operation.
10:15I think this was
10:16a connivance
10:17on the part
10:18of domestic forces
10:19which allowed
10:19the president
10:20to be removed.
10:21Only most of the people
10:22killed his personal
10:24Cuban guard.
10:26So it's a very long journey
10:27and there are
10:28much safer places
10:29to buy oil from.
10:31Than Venezuela.
10:32Yeah, Venezuela
10:33is not about to sell
10:34the oil on a discount
10:35and there are many other
10:35and the transportation costs.
10:38Fair point.
10:39Dr. Big,
10:39I'm running out of time
10:40so I just want to quickly
10:41get in Dr. Big
10:42for an intervention.
10:44How do you think
10:44China is going to react?
10:45Because not just a customer
10:46it's also a big investor
10:47where Venezuela's
10:49oil industry is concerned.
10:52So China is quite
10:54deeply entangled
10:55in the Venezuelan economy.
10:56You have perhaps
10:57more than 100,000
10:59Chinese nationals
11:00who work in Venezuela
11:01and of course
11:02Chinese oil companies
11:03have substantial investments
11:04in Venezuela.
11:05If this is a way
11:08to push China out
11:10it's going to be
11:10very problematic.
11:12I don't think
11:12that is part of
11:13President Trump's design
11:15because I haven't really
11:16heard the word
11:17China mentioned
11:18in any of these discussions.
11:20It would actually
11:20be a very dangerous
11:21geopolitical escalation
11:23if that were to happen.
11:24Mind you,
11:24even in Iraq
11:25after the U.S.
11:27went ahead
11:27with this intervention
11:28there were fears
11:30that the Chinese investment
11:31in Iraq
11:32would be under jeopardy.
11:33Actually,
11:33that didn't happen at all.
11:34In fact,
11:35once things stabilized
11:36China actually doubled up
11:37on it.
11:39Venezuela,
11:40in my view,
11:41would probably
11:42follow a similar script.
11:44I don't think U.S.
11:45is in there
11:45to push China out
11:46because it's not like
11:48China has had
11:48major success
11:50in influencing
11:51a Maduro regime
11:53in any way
11:53or protecting it.
11:55The Americans went in
11:56and just abducted him
11:57just like that.
11:58So I don't think
11:58if there were
11:59any military questions
12:00we would be discussing
12:02in this particular
12:03line of reasoning
12:04it would be very different.
12:05So I would say
12:05that as far as
12:06China is concerned
12:07they have to watch
12:08and see.
12:09They will also say
12:10that if your neighborhood
12:11is that separate
12:12saying what about
12:13our neighborhood
12:13is that then
12:14our plaything.
12:16I appreciate
12:17all three gentlemen
12:17for joining us.
12:18We're going to keep
12:19a keen eye
12:20on all developments
12:21as they take place.
12:22Thank you
12:22for watching
12:23and we'll see you
12:25tomorrow night.
12:25and we'll see you
12:26next time.
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