00:00And by the way, Tyree Kill has made a lot of money in his NFL career looking to make more.
00:04He's no longer a Miami Dolphin.
00:05So, Joe, the question is, Tyree Kill's next football team, he was recently in Kansas City.
00:11And, oh, yeah, they're the favorite now to land Tyree Kill at a 67% chance,
00:16followed by Jacksonville, Las Vegas, Buffalo, and Los Angeles.
00:19How about that?
00:20Could he go back to Kansas City as a reunion here, Joe?
00:24Well, we just saw the Dolphins regime, the new one, right?
00:28Release Hill to clear what?
00:30Nearly $23 million in cap space.
00:33And almost immediately, of course, Tyree Kill posts a Snapchat and Geo tags himself in Kansas City
00:39wearing his old Chiefs uniform, right?
00:42So, retail investors saw that post.
00:45Also looking at it with Chris Jones, openly recruiting him on X.
00:49And, yeah, they all smashed the yes button.
00:52Now we're looking at Kansas City at 73 cents.
00:55But the market is pricing a social media post instead of, like, it's a signed contract.
01:01So, the reality is, Hill's a 31-year-old receiver coming off a devastating dislocated knee and torn ACL.
01:09I mean, are we really sure that anybody's going to be knocking even Kansas City?
01:14Is he even going to be healthy enough to play in 2026?
01:18I'm looking to short Kansas City at 73 cents.
01:22That's a massive premium for a nostalgia narrative that's not based in reality.
01:27It's such a good point you bring up, Joe, because so many times I'm like, yes, perfect fit.
01:31Go back to Kansas City.
01:32This isn't the Tyree Kill five years ago.
01:34He's coming off a devastating injury, and he's getting older.
01:37However, if there's one team I'm looking at here in the Cal State marketplace, it's not Kansas City who's in
01:42the lead.
01:42It's not second place Jacksonville.
01:44It's not Las Vegas, which I think will be a terrible fit for him, to be honest.
01:48It's the Buffalo Bills trading at 34%.
01:50They are desperate for help at wide receiver, and could that be a chance?
01:54If you take a look at a $100 investment, would pay back $455.
01:58If any team makes the most sense here for me, Joe, it's the Buffalo Bills.
02:03And again, this is all risk-reward, Donnie, right?
02:07The risk is too great that he won't even pass a physical to tie up 73 cents with Kansas City.
02:14But to take a shot there with Buffalo, who we know might very well be willing to take that shot
02:20if he shows that he actually has a little left in the tank, I like the way you're thinking there.
02:25Here's an awesome topic here.
02:27The Miami Dolphins.
02:28Oh, wait, Tyree Kill.
02:29Yeah, he's already been cut and released from Miami.
02:31Could it be Tua Tagovailoa on his way out the door as well?
02:35Now, there are caveats here.
02:37You're saving a little bit by cutting Tyree Kill.
02:39You are ruining your salary cap if you release Tua Tagovailoa to the tune of maybe a third of your
02:45cap combined
02:46for a player that doesn't play for you.
02:48Now, if Miami's looking to restart, maybe just rip the Band-Aid off right away.
02:51But if we're looking at the markets here, Joe, stays with Miami or retires from professional football,
02:56is the slight favorite at 25%.
02:58The Rams at 19%, like rehabbing there.
03:01Atlanta or Arizona.
03:03Who is Tua Tagovailoa's next football team, Joe?
03:07Well, it's funny because the market's still giving a 27% probability that he either stays in Miami or retires.
03:14But yet we know the new GM there, John Eric Sullivan, and head coach Jeff Halfley, have already decided they're
03:21cutting massive contracts.
03:23They're looking to clear space and rebuild this thing, right?
03:27So the stays portion of that 27-cent contract I think is effectively dead equity.
03:33To me, you invest in somebody like Atlanta at 20 cents because if you're shorting the stays prop, you need
03:41to allocate some capital to a logical landing spot.
03:44And Atlanta makes the most sense for a distressed asset quarterback looking for a dome and offensive weapons.
03:52Do not pay 27 cents for a player whose own front office has already packed his bags.
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