00:03Hello and welcome, you are watching Good Returns, I am with you, I am with you, I am with you.
00:08Geopolitical tensions have been greatly increased and the world is filled with the bazaars.
00:14The bazaars also have no volatility.
00:19Your portfolio of portfolios are not very big.
00:25Panic selling, investors are panic.
00:27But what is a new buying opportunity in this panic?
00:31Do we need to protect our sentiments and bear in the bazaars?
00:37We will try to understand all these things in this video.
00:40We will try to go to the bazaars and your portfolio.
00:44And what can we impact on our portfolio?
00:47What are the fundamentals?
00:48We will understand all these things.
00:50We have a very special guest here.
00:53Ketan Gujarati Ji is with us from Quantum AMC.
00:55Welcome to Good Returns.
00:59You are welcome to your show.
01:02Yes sir, bazaar is so volatile.
01:06Bazaar is so much better to understand.
01:08Bazaar's conditions and moods and moods.
01:10Bazaar is so much better to understand.
01:12This is why I want to know about the share market.
01:15How do you feel?
01:16Bazaar is a long-term impact?
01:18This is a long-term impact.
01:19This is a long-term impact.
01:20This is a long-term impact.
01:21This is a long-term impact.
01:22This is a long-term impact.
02:04This is a long-term impact.
02:06This is the short term volatility.
02:07which is a feature of the market.
02:12It's not that something is not coming, it's coming.
02:16We need to have friends with it.
02:20We need to understand that every year there will be a correction.
02:24When the market can break 10% of 10% of the market.
02:27Now, in this case, the market is struggling.
02:32If it's too long, then we'll get two things.
02:37First, one thing is that we have a lot of money.
02:41The other thing is that it's a lot of money.
02:44The other things will be a lot of impact on the other things.
02:47Companies, their pockets, their prices.
02:51This is why the market is getting worse.
02:54And the prices are getting worse.
02:56Because they can get a little bit.
02:58They can get worse.
03:00Yes.
03:01Sir, now the market is confused.
03:03Do we expect that there will be more confusion in the other days?
03:10Yes, of course.
03:11There will be more confusion in the other days.
03:13But we will think about the confusion or the risk.
03:17This will affect the next year's earnings or two years' earnings.
03:22The rest of the economy of the situation is very strong.
03:27Otherwise, if you will see India's debt to GDP, which is called the corporate balance sheet.
03:34If you will see the market in the market, if you will see the margin in the stocks,
03:40if you will see it,
03:41then we will have a better position of the other markets.
03:46This is where we can understand.
03:47And we don't think that this thing will affect the next two years' earnings in the next two years' earnings.
03:53So, we will calculate the intrinsic value of each company.
03:57So, what would be fair for a company?
04:01Based on its earnings and its long-term potential.
04:04So, there will not be a lot of changes in a quarter of the weakness.
04:09So, I think that this will be a short term.
04:12There will be volatility in short term.
04:15Long-term returns will not impact.
04:17Long-term returns will not impact.
04:20But if we are talking about long-term,
04:22it will be the most important for the bears to stay stable for the time of FIIs.
04:27Where the selling is very fast.
04:30When the FIIs is very fast,
04:32when that is the situation is right,
04:35we expect that FIIs is still floating.
04:36Because we have seen that buying started.
04:39And it also says that the valuation of the bearer's earnings is so attractive.
04:42that we will be back again, but this whole scenario is that FII's selling will trigger
04:49that.
04:50Yes, that's right.
04:51So FII's buying usually, that's when the earnings growth is much more.
04:57So last year, we will see that FII's recovery was so much.
05:01This was the reason that we didn't have growth, which was the other emerging markets
05:06in the US.
05:06That's why FII's recovery was so much.
05:07So we got a lot of AI-related stocks, which were good.
05:12But in this world, we had hope that in this February,
05:17that we started to increase the earnings and earnings in India.
05:21And in 2017, the earnings growth is very good.
05:28So FII's buying was so much.
05:30We also thought that if it's pan out,
05:34it can be a good return.
05:37But now the new risk is out of the blue.
05:40We didn't do this,
05:42because this is not a real risk.
05:47We didn't get the risk of the risk.
05:49We didn't get the risk of the risk.
06:06foreign
06:13foreign
06:13foreign
06:13foreign
06:13foreign
06:21foreign
06:26foreign
06:27of return are good. So, the expectation is that we need some return to compare, because
06:34they think that India's risk has become higher, but they are different with the price
06:40of selling. But I think that never seems to be the one that I think the return is a
06:49objective view of India, but just the currency movement will be lower, and the current
06:55current account deficit how to move it, it's a bit of a fear, so it's a bit of a selling
06:59going on.
07:00Sir, you said that FIIs are trying to break the price of the price, so do we expect that
07:07it will become a bottom?
07:09I don't know, but we will think that if you look at the other way, the DIs buying is
07:16very strong.
07:17It's two reasons, one is the SIP flows, the SIP flows are coming, and they will also
07:24be because it's a long term story, India's savings in the equity market, and the other
07:30means that DIs is a long term investor, they don't have another chance to invest in the
07:35future.
07:36Like FIIs has been, there is Korea, Japan, US, Europe, so they can invest anywhere else.
07:42But for DIs, India, either you can invest in equity or bond.
07:47So, DIs investing will continue, and the inflows will continue.
07:51So, in these two reasons, I think that one is getting support in the market quickly, and
07:57especially in those places where the valuation is very attractive.
08:01We understand that the large cap has been very attractive, and the long term return
08:07which is being made in equity, is that it has become a loss here.
08:11That's why we have made positive views.
08:13Yes, sir, if you have a positive view, then you must know which sectors are looking good
08:20in this crisis situation.
08:22Which sectors are looking good in this crisis situation?
08:24Which sectors are looking good in the radar?
08:25Long term, if you can see it, if you can see it, if you can see it.
08:27Defense is an attractive bit, what is it?
08:30Defense is a very romantic mode in this sector.
08:34If you can see it, in the last 10 years, the warfare has changed.
08:39First, there was an army that was happening.
08:41There were tanks, attacks, attacks, guns and rifles used.
08:46Now, these are all modern warfare, where there are many drones and missiles.
08:52So, these are all new technologies that have changed.
08:55So, these are all new technologies that have changed.
08:56And so, there are a lot of investments in the defense sector,
08:59and the government's behalf.
09:01So, I understand that this is a good long term story.
09:05This is a long term story for 10 years.
09:06It's been a long term story for 10 years.
09:07It's been a long term.
09:08But, in the past 3-4 years,
09:11the defense shares have been so increased,
09:13that we are looking for a good price,
09:16and then we will join.
09:17Now, we have no addition to it.
09:20But, the rest of the story is pretty good.
09:23But, it will be long time for a long time.
09:26We will have no need to buy it.
09:27We will have no need to buy it.
09:28We will have no need to buy it.
09:29We will have no need to buy it.
09:29From the fundamental perspective,
09:30which are the risks that you have now countered?
09:34The first risk was that,
09:36the last year, the one was the tariff.
09:40Where we didn't know this,
09:42that if the tariff has come,
09:44then there are 2-3 things that can be problematic in long term,
09:49which is the FDI flows.
09:50For India, FDI is the foreign direct investment.
09:54So, foreign investors invest in two ways.
09:57In India, one is the shares of the market,
09:59or the plant, the machinery,
10:01or the business of their own website,
10:03they can set up here.
10:05So, the website that they can set up here,
10:08they can stop here.
10:09Because in India, there was a big penalty,
10:12and there was a fear that,
10:14if the FDI is low,
10:17then we can impact the growth rate.
10:20But the risk is totally gone.
10:23The other risk is that,
10:25the earnings growth rate,
10:39there is a risk of the value of the share price.
10:46can be. So, earning is 2-4%
10:48from the value of 5%
10:50from the total of 10%
10:52from the total of 10%
10:52from the total of 10%
10:53So, investors are
10:55keeping the prices
10:57that are getting
10:58additional, so you have
11:00a sharp fall
11:03that is a lot of share
11:04because investors
11:06are thinking
11:07that if I do it
11:09and buy it
11:10then it will be
11:11probably the chances
11:12of getting
11:12that is why
11:13it will be 10%
11:14from the fall
11:15versus 2-3%
11:16Yes, sir,
11:19I will ask you a question
11:22but I will keep some numbers
11:23in front of you and our viewers
11:25as well. SIP inflow
11:28Amphi data
11:28is in February. SIP inflow
11:31is 29,845 crore
11:33which if we compare
11:34January to month on month basis
11:37is 4% less.
11:39Equity mutual funds
11:41its net inflow
11:42is 24,029 crore
11:458%
11:46in February 25,978 crore
11:50but year on year basis
11:51is 11%
11:53and if we see
11:55flexi cap, mid cap, small cap
11:57all of these are good growth
11:59but gold and silver
12:01ETFs
12:02are very good
12:04if I say January
12:0678% inflow
12:08we have a
12:10scenario
12:10portfolio
12:11to reject
12:12and if there is
12:17how do we reject
12:18portfolio
12:18if you have an advisor
12:21you have to
12:22look at risk profile
12:25and look at asset allocation
12:30for AMC
12:31we offer multi asset funds
12:32where the fund manager
12:36calls based on
12:37which asset is
12:38and which asset is
12:40good return
12:44is another way to look at it
12:46I will say
12:47I will say
12:48that in today's
12:48the risk
12:50we understand
12:51that large cap
12:54portfolio
12:55will be safe
12:57because
12:58there is risk reward
12:59so
13:00we are
13:01we are
13:02more biased
13:07but at the same time
13:09small cap
13:12small cap
13:14is not cheap
13:15now
13:15individual shares
13:17have been
13:1830-40%
13:19so
13:20it is a discount
13:22fair value
13:23so
13:24you have to pick and choose
13:27so
13:27we
13:27do
13:30stock picking
13:31so
13:31we call it as
13:33stock pickers market
13:34that the stocks
13:35have more upside
13:37potential
13:38are
13:38there
13:40so
13:40I think
13:41large cap
13:42as a whole
13:43market is offering
13:44very good risk reward
13:45in our opinion
13:46but in small and mid caps
13:48it has to be
13:48stock specific
13:50it has to be
13:51stock specific
13:52thank you so much
13:53Ketan
14:14thank you so much for joining us today
14:16thank you so much
14:17thank you so much
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