00:00Let's just start with the labor market, then we get to the broader economic backdrop.
00:03Just how fragile are things, particularly the insight that we got from the payrolls report over the past week?
00:08You know, John, this is a peculiar time because it's a time when you have to separate a pretty strong
00:14labor market with very weak hiring.
00:18They are two different things.
00:21And if you look at the hiring we've seen, it's been concentrated in certain industries.
00:26And so the labor market overall, Mike McKee just reported it, there's very few firings.
00:31There's very few layoffs.
00:32We're at historical lows.
00:33It's pretty strong.
00:34It's pretty robust when you look at pay gains.
00:37But the hiring is weak.
00:39The uncertainty is leading firms to be more cautious.
00:42And that is the distinction that is hard for people to get their minds around.
00:46Do you expect those two differences, those conditions to reconcile?
00:51Eventually, sure.
00:52I mean, we're actually seeing at ADP a pretty solid hiring path.
00:56We reported on Tuesday that as of February 21st, hiring was tracking over the last four weeks at about 60
01:03,000,
01:04which was in line with what we said for the February ADP report.
01:08That's very different than what the government is showing right now with that February report.
01:13But what you're going to see, I think, is a lot of choppiness.
01:16The reason why the markets didn't really respond to this low number for February from the government payrolls is that
01:22they averaged January and February.
01:24And they got right around what they expected for that two-month average.
01:28And that average is the point for the markets.
01:30But it's not the point for Main Street.
01:32That volatility matters a lot.
01:35And if we are indeed seeing huge swings in hiring from month to month after it's been seasonally adjusted,
01:41that is not a great place for workers to be right now.
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