- 11 hours ago
In this coverage, Rajdeep Sardesai spoke with the former Foreign Secretary of India, Shivshankar Menon, about the ongoing crisis in the Middle East involving the US, Israel, and Iran. During the conversation, Menon questioned India's "strategic silence" over the ongoing crisis.
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00:00Good evening, hello and welcome. You're with the news today, your prime time destination news,
00:05newsmakers, talking points this Tuesday night. We have plenty packed for you on the show tonight.
00:12Restauranteers across India are winding down operations or scaling them down because of an LPG shortage.
00:21The government says all is well. We'll do a reality check. All gas are genuine concern.
00:27Will India's strategic silence on the Iran war in the early days pay dividends or not?
00:34Among my guests today is the former Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon in a no-holds-barred interview.
00:41He has questions to raise over India's foreign policy.
00:45And 10 days after a missile strike killed over 160 schoolgirls in Iran,
00:51our OSINT team will tell you exactly what happened, who is responsible for the killing of innocent girls,
00:59and who decides Iran's, Iran war's endgame.
01:04One of the world's leading analysts, Sita Parsi, will be among my special guests tonight.
01:10So we've packed plenty on the show as always.
01:12But first, it's time for the nine headlines.
01:17The West Asia war now triggers a major LPG shortage in India.
01:24Centre insists crisis resolved.
01:26Union Minister Hardi Puri insists no need to panic
01:30as the government now in touch with 40 nations to procure energy.
01:37Crude oil prices tank after Donald Trump signals that Iran conflict to be over very soon.
01:45No immediate hike in fuel prices expected in India.
01:49Finance Minister Sita Raman insists that the crude spike will not affect the GDP projections.
01:58The Prime Minister asks all ministries to work together to reduce the impact of the West Asia war on Indians.
02:05Opposition stays adamant, wants a debate on the West Asia war in Parliament.
02:14Amidst the raging war, Donald Trump says it's possible he could hold talks with Iran.
02:19Tehran sets conditions, says ceasefire only if we get assurances that attacks won't happen in the future.
02:29Showdown in Parliament over a no-confidence motion against Speaker Om Bidla.
02:34Congress slams the Speaker for shielding the centre and acting as its agent.
02:39Home Minister Shah calls Congress the most irresponsible opposition ever.
02:45West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee ends her five-day-long dharna
02:50after the Supreme Court orders formation of an appellate tribunal of ex-high court judges
02:55for appeals against exclusions from the voter list.
03:01After Supreme Court wrapped NCRT issues a public apology over corruption in Judiciary Chapter,
03:07all copies of the Class 8 textbook also withdrawn after the Supreme Court imposes a ban.
03:15And months after the scheduling mess, Indigo CEO Peter Helbers resigns,
03:20cites personal reasons.
03:21Company's Managing Director Rahul Bhatia takes charge of the management on an interim basis.
03:30And Indian Pacer Arsteep Singh is fined 15% of his match fee by ICC
03:35for breaching a code of conduct over the throwing a ball at Darrell Mitchell
03:40during the T20 World Cup Finals against New Zealand.
03:56The story we are breaking is one that should concern each and every one of us.
04:00The LPG shortage.
04:02Let's get you the very latest of what the government is saying.
04:06The government is saying that despite the West Asia war disruption,
04:10global oil supply chains are now being restored.
04:14Sources saying government is procuring energy from 40 countries
04:19and has expanded its horizon to purchase to meet energy needs of the country.
04:25Union Minister Hardeep Singh Puri claiming that India is in touch with prospective countries
04:31to further the government's bid to fulfil energy needs of the country as soon as possible.
04:36Governments insisting no need to panic and is meeting the oil and energy needs
04:42and says the interests of people will be served by importing oil from more countries.
04:48So that's a background briefing that Hardeep Puri has given.
04:51Piyush Mishra is our reporter on the spot.
04:53Piyush, 48 hours ago the government was saying all is well.
04:58We have enough energy stocks to last 40 days.
05:00Suddenly reality seems to have hit the government.
05:04Now the government seems to be saying that they will procure if necessary energy sources
05:09from different countries.
05:10What has suddenly changed?
05:11Is the government in control?
05:13Or have they been taken by surprise by the LPG shortage in several parts of the country?
05:20Well, as we have seen as to how in the last few hours the government has changed its strategy.
05:25Yesterday the Ministry of Petroleum had also issued advisory to all oil refineries companies
05:31to produce more and more LPG to ensure that the domestic needs are fulfilled.
05:37And the sources are now confirming that in the last 24 hours the production has also increased.
05:43It has jumped to 10% extra.
05:45So the government is now taking all precautionary measures to ensure that no supply chain is hit.
05:51At the same time what we are also given to understand from all sources is that
05:54you know since the entire situation escalated in Middle East
05:58in mid of January the government had started talking to various other countries.
06:03Earlier they used to import oil and energy sources from 20 different countries.
06:07But after that situation and looking at the evolving situation now the government
06:12will have confirmed that it is in talks with around 40 countries to ensure that there is
06:17such a supply of energy sources.
06:20Ardhya Puri has also said that the government will ensure that all domestic needs are met
06:25every day and for that the government is putting all the effort.
06:32Okay.
06:33Piyush Mishra there joining us with the very latest.
06:36Now that's what the government is saying that the energy needs will be met.
06:39But look at it.
06:39Just 48 hours ago government sources were saying don't worry.
06:43We are in control.
06:4448 hours later there is a reality check.
06:47Because from Bengaluru to Kolkata via Mumbai, India's restaurants in particular, hotels in
06:53particular and even some individuals are claiming that they are facing a shortage of LPG cylinders.
06:59It's worse with commercial LPG cylinders.
07:02This is a ripple effect of the ongoing conflict in West Asia which has tightened global gas supplies.
07:09The government saying the situation will stabilize soon.
07:12Businesses though are saying that the squeeze is already being felt.
07:18Will this crisis now transcend from restaurants and commercial establishments to your homes?
07:24That's the big question.
07:26Let's take a look at this reality check.
07:36A war thousands of kilometers away is now hitting Indian kitchens.
07:43We are at Nisarga Grand Restaurant which supplies food the entire day.
07:49Whether it is a breakfast or lunch or where people come in large number here to have.
07:53They had a stock of six cylinders they can use for the next day.
07:57That is today.
07:58And whatever the cylinder they had in stock which has already been used and it will be used for the
08:04entire day.
08:05And they don't have stock for tomorrow.
08:07In Bangalore there is only about 20% of supply that has happened in Bangalore yesterday for smaller hotel years.
08:13So as of now I have only cylinders for today.
08:18We are reporting from Hotel Ananda, one of the busiest vegetarian restaurants in the city.
08:24It's not just fear mongering, the struggle is real.
08:27In fact per day the hotel utilizes about 10 LPG cylinders but today they are fully running out of it.
08:33In fact for lunch every day they used to provide variety rice but today they have cut down on the
08:38variety rice owing to the short supply of LPG cylinders.
08:44It's a big deal of commercial gas business.
08:47It's a big deal of problem.
08:49It's a big deal of daily supply.
08:51It's a big deal of 600-650 cylinders.
08:53It's a big deal of daily supply but now there are only one cylinders.
08:57It's a big deal of customers, continuous phone, but we don't have any cylinder supply.
09:25Right now you can see all the raw materials are ready.
09:27But the shortage in LPG gas cylinders have led to the hotel halt.
09:33Its functions and cooking and preparation are still to be done as the LPG cylinder is now awaited after the
09:41shortage that is being going on in the city of Hyderabad.
09:44This gas car arrangement, I haven't gone to the house for two days.
09:48It's 4-5 cylinders.
09:50Now it's 2 cylinders with the difficulty.
09:52We drop the business lunch hour and we are in Ramzan and we are starting to work at night.
10:00These are the burners that remains to be switched off as we speak since this morning.
10:05There have not been any official communication to the owners of the hotels and restaurants that there will be scarcity
10:12of LPGs.
10:13But as the government have said that they are prioritizing the consumption of the domestic LPGs.
10:19Henceforth, there is a severe scarcity as far as non-domestic LPGs are concerned.
10:28Now many of the restaurants are relying on the P&G gas line but many are still relying on the
10:36commercial cylinders and this is where the real impact is because remember the households have been given a priority but
10:44the scarcity is going to hit not just the commercial interest but also the household cylinders.
10:51To tackle the situation, the central government has taken several steps.
10:55Essential Commodities Act invoked.
10:59Oil ministry panels set up to examine supply disruptions.
11:03Refineries asked to maximize LPG output.
11:07LPG refill booking cycle extended.
11:11Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri also met Prime Minister Modi with External Affairs Minister S.J. Shankan present to review
11:18the situation.
11:19For now, the squeezes being felt by most is India's restaurant industry.
11:24But the larger question remains, is this a real shortage or a crisis driven by panic and hoarding?
11:31Bureau Report, India Today.
11:35So let's raise one big question right at the very outset.
11:40As the war comes home with these LPG shortages, what can India really do to in some way de-escalate
11:50tensions in West Asia?
11:52That's the big question I want to pose to the former National Security Advisor and Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon,
11:59widely regarded as one of India's leading foreign policy voices.
12:04Appreciate it.
12:05Mr. Menon, you're joining us.
12:07The Foreign Minister Dr. Jai Shankar told Parliament that India is committed to de-escalation, to dialogue, to diplomacy, to
12:16resolve the West Asia crisis.
12:18Do you believe that India has any role at all to play, given the kind of power gains going on
12:25between Iran and Israel and America?
12:30Well, there's two big limitations on what we can or could do.
12:36One is, of course, the fact that this is a war initiated by the U.S. and Israel, who initiated
12:42the attack.
12:43So unless we can persuade them, that, frankly, I'm not sure how much influence we have at this moment,
12:52because we're now talking the psychology of individual leaders who seem committed to this war and to the attack on
13:00Iran.
13:00The other limiting factor, of course, is that you can only play some kind of mediatory role if both sides
13:12accept your bona fides, regard you as relatively neutral,
13:16and if both sides want a ceasefire.
13:20Now, today, it seems to me that of the three parties and main parties involved, the U.S. say maybe
13:27could be satisfied with a quick ending,
13:31but we have no idea, frankly, because they keep shifting the goalposts.
13:35We've heard different explanations for why they're doing this from the president.
13:39Israel and Iran seem to want a much longer conflict because to serve their ends.
13:46In Iran's case, to be able to use her advantages, which is to drive up, create pain for U.S.
13:53allies in the Gulf,
13:55drive up oil prices and generally, therefore, create reverse leverage.
14:01And in Israel's case, to remove Iran as a real geopolitical actor.
14:06So I think there are very, there are limits on what we can do.
14:11Just advocating peace, motherhood, apple pie, diplomacy, frankly, to my mind, it sounds good, but I'm not sure how effective
14:22it can be.
14:26The reason I'm asking you is, if you look over the last 10 days, Mr. Menon, we've stayed silent or
14:32we stayed silent for at least five days after the assassination of Ali Khamenei.
14:37We did not directly question the U.S. for the sinking of a ship in the Indian Ocean.
14:43And by and large, there's a sense that we've been unwilling, at least publicly, to question Donald Trump's act of
14:50aggression or Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu's act of aggression.
14:53Do you believe that our silence has been strategic or should we have spoken out in some form early on?
15:02I think we've chosen silence actually on all the big issues over the last five years, whether it was our
15:08refusal to call a Russian invasion of Ukraine an invasion,
15:11whether it was on the slaughter in Gaza, where we abstained on resolutions in the U.N.
15:19You know, I mean, this has been a consistent pattern of behavior.
15:23And I think, ultimately, it diminishes the value of your voice.
15:28People stop listening to you if you're silent, because they're used to not listening to you.
15:31The world goes on about its business.
15:35I do believe that, frankly, when a head of state of a state you recognize in your neighborhood is assassinated
15:42illegally,
15:44for us to stay silent, not to condemn the act, not even to condole,
15:49and five days later to send the foreign secretary rather than the prime minister or the foreign minister.
15:55I find that inexplicable, quite frankly.
15:58But if you choose to step aside, stay silent, then you can't then expect to have a role.
16:08But then this is seen as strategic silence.
16:11When I speak to people in government, they say, look, this is a fast developing situation.
16:16It's very fluid.
16:17Therefore, we chose silence was part of deliberate statecraft.
16:22How do you respond that India in those early days in the Gulf War staying silent?
16:26And now, suddenly, as I said, the chickens have come home because LPG prices are being affected.
16:31There is a sense that the war is no longer restricted to the theater of war, but its impact is
16:37being felt even here in India.
16:39Can silence be viewed as strategic or statecraft?
16:43I don't see this as strategy.
16:45When you have direct interests involved, where it's going to affect you immediately.
16:50I mean, the rise in oil prices affects you immediately.
16:52The absence of fertilizer supplies affects you immediately.
16:56You've seen that LPG supplies are being cut across the country.
17:01I mean, this has happened immediately.
17:03And how is silence strategic in this situation?
17:06I find this an impossible argument.
17:08By the way, no previous government of India, not even Charan Singh's government, a temporary government, was silent when the
17:16Soviets invaded Afghanistan.
17:18He stood up and said what he thought about it.
17:20This, for me, this is really inexplicable.
17:24This is India.
17:24India.
17:25And we have our interests and we should speak for ourselves.
17:28It's not strategic to keep your mouth shut.
17:31And especially when it creates the impression that you are choosing implicitly the side of the aggressors.
17:42You use the word that the aggression itself is illegal.
17:46Now, if we, for example, had spoken out, condemned the aggression, called it illegal, condoled at the assassination of Ali
17:54Khamenei.
17:54Maybe the fear in government was that it would attract a backlash from Donald Trump.
17:59Someone who simply doesn't conform to the rules of normal political behavior.
18:03And we didn't want to get on his wrong side.
18:06The prime minister had just gone to Israel, met Benjamin Netanyahu.
18:10Do you believe, therefore, that there is a sense that we don't want to be on the wrong side, in
18:14a way, of Netanyahu and Donald Trump at this moment?
18:19I'm not sure what the wrong side is.
18:21When the deputy secretary of state stands up in the Raisina dialogue and tells you we're not going to let
18:26you rise,
18:27we won't let you do what China did to us.
18:29When, as you said, a ship gets, a ship that was participating in your exercises, gets torpedoed close to your
18:38coast.
18:39When you are told by the US administration that we allow you to import, we allow, notice the word, to
18:47import oil, which has already been loaded before March 5th.
18:52When Mr. Trump claims that he has prevented a nuclear war in the subcontinent, I think 48 times maybe at
18:59last count.
19:00I mean, I'm not sure which side you are on today and why you think you are on the right
19:06side.
19:07I don't see great US consideration for your point of view or even for your sentiments in the last few
19:16months,
19:17starting with the brutality and the way in which Indians were deported from the US.
19:23Illegal, perhaps, but certainly they were treated brutally.
19:26And H-1B visas on the list is very long.
19:29So I'm not sure what equities we are protecting here.
19:37Are you saying we should have therefore called out Donald Trump for what you call an illegal war of aggression
19:43on Iran,
19:44called out Benjamin Netanyahu, who really seems to be the one driving the war in a way?
19:49Would that have given us greater moral stature to then now play a bigger role?
19:55I think you know, I forget about moral stature, but certainly I think the world would treat you with more
20:00respect if over the last five years you had not kept your mouth shut on every important issue.
20:09If this is a strategy, it's a strategy that has failed.
20:12But there's a sense that the last thing you… Yes.
20:17Because there is a sense that the last thing you want to do is get into a war of words
20:21with someone like Donald Trump.
20:23With Donald Trump, you just keep away the noise that he makes on a daily basis because that can only
20:29further complicate matters.
20:31You don't agree with that?
20:33What I'm saying is very simple.
20:35If you have nothing to say, don't say anything.
20:38But surely India has something to say.
20:40You have a view on these issues, express your view.
20:43You don't have to get into a war of words.
20:45You're not talking to Trump only.
20:47You're talking to the world and you're saying what you think.
20:50That's it.
20:52I mean Trump doesn't seem to bother about all this, about not getting into a war of words, nor does
20:58anybody else.
20:59Every other member of the BRICS has spoken.
21:01Most developing countries have spoken and said what they think.
21:10But now the government says, at least listening to Dr. Jaishankar in parliament, he spoke about the need to respect
21:18territorial sovereignty.
21:20He spoke about the need to push for peace at the earliest, de-escalation.
21:26Do you believe these are all fine words that mean very little because it's too little, too late, that therefore
21:33we simply have now no leverage?
21:35Will the Iranians in particular trust us?
21:37Because the foreign minister has been in conversation with the Iranian foreign minister over the last couple of days as
21:43well.
21:43Do you believe Iran will see us also as an honest player in this conflict?
21:49I'm not privy to the conversations or what happened or what they said, what they did.
21:55I can only say that from my point of view, I am not interested in statements.
22:02And frankly, we have had contradictory, so many statements being made, so many leaks, so much spin surrounding this war,
22:11that for me, the only thing that matters is actions and outcomes.
22:16So I will judge each of the powers, whether it's India, whether it's Iran, whether it's the US, Israel, by
22:23what they do, rather than by what they say.
22:28Secondly, it seems to me that the important thing at the end of it is the outcomes that you arrive
22:35at.
22:36And today, there's no sign of any of these outcomes. Territorial integrity, Amir assassinating leaders, they're breaching their territorial integrity
22:44and sovereignty every day and threatening to do more of it.
22:48So I, frankly, I will wait until there's some clarity on outcomes before I pass judgment on all this.
22:59So what do you think India should do now? Now we are 11 days into this war. What is it
23:06that India can do?
23:08Should it now at least speak out and say, Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, this is an illegal war of
23:14aggression against a sovereign country.
23:16There are other ways to resolve this. Do you believe that's the way forward to speak up loudly if we
23:21claim to be particularly a leader of the global south?
23:24You know, the moment for the government to speak is over, because I think events have moved on.
23:31I hope the government decides to speak out in the future and allows a real debate on these issues,
23:37rather than just a unilateral statement in parliament, because it would convey to the world, including Iran and to the
23:44Americans,
23:45the breadth of sentiment in this country, which is important.
23:49They should know that there are various opinions in India on this.
23:54But more important than that, I think we have immediate problems to deal with.
23:58Do the practical. Find alternative sources of supply of LNG, for instance.
24:05Deal with the energy security problem.
24:07Don't assume that the US is going to stop this tomorrow and that everything is going to go back to
24:12normal.
24:12There's no going back in politics. Politics is a process.
24:17And so let's see where we can.
24:20We have enough practical things to do and go out and share it with the people.
24:24Tell the people of India where we are, what's happening, what we're doing about it.
24:28I think that will reassure people considerably. And I think that's our primary job as a country right now.
24:37Long term, whether the world becomes…
24:40So you're saying…
24:43Yeah, I'm saying that there is enough to…
24:46So you're saying there should be a full parliament…
24:48You're saying there should be a full parliament…
24:51You're saying there should be a full parliament debate on this.
24:53No, I'm saying there are multiple ways of expressing yourself.
24:54Parliament must debate the West Asia crisis?
24:57There are multiple ways of expressing yourself.
25:00Parliament debates are one way, which are actually a very good way.
25:04But there are a whole host of ways.
25:06People can express their opinions.
25:08You can tell people that, you know, follow your conscience, express yourself in articles,
25:14go out and give interviews, talk to people.
25:16And I think we need a proper discussion.
25:19This is an important enough issue that affects our future in every which way.
25:24This is our neighbourhood and what's happening to it.
25:29So it's not something that I think we can just ignore, hide our heads in the sand.
25:37Sir…
25:39Right.
25:40Sir, if I may just for a moment…
25:43You see, politicians engage in what I call is whataboutry.
25:47A lot of BJP politicians will tell you what did the Congress do when they were in power.
25:51You were also serving in the Manmohan Singh government.
25:55Did the government take a firm stand after 2611?
26:00Were we under US pressure not to attack Pakistan?
26:04Did we take a stand when Muammar Gaddafi was taken out by the NATO forces?
26:10Did we take a stand when America took out Saddam Hussein?
26:12They say it's very well to now speak out when the BJP is observing silent.
26:18But what was India's stand in that period between 2004 and 14?
26:23Actually, we made our views known on each of the issues that you've mentioned,
26:28sometimes privately, sometimes publicly, sometimes through interviews,
26:32sometimes through articles, in various ways.
26:35There were debates on all these issues in Parliament.
26:38We answered Parliament questions, start questions on some of these.
26:43And frankly, whataboutry is no answer.
26:48So, to misrepresent what happened in the past…
26:53I mean, this is a misrepresentation.
26:56To say that, oh, India did nothing…
26:58This is a misrepresentation.
27:00There was a limit to what we could do because there are limits to our powers.
27:05I mean, we can't stop the Americans from attacking Iran, even today.
27:09But certainly, we let our views be known and we tried and we maintain credibility
27:15with all sides involved.
27:21What according to you, Mr. Menend then, is the best-case scenario
27:26and the worst-case scenario from your perspective?
27:29As you see, give us the bigger picture as you're watching it unfold at the moment.
27:33Do you fear that things will get worse before they get better?
27:38And what are the immediate repercussions on India in particular?
27:43Well, the best case, of course, from our point of view, is that fear of $5 a gallon gas at
27:52the pump in the U.S.
27:53before the midterms makes the U.S. stop very soon.
28:01Hormuz reopens and all those tankers which are stuck on one side or the other manage to get moving.
28:08And at least they can.
28:11Now, the trouble is it will take time to get the LNG trains working again.
28:17But hopefully, we can come back to some semblance of normalcy relative.
28:22That's the best case.
28:24Is it likely?
28:27You know, it all depends on, as far as I can see, on the very small little decision-making circles
28:36in the U.S.
28:37because this is something that the U.S. and Israel have started.
28:40If the U.S. decides to stop, I'm not sure how long Israel can go on.
28:46The Iranians might like to carry it on.
28:50But, you know, because ultimately their fear is that if it stops, they'll be back where they were last June,
28:58with the prospect of another attack whenever it suits their opponents.
29:04But that does it so.
29:07More likely than an early stop and all the things I mentioned in the best case, I think, is a
29:12petering out of it over time.
29:14But whether it will happen in one week, two weeks, three weeks, it's very hard to say.
29:18Because you've had completely contradictory explanations for why they are doing this from the U.S.
29:25The U.S. is clearly—I mean, they've talked of regime change.
29:28They've talked of a nuclear program, which was supposed to have been obliterated, according to the president, last June.
29:35Now we're told in two weeks Iran was going to have a bomb.
29:39The missile program, Iran's behavior in the neighborhood.
29:42I mean, different explanations.
29:45So, frankly, that becomes very hard to predict.
29:53What do you see as the biggest fear from an Indian perspective?
29:57What is it about this war that we should really be worried about now?
30:04Yeah, I hope to God that our strategic oil reserve and that we build in resilience into our supply arrangements
30:11for gas, for fertilizer, and that we take those kinds of lessons from this war, where even such a short
30:20conflict, even if it ends tomorrow, where we have all our pain points, we must make sure that we eliminate
30:26those for the future.
30:33Would you have advised the Prime Minister to go to Israel on the eve of this war?
30:38Do you believe that was the right decision or hindsight is 20-20 and now today it may appear that
30:44perhaps that was the wrong time?
30:46Do you believe there is a right and wrong time for such diplomatic visits?
30:50I don't know actually why the visit took place.
30:54I mean, I'm still wondering about, quite apart from the timing, I wasn't sure what occasion the visit.
31:02And I must say the look is not good.
31:04It was to strengthen defense cooperation with Israel.
31:07It was to strengthen defense cooperation with Israel, sir.
31:10We didn't need a Prime Ministerial visit for that.
31:11I mean, those were many of the deals signed.
31:13But all that could have been done without a Prime Ministerial visit.
31:17And most of your defense cooperation with Israel is solid, has been for some time.
31:22And that doesn't require Prime Ministerial intervention.
31:26So I'm still not sure why the visit took place.
31:29And then I presume they had some reason to do it when they did.
31:33But nobody is, frankly, I'm not familiar with that.
31:36But for me, the look wasn't good, as you said, and especially with hindsight.
31:45Sir, you know, the fact is, we have about 10 million citizens who live across the Gulf.
31:50We have a number of Indian students in Iran.
31:52We built strong relationships with the United Arab Emirates in particular.
31:58We've built decent relationship with Saudi Arabia, strong relation now with Israel.
32:04And we've had an enduring relationship with Iran, even if we've not agreed with them on every issue.
32:10For example, Iran's views on Kashmir.
32:12But broadly, do we believe it's possible to be neutral at all in this hyper-polarized Trump world with so
32:19many actors being influenced?
32:21It's not a question of being neutral.
32:23You've never been neutral on Middle Eastern issues.
32:25You've been right.
32:27You've been right.
32:28And you've expressed your interest.
32:31And that despite, and because of that, because they knew what you were doing, you have maintained decent relationships from
32:40the 50s with all the major actors in the Middle East, all the regional powers.
32:45Whether it was Egypt or whether it was Saudi Arabia, you had the king of Saudi Arabia coming here in
32:491956.
32:51Whether it was Iran, whether it was Turkey, to a lesser extent, perhaps, whether it was Israel.
32:57You worked with Israel right through.
32:58In 74, you faced an oil boycott from Saudi because of your relations with Israel, long before you had an
33:04embassy.
33:05You were still dealing with them.
33:06So it was possible because they respected the fact that you had your interests and your views.
33:12And you expressed them diplomatically in ways which they understood.
33:18And I think it's possible.
33:19But that doesn't mean you have to be neutral.
33:21Mr. Shiv Shankar Menon, you've given us an overview of where you believe the war could be heading.
33:27But more importantly, you've told us what India's stand should be.
33:31I appreciate you sharing your wisdom with us.
33:34Thank you so much.
33:35Thank you, Rajiv.
33:36Thank you very much.
33:38All the best.
33:41Shiv Shankar Menon, and you can catch that entire interview, of course, on India Today Digital.
33:46When we return, we're going to turn to the story where Donald Trump needs to be held accountable.
33:53The killing of the schoolgirls.
33:56Our OSINT team finds out, was America responsible or not?
34:00Did Donald Trump lie to his country and the world, claiming that the Americans didn't bomb the school,
34:06in which 160 schoolgirls died?
34:10You're watching the news today.
34:11News without the noise, but plenty of knowledge.
34:20Okay, let's turn to the top five developments from that raging war in West Asia at the moment.
34:26With Tehran refusing to surrender or back down,
34:29the United States has warned Iran that today will be the most intense day of strikes.
34:34President Donald Trump threatened to hit Iran 20 times harder
34:37if they blocked oil from passing through the Strait of Hormuz,
34:41boasting of sending Iranian Navy to the bottom of the ocean.
34:46Iran, meanwhile, has ruled out, heading back to the negotiation table with the United States,
34:50saying talks with Washington won't be on their agenda anymore.
34:54Foreign Minister Appas Arachi warning that strikes will continue for all as long as necessary.
35:01Donald Trump says he's not happy with Mujtaba Khamenei being chosen as Iran's new supreme leader,
35:07called it a mistake.
35:08Tehran says no outside power has rights to interfere in Iran's domestic affairs.
35:15The Middle East's largest oil refinery in UAE's Ruas has been shut temporarily after it caught fire following a drone
35:22attack by Iran.
35:23The Abu Dhabi media office says no injuries have been reported so far.
35:28The Israeli military carried out another series of strikes in Beirut's southern suburbs targeting infrastructure linked to Hezbollah.
35:35Close to 500 people have been killed in Israeli attacks on Lebanon in the ongoing war.
35:39America has asked its citizens to evacuate.
35:49Now it's been 10 days since that missile strike struck a school in Iran's Minar area killing 165 schoolgirls.
35:57The deadliest casualties of the war so far.
36:02Since then Trump's heart has bled for the Iranian women's soccer team in Australia.
36:07But the US president continues to dodge responsibility and accountability for the death of these schoolgirls.
36:13Even claiming that it wasn't an American missile.
36:16Well India today's OSINT team today comprehensively demolishes Trump's claims on and his attempts to evade accountability.
36:28Here's the report.
36:31As the US-Israel combined war with Tehran enters day 11.
36:36The use of Tomahawk cruise missiles on an elementary school in Minar killing at least 165 people mostly children have
36:44raised humanitarian questions.
36:47Following the deadly attack on the girls' school on February 28th.
36:51The Trump administration has not taken responsibility of the attack saying the probe is on.
36:56Trump went a step further saying Iran was behind the bombing on school.
37:01Did the United States bomb a girl's elementary school in southern Iran on the first day of the war?
37:07No, in my opinion, based on what I've seen, that was done by Iran.
37:12Is that true, Mr. Hicks said? It was Iran who did that?
37:15We're certainly investigating.
37:17Still investigating.
37:18But the only side that targets civilians is Iran.
37:23But a new video of the attack has emerged showing evidence that a US Tomahawk missile likely hit an Iranian
37:29school.
37:29The chilling video uploaded by Iran's Meher news agency and verified by the New York Times shows a missile striking
37:37a naval base near the Shajera Tayyab school in Minar on February 28th.
37:42The distinct property that we are looking for is this missing piece.
37:47Remember, this is an Iranian missile.
37:48This is a Tomahawk cruise missile.
37:51You see, in the Iranian missile, there is a distinct separate engine mounted at the bottom.
37:57In the Tomahawk cruise missile, there is a very small air inlet hole, but it is not visible from that
38:04distance.
38:07But when President Trump was again asked about the use of Tomahawks by the US on the school, he squarely
38:13blamed Iran and said the country had access to US-weight Tomahawks cruise missiles.
38:17He said the strike could have come from Iran or any other country, arguing that the Tomahawk is widely available.
38:25The Tomahawk missile likely destroyed that Iranian girl's school.
38:30So will the Americans, will the US accept any responsibility?
38:33Well, I haven't seen it.
38:34And I will say that the Tomahawk, which is one of the most powerful weapons around, is used by, you
38:40know, is sold and used by other countries.
38:43You know that.
38:44And whether it's Iran, who also has some Tomahawks.
38:48They wish they had more.
38:50But whether it's Iran or somebody else, the fact that a Tomahawk, a Tomahawk is very generic.
38:55It's sold to other countries.
38:56Now, if you merge this satellite picture with the video, you get this particular pattern.
39:02What we believe is that at least three sets of projectiles, likely a cruise missile, hit all these buildings.
39:10The reason why we are saying a cruise missile is because of the pattern of destruction.
39:16The pattern of damage is very much similar.
39:22And the evidence of an American hand into the deadly attack continues to just pile up.
39:27Now, the clinching evidence is this picture, which was released later last night, again by Iranian media agencies.
39:36Now, if you zoom in this particular picture, these are the remnants of the munitions, the missile, which was recovered
39:43from the school compound.
39:44It reads Globe Motors 2275 Stanley Avenue Dayton, Ohio.
39:52It's a company registered.
39:54We have checked.
39:55You can do a Google search.
39:57You will find its address.
39:58It's a U.S.-based company.
40:00We continue to raise the alarm over the humanitarian impact of escalating violence across parts of the Middle East.
40:06Which is driving rising civilian casualties, damage to civilian infrastructure, and growing displacement of people.
40:14At a time when Trump has been pressurizing the Australian Prime Minister to give asylum to the Iranian women's soccer
40:20team,
40:21his complete refusal to shoulder responsibility for the deaths of 150 Iranian schoolgirls exposes the double standards in the dichotomy
40:29of war.
40:30Maashweta Lala, Bureau Report, India Today.
40:34So, as the death toll mounts, the casualties mount, and the bombings continue, the big question,
40:41is there an end game to the war in West Asia?
40:46Joining me now is a special guest, Trita Parsi.
40:49He's an Iranian-born Swedish writer and political analyst.
40:51He's executive vice president at the Quincy Institute.
40:54Appreciate your joining us, Mr. Parsi.
40:56It's very interesting.
40:57You've tweeted today after the Donald Trump pressur suggesting that there were two key objectives the American president had.
41:04Calm the markets and prepare the ground for ending the war through a unilateral declaration of victory.
41:11But the Secretary of Defense, Mr. Hegsett, seems to suggest that the bombings will only intensify on Iran.
41:17So, do you see this conflict ending soon?
41:21No, I don't think the conflict will be ending soon.
41:24And I think what Trump was trying to do was to essentially calm the markets,
41:29because he's very sensitive to the global markets, particularly oil prices.
41:33It has a profound impact on global inflation and U.S. inflation, which has a direct political consequence in the
41:39U.S.,
41:40while at the same time trying to intensify the war so that he can declare a victory before his own
41:47base turns against this war.
41:49However, even if he declares victory, even if he were to withdraw militarily from the region,
41:54it does not mean that the Iranians are going to end the war.
41:57The Iranians are likely going to continue the war until they believe that they have reached the point
42:03in which the United States and Israel are not likely to restart the war because the cost has been too
42:09high on them,
42:10as well as getting some sort of a sanctions relief that enables Iran not to be in a state of
42:16continuous weakening after the war has ended.
42:20Because if it ends right now, Iran will be in a state of continuous weakening because of the lack of
42:25sanctions relief.
42:26And that continuous weakening will prompt Israel and the United States to attack Iran again,
42:32because it's precisely the perception of Iranian weakness that gave the U.S. and Israel the idea that there was
42:37an opportunity to strike.
42:43So two things come from what you've said.
42:45A, you're saying the war is unlikely to end soon.
42:48B, you seem to suggest that it's unlikely that Iran will see the kind of regime change that Israel, if
42:54not the U.S., wants.
42:55Am I broadly correct?
42:58Yes.
42:59I mean, right now we don't see any signs of that at all.
43:02The theory behind this was that the U.S. would be taking out a lot of the state's repressive capabilities,
43:09IRGC by siege,
43:11and that people would rise up.
43:12We're not seeing any signs of that.
43:15If anything, we're starting to see increasing signs of nationalism and rallying around the flag, particularly after Trump talks about
43:24arming separatist Kurds,
43:26after he's attacking the Iranian nation by saying that all Iranians are horrible people, it is no longer focused on
43:33the regime,
43:34as well as the fact that you have these attacks against desalination plants, oil refineries, power plants,
43:41that are not an attack on the state's repressive capabilities, but is an attack on Iran as a whole.
43:47Trump even said that he thinks that Iran's map may not look the same way after this war.
43:52This is fueling nationalism and the belief that Trump is seeking the dismemberment of Iran.
44:03And we've run a story today about the schools and the manner in which the school bombing has also evoked
44:09a strong sense of anger in Iran.
44:11You believe the longer this war continues, if anything, Iranian nationalism will be spurred even more. Am I correct?
44:19I believe so, because we've already seen that the United States has lost control over the war,
44:24and it is only trying to inflict as much destruction as possible, rather than actually inflicting damage in areas that
44:33are strategic.
44:34Instead, it's just going for all-out suffering.
44:37It thinks that the sound of explosions will cover up the fact that the U.S. no longer has a
44:43strategy.
44:47But what about Iran? Does Iran really have a strategy when Iran targets Gulf states,
44:53continues to pound missiles in many places around Iran?
44:58Do you believe Iran also has a strategy?
45:00If U.S. has gone into this war without a strategy, does Iran have a strategy?
45:05The U.S. did not go in without a strategy.
45:07It had a plan A, and the plan A was that Iran would collapse within four days.
45:11That plan A has crashed down and it doesn't have a replacement.
45:14The Iranians had a strategy from the outset, and they're sticking to it,
45:18which is they are doing everything they can to increase the cost of this war, not just on the U
45:23.S., but on everyone.
45:26These attacks against the GCC states are aimed at striking U.S. bases, U.S. personnel, but also the global
45:34economy.
45:35The strikes against the Strait of Nohormuz is about choking the global economy and making sure that the inflation goes
45:41up
45:42and that the cost simply becomes too high for everyone.
45:44The Iranians are looking for the most accessible pain point.
45:49It is not Israeli casualties.
45:51Israeli casualty tolerance is much too high.
45:54It's not even American casualties.
45:56It is the global economy.
45:58And that strategy that you pointed out is very well thought through, maybe completely immoral.
46:03And it is also, it should be said that many of these states in the GCC had worked very hard
46:08to prevent this war.
46:09They're still getting bombed.
46:10But this is a strategy that the Iranians have chosen because they are clearly in a weaker position.
46:15So they have to go towards the weakest pain point that they can identify.
46:24Does Israel have a clear strategy or is Israel still under Netanyahu held bent on dismantling the Iranian state?
46:33Well, that is the Israeli strategy.
46:35I think the Israelis are the biggest winners so far.
46:38The Israelis are very content.
46:40It doesn't matter to the Israelis if the next supreme leader is named Mushtaba, Hassan or Ali.
46:45That's of no particular importance to them.
46:47What's important to them is that as much as possible of Iran's military and state capability and economic capability is
46:56destroyed.
46:57They want to make sure that Iran is set back 10, 15, perhaps 20 years so that the balance of
47:03power in the region shifts in Israel's direction.
47:05And so that even though Iran will continue to have missile capabilities and will continue to be able to strike
47:11and deter Israel to a certain extent, it will nevertheless be set back so far that the Israelis won't have
47:17to think about doing this again for another 10 to 15 years.
47:20That is absolutely being achieved.
47:22It's America's objectives that are now being achieved.
47:28But then what is the end game and who decides the end game?
47:32You seem to suggest that Donald Trump could unilaterally one day wake up and declare victory.
47:39Do you believe Trump will end this war?
47:41Who ends this war?
47:42What is the end game?
47:46This is the fallacy that Trump has fallen under to believe that he can just unilaterally decide when this war
47:51ends.
47:51I think he would like to end it at some point in which he just declares victory, even if many
47:56of his objectives have not been achieved.
47:59But again, as I said earlier on, the Iranians have a vote in this as well.
48:03And so do the Israelis, even if the Iranians and the Americans were to come to an agreement on some
48:08form of an end to this war that I think would have to contain some sort of a sanctions relief
48:13for the Iranians as well.
48:15They won't accept it otherwise.
48:17That does not mean that the Israelis stop.
48:19The Israelis still have the ability to sabotage any type of an agreement between the U.S. and Iran until
48:25Trump decides that he is willing to tell the Israelis no.
48:29So far, he has not.
48:30He's just gone along with what the Israelis have wanted, and he is in a terrible situation as a result.
48:39But, you know, you've got a Donald Trump, therefore, who, you know, publicly says it's more fun to sink ships.
48:46Here is someone completely, if I maybe use the word, amoral.
48:49Some of his comments, frankly, from an Indian perspective, grotesque in the way there is absolutely no compassion, empathy.
48:56So Trump is not going to change.
48:57Given all that, where do we stand, Mr. Parsi, particularly, let's say, a month from now?
49:03If I'm interviewing you again, do you believe the war will still be raging?
49:08I think there's a high chance and risk that the war will continue for another month.
49:12There is also a likelihood that because of economic pressure and because of pressure from other countries onto the United
49:20States to end this war,
49:22because of the fact that many other countries, India, will pay a higher economic price much sooner than the U
49:28.S. will.
49:28As I understand, some Indian schools are already being closed as a result of fuel shortages, et cetera.
49:34Unless that pressure from other countries who are paying the price for this, the Philippines, Bangladesh and others, starts to
49:41actually channel towards Trump, then this can go on for a month.
49:45But if that pressure starts to mount and other countries are stepping in and pressuring all sides, the Iranians as
49:52well, to end this war, then we will see this war continue for quite some time.
49:58Other countries have a vote in this.
50:00It doesn't seem that many of them have realized or are willing to.
50:09My final question, therefore, to you, Mr. Barsi, what is your biggest takeaway from the last 11 days?
50:16What is it that has perhaps surprised you most in the last 11 days?
50:21And what worries you the most?
50:25I'm not surprised that we are in this situation.
50:27I am surprised that the Iranians escalated vis-a-vis the GCC state so quickly.
50:32But I'm not surprised that we're in this situation.
50:34I wrote before all of this that this is all based on a massive miscalculation sold to the Trump administration
50:40by the Israelis, saying that Iran is so weak it has no choice but to surrender.
50:45That is absolutely not the case, and as we see the result of that right now.
50:49My biggest worry is that this goes on for weeks and months, and that it will not only destroy much
50:55of the Iranian state, but much of the global economy.
50:58And we will see massive refugee flows out of Iran if just 10 percent of the Iranian population flee, similar
51:04to what we saw in Syria.
51:05We're talking about 9 million people, most of them going towards Europe.
51:14Okay, let's leave it there, Trita Parsi.
51:19I appreciate you joining us and doing some plain speaking on where the war stands as we speak.
51:27Thank you very much for joining me.
51:29Thank you so much.
51:29Appreciate it.
51:32A war seemingly without a strategy.
51:36Continuing coverage, of course, with stellar guests from India and across the world.
51:41Okay, let's leave you tonight with a happy feel good image of the day because the country's ambitious Cheetah relocation
51:49program has crossed a significant milestone.
51:52The country has now more than 50 Cheetahs.
51:57The boost came after Jwala, a Namibian Cheetah, and one of the key mothers under the program gave birth to
52:03five cubs at the Kuno National Park.
52:06From extinction to thriving wilderness, India's Cheetah comeback is more than a conservation win.
52:13It's a sprint of life, a testament to resilience, and the roar of nature heard once again.
52:19Much that indeed the government, which was criticized initially, can claim, hey, we didn't get it so wrong after all.
52:28Cheetahs are there in Kuno in large numbers.
52:32That's our image of the day.
52:35Thanks for watching.
52:36You stay well.
52:39Good night.
52:41Sugratri.
52:42Jay Hind.
52:43Namaskar.
52:43High school.
52:45Yeah.
52:49I'm good, thank you guys.
52:49No, no, we're today, I'm so sorry but we're now on Instagram, Philippians Trixie,
52:49well, you are so sorry about how theos pilots are full, one of the…
52:49publicans…
52:50No and no, no.
52:51No good news.
52:52Ganze byена with you.
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