- 7 months ago
Ken McKusick goes deep in the weeds to explain why the Ravens didn't LOSE Tyler Linderbaum, they actually gamed the system to work it in their favor.
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00:00We welcome in Ken McKusick of FilmStudyBaltimore.com.
00:03I do got to say this, though, since everybody, if you're checking out YouTube, we have our,
00:08is this our first official quad box?
00:10I mean, the NFL Red Zone has nothing on us because I'm the youngest guy and I look the oldest.
00:15So I don't know what that means for me.
00:17But anyway, Ken, welcome to the program.
00:19Hey, how you doing, Jeremy?
00:20Good. Let's start it off with the Linderbaum stuff because you have a lot with this.
00:25I'll just throw it your way. Tell everybody what you have on the Linderbaum deal.
00:29Well, amazing deal. Resets the market by 50%.
00:32It's obviously a level where I've been very outspoken about.
00:36Tyler Linderbaum's not a particularly good pass blocker.
00:38He's a below average pass blocker.
00:40Some would say way below average.
00:41But that's the most important thing you do as an offensive lineman.
00:44Run blocking is secondary. It doesn't matter what position you play.
00:47And he's never really been able to reach that new height.
00:50We've seen flashes occasionally, but he hasn't been able to reach that new height as a pass blocker.
00:53All of a sudden, he's the highest paid center in the NFL by 50%.
00:56I think what I took from this was it was very much a master class by DaCosta and the Ravens
01:04in terms of how to pump up the value of a player.
01:07Pump up the value? Sorry.
01:08Yeah.
01:08So they got him.
01:10They gave him a very big support offer, for starters.
01:12And they did it via the sneakiest way possible.
01:16They really acted like they wanted to sign him for this amount.
01:19But they knew it was not going to be enough.
01:20It was not going to be enough for the market at almost $22 million per year.
01:24And then, of course, it goes to the market, and there are still multiple bidders.
01:28And it's a perfect storm of situations where you have retiring centers in Kelly and Dahlman,
01:33and you have a limited supply of players at the kind of the top end of the right-hand end
01:37of the curve,
01:38whatever you want to describe it.
01:39And then those guys get involved in a secondary bidding war where the support price is already
01:45$4 million higher than any center has ever made.
01:47And they drive the price up, including Atlanta, to $27 million.
01:51Just an absurd figure.
01:53The Ravens should get a third-round compensatory pick,
01:55provided he meets certain playing time and performance incentives that will happen in 2026.
02:01But absolutely brilliant job.
02:02So they drove the price up to get a higher pick.
02:05Think of it almost like a shill bid at an auction.
02:07It's really almost like that.
02:10And the Ravens are good about providing a support price for the market to send a player out there.
02:15I think they did it maybe for Patrick Queen.
02:16They did it certainly for other players.
02:18That'll be the lowest price where negotiations begin.
02:22So you're saying while the fans are upset he's leaving,
02:24you're saying they made a smart move because they were pretty sure they couldn't retain him
02:28when other teams started bidding.
02:30So let's get the best pick we can get for this guy.
02:33Let's get a three instead of a four out of it.
02:35And they did.
02:36And it might have been, I mean, it might not have even ended up with a four.
02:39I love that.
02:40Yeah.
02:41See?
02:41No, that's a good take on that, Ed.
02:43that Ken just had about how they maneuvered that.
02:47Turns out they're smarter than I think we're giving them credit for.
02:50Ken goes way deeper than most people do.
02:53And he always brings an analysis like this.
02:57Ken always brings up some good news, though.
02:59I'm extremely excited about Max Crosby.
03:02There's a lot of Ravens.
03:03Some people think they gave up too much.
03:05I look at it this way.
03:07But I just think he brings so much to this team besides his obvious pass rushing skills.
03:12He's also great against the run.
03:15He's something we haven't had.
03:17Now, let me ask you this.
03:18You just said you do.
03:20If you could draft him at 14, wouldn't that be a steal?
03:24Well, that was me that decided to do that.
03:26If I could draft Crosby at 14?
03:28Oh, I thought you mentioned that.
03:29I'm sorry.
03:30No, no.
03:31Oh, I think it's a good deal.
03:32I look at it this way.
03:33If you get somebody like Max Crosby, the 14th pick in the draft, and you have the number
03:37one pick next year, hopefully you're drafting 32nd.
03:39Who cares?
03:39I just think it was a great move for this team.
03:41He's under contract, and he brings a lot to the team.
03:44Look, Max Crosby's a great player.
03:46And there's a whole bunch of things we could talk about that are positive in terms of this.
03:49It was a ton to give up.
03:50An absolute ton to give up.
03:51It's between 55% and 60% of their draft capital for the next two years.
03:56And you've got to really look at the J.J. value as being the best way to impute that
04:02because if you don't, then you're going off the basis where all trades are made.
04:06Even though there are a lot of people who say, hey, flatter valuation systems are appropriate.
04:10Those second and third and fourth round picks are worth more relative to the one.
04:14It's just not the way teams go.
04:15But I think what happened probably was DeCosta looked at the 14th pick.
04:18He wasn't excited about who he could end up getting.
04:21And so he said, I'm going to put a different value on this.
04:26I can't trade down.
04:27Maybe I could trade up.
04:28And they probably tried.
04:29They probably tried to go up to number five or number four because that's approximately
04:32the pick they could have gotten in exchange for 14 and next year's number one.
04:37With four or five, they could have gotten one of the top three passers.
04:39They probably could not have gotten Bain.
04:41But Reese, Bailey, whatever.
04:43They could have gotten one of the top three guys.
04:45And they decided we'd still rather have Crosby at $112.9 million for the next four years
04:51instead of a number one, sorry, one of the top three pass rush guys, probably either the
04:56second or third best.
04:57And they might also have been rebuffed on that.
04:59Somebody, whoever, the Giants, who had number five, I think, might have just said no.
05:03Yeah.
05:04And I look at it, look, to me, draft picks are just like prospects in baseball.
05:08They're not proven yet.
05:10I mean, and I go back to Javion Clowney.
05:12He was one of one, never fulfilled that promise.
05:15It was good, but he wasn't what we thought he'd be.
05:18So I'd rather have somebody who's proven.
05:20All right.
05:20We can't talk about every failed draft pick without talking about every other draft pick
05:24that worked out.
05:24And the Ravens are one of the three best teams along with the Packers and the Steelers
05:27in terms of getting value out of their draft picks.
05:30I think anytime they surrender picks, it's, you know, as a fan, we should be concerned about
05:34that.
05:34What is the danger in parting with a pick, and I'm talking about 2027 now, that you don't
05:40know, it might be the 10th pick, or it might be the 30th pick.
05:43Huge danger.
05:43Because this, I mean, this team has legitimate problems.
05:47And what it ends up being is an enormous bet on Crosby's health.
05:51Now, let's have, we need to talk about the positive side of Max Crosby, too, because I
05:54don't want to leave it there.
05:55But it's an enormous bet on Crosby's health.
05:58Yeah.
05:58And again, we're going to get more into this.
06:00Steve, I'll have you ask the next question we get, because we're coming, we got Ken for
06:03three segments, and there's just so much to talk about with all the players that left.
06:07And I think there's even more to dive into with Max Crosby.
06:10But let's do this.
06:11We'll step out.
06:12Steve, last first question when we come back.
06:14Ken McKusick right here on, right here on the Big Bad Morning Show from filmstudybaltimore.com.
06:18Music of filmstudybaltimore.com.
06:21Steve, go ahead.
06:22Fire one at Ken over here.
06:23Ken's got a great stat here, and I'll let him explain the percentage of the cap Tyler
06:29Linderbaum becomes, as opposed to the standard great center.
06:34So, okay, he'll earn $27 million a year over the next three years in AAV.
06:40The cap this year is $301 million, so he'll make approximately, AAV is approximately 9% of
06:45the current cap.
06:46The cap will go up slightly in the next couple of years, but over the next three years, he
06:49plays the entire contract.
06:50In fact, he'll make between 8% and 9% of Atlanta's cap over that three-year period.
06:54Now, the last 14 centers for the Super Bowl winners, and this is all players who played
07:01center, not just the starting center, aggregated to 1.92% of cap.
07:07And he'll earn four and a half times that at 9%.
07:10Wow.
07:10So the starters would probably be a little higher, but nowhere near nine.
07:13Yeah.
07:14That's how crazy an overpay this was.
07:16This is absurd overpay.
07:19Looking at some of the other players that they lost in free agency, which ones hurt the
07:24most?
07:24I'll let Ed talk about Jordan Stout in just a second, but does he fall in line there?
07:29What are your thoughts on the players they lost?
07:31Which one hurts the most?
07:33Well, I don't like losing.
07:35Isaiah likely got effectively the same contract he was offered during camp, which is about
07:42$42 million for three years.
07:43And he took it, he got $40 million for three years, plus he can earn up to $47.5 with
07:49incentives.
07:50So that's unfortunate.
07:51I wish he'd signed in camp, and then we probably would not have signed Andrews.
07:54Charlie Kolar hurts.
07:56Three years at 24 seems like a very reasonable price tag on him.
07:59He's very difficult to replace with a single player.
08:02He's a combination blocker, has some receiving value that could have been unlocked this year
08:06without likely present.
08:07And the special teams value he has is terrific.
08:10Draymond, I'm not surprised at all about.
08:12I'm happy to see him get a nice big bag.
08:15Did you hear what he said on Twitter?
08:17Yes.
08:17If it was real, Ed.
08:21God, this is going to live with me for the rest of the time.
08:23So on Twitter, they had a projection with how much money he was going to make.
08:29You saw this too?
08:30And he's like, well, hell, that sounds great, but I don't know if that's true.
08:33So 20 million, he goes, I love the projection, but, you know, good thing.
08:37And then it ended up being three for 39.
08:39And I think that's perfectly reasonable.
08:40I had hoped kind of they could get him back for about three for 27, three for 28.
08:44So that wasn't happening.
08:46And honestly, with the Crosby deal, there isn't a lot of room.
08:48I think the Ravens had a vet and a draftee to replace Draymond Jones.
08:53And, you know, they're going to, I hope they will not maximize Crosby's snaps
08:57because I don't think it's the way to get the most out of a player's 29 to 32 years old.
09:01I think the best way over the next four years is going to be to maintain a controlled number of
09:07snaps for him
09:07with 750 per year instead of 900 or 1,000 that he was playing with the Raiders.
09:12So that hurts.
09:13I, you know, the non-tendering of Keaton Mitchell, we haven't talked about, that hurts.
09:17What do you guys think about that?
09:18I was surprised.
09:19I thought it made sense to bring him back.
09:21Maybe they think they can, do they think they can bring him back at less
09:23or just want to go in a different direction?
09:25I think if he's still on the table to return to the Ravens, it's not a 0% chance here,
09:30but it was mildly surprising they wouldn't take the $3.5 million bet
09:33or about what it was to make him the low-round tender,
09:35which meant they would have had the right to match an offer sheet.
09:39But if they're basically saying, we're not going to match an offer sheet anyway,
09:42if it's over $3.5 million, then you've got to just let him go ahead and become a free agent.
09:46And then they hopefully can get him back at $2.5 million.
09:48But I don't think it says good things about how confident they are about his health
09:52and the value of the tender.
09:54Yeah, I mean, losing two tight ends, I think, was enormous and a bit of a surprise.
09:59But I was surprised about Jordan Stout.
10:01I was surprised about three players going to the Giants on a different note.
10:04Like, you know, for all the swirling rumors, oh, he lost it to the locker room,
10:09the team players don't like him.
10:10Oh, yeah, three of them followed him to New York immediately, so I don't know about that.
10:14And, I mean, not monetary value, but what is the loss,
10:19the value of loss with someone like Stout going, leaving,
10:23I think what a better punt is in the NFL.
10:26He's an experienced holder, which, Matty, you have an unproven kicker.
10:30How bad is that loss?
10:32I think that's pretty significant.
10:34I'm not going to overstate it in terms of the holder,
10:36because the Ravens have had a great record with Randy Brown and Sam Cooke coming back
10:39to train new holders to do the job well.
10:43I mean, Jordan Stout, he had some holding experience,
10:46but it's what they did to train him that made him so special in that regard.
10:50And if you look back, his first three years were during the Tucker decline phase,
10:54and so it wasn't immediately apparent whether that was Tucker declining
10:58or Stout as a holder causing problems and whatnot,
11:01but every point, Tucker came out, Randy Brown came out, said,
11:05no, Stout's the best holder in the league.
11:07It's really all on Tucker, and Tucker was not trying to dodge the bullet for it all.
11:13And then Tyler Loop has a great rookie year, and Stout's the guy.
11:18I think they'll miss him, and they'll miss his punting, of course, too,
11:21but hopefully they'll miss his holding even more.
11:25Ken Gravers gave us some great notes here on the moves of the last 24, 48 hours here,
11:30and one of your notes is when I've seen local reporters note
11:33that the Ravens' 2022 draft class is a stud draft class
11:39and seen by the results of the last day or two.
11:41Yeah, one of the top four or five draft classes, certainly, in Ravens' history.
11:45They've earned now already $298.5 million in total contract extensions,
11:50and that includes Jones and Hamilton, who re-signed with the team.
11:54It does not include Daniel Falalele yet,
11:55and Daniel Falalele is going to get paid some money
11:57because he's not that different from John Simpson, who we still need to talk about,
12:00but he's not that different as a player from those two,
12:03so he's going to still earn a significant amount of that.
12:07That's a year's cap just among the players from 2022
12:11and their total value that's already been committed to them over the next few years.
12:15It's a bit ridiculous.
12:16We've got a couple callers here that have been waiting.
12:17I want to get them in, get your thoughts on this, Ken,
12:19and I do want to get into exactly what you're talking about,
12:21the other addition that people keep forgetting about with Simpson.
12:24Let's go to Ken in Owings Mills.
12:25Ken, you're on the fan.
12:27Hey, guys. How are you doing today?
12:28Good.
12:29I think Ken is pointing out what people are upset.
12:33People struggle to hold opposing cues in their minds.
12:37Like, this has been the great draft class.
12:40Oh, we're losing you.
12:41Yeah.
12:42Oh, can you hear me?
12:43Yeah, we got you now.
12:44Sorry about that.
12:44But it's been one of the greatest draft classes,
12:47but it's also been the main reason why Harbaugh is gone
12:50because we had these amazing drafts,
12:53and we still didn't get to the Super Bowl.
12:55So, it sounds like people struggle to hold those two opposing things in their mind.
13:01But I think one of the biggest ones is with, like, with Lindebaum
13:05to where he drastically got overpaid.
13:08And I know you guys were talking earlier,
13:10I just wish that players could just hold on to something
13:12because he's going to be out there, you know,
13:15this is going to be something pretty great that could have happened
13:17if he would have just taken the deal earlier and just hung around.
13:21Well, Ken, I appreciate the phone call.
13:23I'll say this.
13:23One of the things that he's kind of alluding to is, you know,
13:27with the players that were out there and left,
13:29that draft class that Lindebaum was in,
13:31they were talking about how great of a draft class that was for the Ravens
13:33that I think seven starters came out of that class?
13:37You know, I hadn't looked at it recently,
13:38but I know that the big three who were available all were lost yesterday.
13:43And, you know, and Lindebaum, Likely, and Kolar.
13:48And, you know, they did re-sign Hamilton and Jones already, thank goodness,
13:52out of that group.
13:53And then I'm trying to think of who else is in the group that I'm forgetting.
13:57I've got to go back and look at it now,
13:59but I just remember reading this yesterday.
14:00I think it was on the Inquirer, Ed.
14:04One more caller here.
14:05Mark's in Arkansas.
14:06He's got an interesting question,
14:07something we talked about right when you walked in.
14:09Mark, go ahead and throw it at Ken.
14:11Yep.
14:11I was just saying, good morning, first of all, fellas.
14:13How are you?
14:14Good morning.
14:14Hey, Mark.
14:14I was just curious as the Lamar Jackson situation and his con,
14:20why has he not been extended yet?
14:22And whether that's impacting on the ability for them to sign any new free agents.
14:28I thought he was supposed to be done by now.
14:31Why hasn't he been done?
14:34Appreciate the call.
14:35Thanks, Mark.
14:36We do, I think there's a general feeling that they may have already come to terms.
14:42And, you know, it's the Lamar Jackson restructure could have been done at any time
14:47on a simple basis by the team to gain a few dollars,
14:49but that's not what the Ravens need.
14:51The Ravens need the commitment to Lamar Jackson playing here for the next six years,
14:54that he wants to be here and whatnot.
14:56I hope that's coming tomorrow.
14:59I mean, that's the rumor is that it's going to get announced tomorrow.
15:01But again, we don't know what's true, what's not.
15:04I just can't fathom them making a trade for Max Crosby without knowing that Lamar has been signed.
15:10It just doesn't make any sense.