00:11Tiene más de 15 años de experiencia en análisis macroeconómico global y política monetaria y
00:17fiscal. Ha liderado investigaciones económicas y asesora a consejos empresariales y organismos
00:23públicos. Cuenta con estudios en la Universidad de Boston y la UC Lubain. Gregory Daco, economista
00:30en jefe de Ernst & Young Parthenon en Milenio Negocios.
00:38Bienvenidos a Milenio Negocios, este programa semanal. El día de hoy con Gregory Daco, él
00:43es economista jefe de EY Parthenon Estrategia y Transacciones para Ernst & Young LLP. Vamos
00:52a hablar de perspectivas, así que ponga usted atención. Gregory, thank you so much for being
00:56here with me. And we are still trying to understand what is going on in this year, 2026, and geopolitics
01:06is sort of getting in the way for a lot of business decisions. So I would try to begin
01:13or I want to begin with these first steps that CEOs should be taking into consideration to plan their
01:222026-2028 strategy.
01:26Yeah, certainly. We are in an unusually volatile economic environment and I think it's important
01:33for business leaders across the world to really realize that we are in what I've described
01:39as a new economic paradigm. A paradigm where supply shocks are going to be increasingly influencing
01:46economic activity and where there are going to be a confluence of these shocks all occurring
01:52at the same time. Whether it's trade policy and the higher cost of doing trade or AI and the
01:59technological revolution that is accompanying it or demographics and reduction in immigration
02:05around the world. All of these factors are going to be influencing the way businesses conduct
02:11economic activity and will be a key lever to focus on for business leaders around the world.
02:18The year, and you just mentioned it, started with a lot of conversation around tariffs
02:23and the USMCA. And to be honest, this volatility and uncertainty that you also mentioned has made
02:31people stop their investments or at least try to refocus and try to figure out what is going on.
02:38And if we think a little bit longer term, what should businesses be looking into their own
02:45production companies, the analysis that they have to make inside their own production channels and
02:50clients, et cetera, to be able to make better decisions along the way?
02:56I think there are two important elements to any business strategy when you're looking at the medium
03:02run in the context of trade developments. The first is resilience. So it's essentially the ability
03:08to be flexible, adaptable to an environment that is constantly changing. I think that's one of the
03:14key characteristics of trade policy today is that it's rapidly evolving. So having the ability to
03:19build scenarios, to do tabletop exercises, and to really understand how different developments will
03:25affect your economic activity and be able to pivot is key. But the other important element is also
03:31building that robustness. And that robustness is essentially the ability to withstand shocks. Because
03:37it's not just about tomorrow, it's about the next few years, and how you are understanding your suppliers,
03:44your final customers, your brand positioning, your capital strategy to have a clean balance sheet,
03:51and the ability to withstand shocks, and a holistic AI strategy to navigate this environment. So
03:57resilience and robustness are key in this environment.
04:02If we, and I know you do this for a living, but you talk constantly with trade associations, which I
04:08think is
04:08really interesting in this same context that we're talking about, what are their biggest concerns? And also the
04:15potential opportunities, because there's always an opportunity of making more business.
04:21Yeah, I think there are certainly a number of opportunities, because what's happening is really a redesign of trade policy
04:28around the world.
04:29Economies around the world are not moving away from a globalized business model, but they are conscious of the increased
04:38fragmentation. And so that means that there are opportunities to develop new ties,
04:44stronger ties with new trading partners or existing trading partners. There are also opportunities to think about more efficient ways
04:52of doing trade of doing business in an environment that is more fragmented. So it's not just a
04:59about the higher cost of doing trade, which will be with us for quite some time, but it's really how
05:05businesses can adapt to an environment where this cost of trade will be persistently higher, and where there are opportunities
05:13to actually invest, develop that resilience that I was just highlighting, and develop that robustness in order to be as
05:21efficient as possible in this new economic environment.
05:26I want to zoom out a little bit. And the Mexican economy is fairly dependent on what is going on
05:31in the US. And if you think of the latter, so the US, what is front and center? And what
05:38should we in Mexico be paying attention to?
05:41Well, I think the US administration is key on driving growth in strategic industries, strategic sectors. And it is thinking
05:50about trade policy in that context. For instance, one of the big elements that it's coming due is the review
05:58and potential renegotiation of the US MCA, that agreement between the US, Mexico and Canada. And there will be a
06:07lot of pressure by the US administration looking at the US
06:10looking at both Mexico and Canada, who address certain issues that pertain to labor content that pertain to value added
06:19that pertain to the energy sector and critical minerals, or even a broad framework, whereby all three parties have alignment
06:28in terms of their trade policy that is going to be central for the US administration, as it looks to
06:35renegotiate some of the trade agreements that it has with Canada and Mexico, as well as
06:40with other trading partners around the world.
06:43You've said that artificial intelligence, and I'm going to switch the subject again, because I have you for a few
06:48minutes, so I want to take advantage of this conversation. But you've said that artificial intelligence could lift labor productivity
06:54in the world in about 1.5% to 3%. Now what sectors could benefit the most? And what geographic
07:03regions are you seeing that are actually working with this and taking advantage of this?
07:09Yeah, I mean, in general, AI has very strong prospects for growth. We're currently in the early stages of the
07:15technological revolution, we are in what I call the capital investment phase, where we're seeing a lot of businesses developing
07:23the infrastructure necessary to develop the potential productivity gains from AI, but the productivity gains are going to come due
07:29over the course of the next few years. In terms of sectors that are leading the way, we're seeing a
07:36lot of gains coming out of the
07:38the information space, the information space, of course, the tech space, but also the professional and business services. And gradually,
07:46we're seeing a migration of adoption across a wider share of sectors and a wider share of firms. In terms
07:54of the regions that are leading the way, there's no surprise there.
07:57The US is in the US is in the leading position when it comes to the development of the technology
08:02and the capabilities. But there are also some other big players like China that are following very closely behind. And
08:10when it comes to Mexico, it's also trying to benefit as much as possible from the close relationship it has
08:16with the US in the AI space, as well as it has across other sectors that have been traditional partners
08:24when it comes to its relationship with the US.
08:27Do you see an opportunity for Mexico to take more advantage with this if everything goes well with the USMCA?
08:34And how could we do it?
08:35Yeah, I think generally speaking, there is going to be a desire to align on critical areas, strategic areas of
08:43growth by the US administration. So I was talking earlier about the desire to align on labor rules, on environmental
08:52rules, on critical minerals, on trade policy.
08:55There is an opportunity here to look towards the future and think about potential opportunities for collaboration between the US
09:03and Mexico when it comes to AI, because we know AI is going to be a key source of growth
09:08over the course of the next few years.
09:10And so I think there is a tremendous opportunity here for growth when it comes to collaboration between the two
09:16trading partners.
09:17Let's talk about trust and confidence, because you do this, you review what CEOs think and when they're what they're
09:26doing and their strategies and where they're investing.
09:28And what is the pulse that you have in Mexico? What are CEOs thinking? Where are they going to invest?
09:36How is Mexico perceived in general in terms of a geographical investment opportunity?
09:42I think generally speaking, most actors in the US economy and in the Mexican economy are a little bit hesitant
09:50when it comes to their sentiment for seeing relatively depressed levels of confidence.
09:57That being said, when you look at what business leaders are doing, not what they're saying, then you see a
10:04lot more optimism in their actions because business leaders realize that there is a transformation.
10:10In the economic paradigm that's underway and they want to drive growth. So they're looking to collaborate more closely and
10:18seek opportunities to grow in this environment that is highly uncertain.
10:24So there is really that look towards the medium run in how can I drive growth in this environment that
10:31will be uncertain for the foreseeable future and in which there are shifting dynamics for which I can take advantage
10:38of.
10:39That's really what I'm hearing from a lot of clients across sectors.
10:42And I want to do a last question. It's a little bit more personal. I know that in your bio,
10:47you describe yourself as an inclusive leader.
10:50And I think that leadership in general is going to be really relevant this year. What should leaders be thinking
10:57about?
10:57How should they be thinking about people, organizations, culture and being inclusive with everyone so that the business can grow?
11:07I think it's very important to think about that dimension. When we look at economic activity today, it does appear
11:15like increasingly we're falling into a trap where there is a winners takes all type of environment.
11:20We're essentially a few firms scale at a very large extent. There is vertical integration and the benefits of growth
11:28of productivity growth and of economic growth are not split equally across different societies.
11:33I think that's a potential risk for economies around the world and for businesses, because if we have a greater
11:39degree of polarization within economies and between economies that creates a more fragile foundation to growth and any type of
11:48swing in financial markets, for instance, can become a catalyst for slower growth.
11:53So I think from a leadership perspective, it's very important to not forget the importance of having a broad foundation
12:00to growth because that provides more structural stability in terms of economic momentum.
12:06And I think we can end with that stability, broad stability and the foundations that keep businesses going. Again, Gregory
12:15Daco, thank you so much for accompanying me today.
12:19And gracias también a la audiencia por habernos acompañado. Nos vemos la siguiente semana en Milenio Negocios.
12:26Gracias.
12:26En Milenio Negocios.
12:26And gracias.
12:40Gracias.
12:45UnifINGEMY MUCH.
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