00:00The other aspect that we met about today was about the economic impact that this will have on us.
00:08As you can imagine, oil, the prices of oil have already taken an adjustment upwards.
00:19But it went all the way up to 82 pesos, I'm sorry, 82 dollars initial shock.
00:28Pero they closed out at 76.50.
00:35So nag-a-adjust na pababa.
00:37So that is expected.
00:41First of all, let me assure everyone that we have sufficient supply of oil.
00:50We have a stockpile that are approximately 50 to 60 days in terms of gasoline, in terms of fuel oil,
01:00and in terms of kerosene.
01:02So that is, let me immediately allay the fears of everyone, that our supply of oil-derived products, oil-derived
01:18products, even fertilizer is something that we had to look at.
01:21And we have sufficient supply.
01:26Let me look at the precise numbers.
01:31Our stockpiles are diesel, we have 50 and a half days.
01:38Fuel oil is 51 and a half days.
01:40Gasoline is 51 and a half days.
01:42Kerosene, we have 67 and a half days.
01:47Jet fuel, A1, jet fuel is 58 days.
01:52LPG is 29 days.
01:54So we are okay for that period of time.
01:58Ngayon, to further provide the supplies of these oil products,
02:06yung ating mga pinagkukuhanan ng ating mga iba't-ibang oil products ay meron din silang stockpile.
02:16So hindi pa yun, hindi nalabas, hindi pa nila in-export.
02:20So that is another potential supply for us.
02:23However, we must be very clear that if you are a country that is holding a stockpile of oil products,
02:31you will export as little of it as possible so that you keep your own stockpile high
02:39while this crisis is going on, while we do not know what is going to happen.
02:45However, beyond that, of course, there will be a great effect on the oil prices that we are facing here.
02:58We have already seen the reaction on oil products,
03:03on crudo, sa gasolina, sa LPG, at naramdaman na kagad.
03:12And that's, again, expected.
03:14So we have put together some scenarios.
03:26We cannot know.
03:29We have heard many estimates kung gano'ng katagal ito.
03:32Ang naririnig natin coming out of the United States is four to five weeks.
03:37Hopefully, it will be less.
03:41And hopefully, before the four to five weeks,
03:44the level of intensity of the fighting will come down.
03:48In other words, the commerce will proceed in a more or less normal way, number one.
03:56And secondly, that the oil production will start to normalize.
04:04And hopefully, of course, these are our hopes sooner rather than later that this will happen.
04:10However, in the scenario that Dubai Crude comes between $80 and $90 per barrel,
04:25this lasts for two months, we have identified and assuming that Iran exports continue,
04:38although I don't think that that is a fair assumption anymore
04:40because that's going to be the first place that the attacks will occur.
04:48So the response of the government, some of the interventions that we are thinking about
04:57is to have targeted fuel subsidies to the affected area, to the affected sectors,
05:04such as the transport sector, the agri-sector.
05:07The agri-sector comes into play because fertilizer is a petroleum derivative
05:12that comes from the oil and for fisher folk.
05:16As soon as oil prices breach $80 per barrel,
05:23we will use several of the funds.
05:30We will use the funds.
05:31For example, we will use the Pantawid Pasada program
05:35and the subsidy for farmers and fisher folk.
05:39We are also trying to look at the possibility
05:47of easing the transport cost burden to workers
05:54for the traveling public,
05:56providing maybe no fare bus rides along major routes
05:59and maybe to hold fares down on our public transport facilities.
06:09And of course, we are now going to look for whatever subsidies we will need to provide
06:16so that we will not be able to see that the working public is going to happen.
06:24There is also a proposal that we will examine further.
06:30I am going to talk to the leaders in both the House and in the Senate
06:35to maybe, this is not yet a sure thing,
06:41but this is something that we are discussing
06:43and it could be helpful,
06:45is to give me, the President, the authority
06:48to reduce excise tax on petroleum products
06:52should Dubai crude exceed $80 per barrel.
06:59And that, wala pa tayo don.
07:01But if, in case that happens,
07:04then maybe this is something that we will have to,
07:07this is one tool that we will have to have.
07:10So, I will discuss it with the leadership of Congress
07:13and to see it is going to be an emergency measure,
07:17it is not going to be a permanent measure,
07:19it will be something that we will dispose of
07:22as soon as the crisis is over.
07:25And there has been a coordination
07:27between the Department of Energy and the oil companies
07:31that whatever price increases,
07:33they are going to institute
07:35that they be done in a staggered manner.
07:50And that will hopefully become a little bit less of a problem
08:06to our, to our working,
08:10to the working public.
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