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Short filmTranscript
00:00The US just declared war on Iran and almost every time something like this happens, gold and silver
00:05do one thing. And no, it's not that they predictably pump because it's a safe haven trade. Actually,
00:09this time the data shows that maybe Wall Street and insiders have already front run this entire
00:13war. So we need to look at the data. My name's Nick. I've been a professional investor and
00:17unprofessional trader for 24 years. Today, we need to talk about the exact historical pattern
00:21silver follows during Middle Eastern conflicts and why everything is not as it seems. We need
00:26to look at the data that suggests that banks are setting up a massive trap for retail, allegedly,
00:30and we need to talk about what this means for the future of gold and silver. Let's figure this out
00:35together. But before we start, I'm not a financial advisor. This is not an inducement to buy or sell
00:39any asset, especially not leverage trash. I hate leverage. And most importantly, don't take
00:43financial advice from some random dude on YouTube. For once in the history of financial markets,
00:48the unfolding geopolitical nightmare that we're facing is accidentally on the side of retail
00:53silver holders. Gold and silver are safe haven trades, which means that during a war, they always
00:58pump. Kind of. It's not all as cut and dry as it looks. See, Wall Street usually sells you these
01:06myths
01:06because they love getting retail to hold their bags. And I'm going to give you an example of this.
01:11Oil. Have you heard the lie that oil pumps whenever there's a conflict in the Middle East?
01:16It's a lie because usually it actually does the opposite. Look, I'm a data guy. I love data.
01:21And I have data on every major conflict over the last 20 years, which I can use to see how
01:26it impacts
01:26the markets. This chart, it looks at the average movement of oil prices from two weeks before a war
01:33starts to three months after. And I filtered out every war that isn't in the Middle East. And I'm
01:38only looking at major conflicts. So this essentially shows the standard pattern that oil prices follow
01:43before and after a war. Right. Typically, we pump heading into a war. Retail gets trapped up here.
01:52Then Wall Street dumps their bags and you're and you end up holding the bag. Allegedly.
01:57Lovely, isn't it? I mean, these Wall Street guys, they're just awesome guys. Now, does this mean that
02:02oil is going to dump for sure and that you should be shorting it tomorrow? No. Look, every event is
02:09different. It just suggests that the media's narrative, which they're pushing right now, by the
02:13way, they're saying oil prices are going to jump up is usually bullshit. Allegedly. No, statistically,
02:19because, you know, the charts in front of you. Now, I also analyze these patterns for silver and gold
02:24and here they are for silver and gold. So these actually do kind of what you expect from a safe
02:31haven asset. Right. On average, from the start of the war, which is this golden line here to three
02:37months later, they trend up, which is nice. Right. So that's it. This is the video. Buy silver with 100
02:42X leverage and cash out in three months. Don't don't don't don't use leverage. And also, it's not
02:49as simple as that. We need to dig into the data because right now what silver is doing is it's
02:54something that it's never done before before a major conflict. It pumped just before the conflict
02:59and normally it pumps after. So this could be very, very dangerous and we need to figure out why.
03:05And we're going to start by looking at COMEX. So Friday was the first notice day for COMEX. That
03:12is the critical deadline where paper silver holders have to decide whether they are going to take
03:16delivery of their silver or roll their contract, their paper silver onto the next delivery month.
03:22Now, this was important because COMEX was almost out of silver in its folds. And if enough people
03:28decided to take delivery of their silver, COMEX would run out. And many people expect that when
03:33COMEX runs out of silver, that silver prices are going to pump. For COMEX, this was a touch and go
03:38situation. They had 86 million ounces of silver left in their vaults and it was looking like they
03:43might actually run out. Lucky for them, only 52 million ounces were standing for delivery. Standing
03:49just means people claimed for delivery, right? But this is still not good overall. This means that
03:55they now have only 33 million ounces left in their vaults, which is the lowest since 2010. And the way
04:01it's going, they are going to run out soon. If not in March, maybe in May. So when silver pumped
04:07on
04:07Friday, a lot of us thought it was because silver was running out and it very well could be that
04:12simple. Don't get me wrong. But what if there's more to this story? Looking at the data on my site,
04:20every severe Middle Eastern conflict results in a silver pump within one to three days of the
04:26conflict starting, not before. Generally, something bad happens and then people pile into silver and
04:32gold because they're safe havens. It's just a normal safe haven play. But Friday, we saw a massive
04:376% pump in silver. And then yesterday, the bombs start dropping. So was this pump because COMEX vaults
04:43are emptier than your average banker's moral compass? Or, or did insiders start buying heavily
04:50just before the bombs drop because they knew retail would pile in as always when the market opens
04:55and they could dump on retail? Well, this is where things get very interesting because this week we
05:01had some other major news about silver. And a lot of people missed this one. Turns out that Jane
05:06Street, lovely name by the way, Jane Street. It's so beautiful. It sounds so nice, but really they
05:11should be called Payne Street because they bring pain to retail traders. So what is Jane Street?
05:16The nice way of putting it is that Jane Street is a premier global proprietary quantitative trading
05:21firm and liquidity provider known for using advanced technology and maths and research to trade a wide
05:27range of assets. That's the nice way of putting it. The truth is Jane Street are one of the most
05:32manipulative trading firms operating today, allegedly. They are alleged to have manipulated Indian markets
05:39and made hundreds of millions of dollars doing so at the expense of retail. Indian regulators
05:44actually froze nearly $600 million worth of Payne Street's assets and has put them under
05:49investigation. Also, they are now being accused of manipulating the crypto market, being behind the
05:552021 crypto crash that killed Luna and led to the collapse of FTX. Why do I mention FTX? Because
06:01it's really important. FTX was run by Scam Wankman Fraud. So that's what me and my friends call him.
06:07I think he's commonly referred to as Sam Bankman Freed. He actually used to work for Jane Street.
06:15He used to work for Jane Street. Then he left Jane Street and started FTX. And then Jane Street
06:20started the domino effect that collapsed FTX. It's crazy. It's just this nice little hive of criminals
06:26that Jane Street is incubating, allegedly. But why am I talking about Jane Street anyway? Why is this
06:32important? Well, because this week we found out that they've been buying up ridiculous amounts of
06:37silver. They are now the biggest holder of SLV, the iShares Silver Trust ETF. Now, before you say
06:43who cares, paper silver is not physical silver. I'm sorry to tell you that silver ETFs like SLV are
06:48usually backed by real silver. So while this is a paper product, in essence, it's backed by real stuff,
06:54which means one of the biggest market manipulators, which exists today, allegedly now has a big bag of
07:01silver, which brings us back to the manipulation. On Friday, silver broke this very, very important
07:08level, $92, a level that COMEX allegedly didn't want it to break. In fact, a cynical observer would
07:16suggest that COMEX did everything it could to stop silver getting above $92. Not me. I wouldn't say that
07:22because I think COMEX are just super honest people. I love COMEX. But I'll give you an example of how
07:27honest
07:27and awesome they are. So on Wednesday last week, silver was approaching this critical level,
07:33the $92 level. We were all really excited because it was about to break it. And if it did,
07:38it felt like that it could probably move to $100. Then boom, all of a sudden, silver trading paused
07:43on COMEX. Why? Well, because COMEX servers went down. Turns out that the server overheated due to a
07:50faulty cooler. Barry in IT, he spilled his coffee on the server rack by mistake. Silly, Barry.
07:55Now, the curious part of all this was that in November, silver was also approaching a critical
08:00resistance level. And right at that moment, Barry also spilled his coffee on the server rack.
08:05Crazy how that happens. What are the odds? But COMEX, they're good honest people. They would never do
08:10that on purpose. Oh man. And I forgot, I forgot one part. They, they have backup servers in New York,
08:18which they can just switch on at a moment's notice for market continuity, which is the whole point of
08:23having backups. But I guess Barry forgot the password to the backup server. It's so ridiculous.
08:28How are these people not in jail? So let's recap quickly. COMEX vaults are at critical lows. So silver
08:35is running out. Alleged master manipulator and fraudster incubator, Payne Street, Jane Street,
08:42now owns a lot of silver. We have no idea what they're going to do with that silver, but usually
08:47their involvement in anything is not great for retail. Allegedly. COMEX servers are catching fire
08:53whenever silver pumps too hard. And now, now we have the most serious Middle Eastern war since 2003.
09:00Some people would, would argue that maybe it's not the most serious, but it is a very serious one. Okay.
09:04And instead of, of pumping after the war, silver decided to pump before the war. Why? How? Before you
09:11say, because everyone knew this war was coming and we all did. That's not it because we knew a lot
09:16of
09:16these attacks were coming, but silver never really did a 6% pump the day before. So the suspect list
09:21right now is pretty narrow. COMEX, it's obviously not them. They shut down their servers whenever
09:26price gets too high. So they didn't pump price. They don't want it to go up. Jane Street, it could
09:31be
09:31them, but we can't really know. Retail? Us? It totally is plausible that it could be us. We could be
09:38seeing that vaults are emptying and we are just buying. I mean, you know, a lot of us are buying
09:42silver,
09:43right? And then it pumps. Okay. And look, it's very important that we narrow down the suspect list
09:50right now, because this matters a lot. Depending on who is responsible for pumping silver on Friday,
09:56silver could take different paths on Monday. If it's Payne Street manipulating, it might crash hard
10:01on Monday. If it's retail, us, who were just buying because the vaults are emptying, then maybe silver
10:07might keep pumping on Monday. So we need to know. But these aren't the only suspects. There's another
10:13suspect. And I need to be careful what I say here because I don't think saying allegedly is going to
10:19cover me from these people. It's the US government, or at least US government insiders. So I must say
10:27that the following is for entertainment purposes only. I'm definitely not accusing anyone in the United
10:32States government of any wrongdoing. I'm just role-playing here. My lawyer is going to kill me.
10:39Okay. So if you're at all familiar with the crypto sector, and if you aren't, congratulations,
10:45that's a good thing. But if you are familiar with the crypto sector, what I like to call the trailer
10:49trash of finance, people hate it when I say that. But look, if you are, you might be aware that
10:56certain
10:56people, political figures, they spent the last year bleeding crypto dry, maybe taking advantage of
11:03retail, like, you know, a mythical succubus, allegedly. And the astute cynical observer
11:09started noticing a super weird pattern. Not me. I didn't notice the pattern because it's definitely
11:15not real. Someone else did. I'm just talking about it. A pattern more reliable than when, you know,
11:20fire start in comic server rooms. The pattern goes like this. Step one, an important political
11:26figure says a lot of positive stuff to pump the market. And usually they're not even subtle.
11:31They just say, hey, it's time to buy. They actually say that. Step two, retail buy. They follow and they
11:39buy. They pile in. Step three, the important political figure, you know, bombs some country
11:45or imposes tariffs or threatens to impose tariffs or does something, whatever. And the markets crash.
11:51Why am I all of a sudden in different clothes? I was about to head to the gym and then
11:54I saw
11:55this tweet and I realized I need to add this to the video. Because when I explain stuff like this,
11:59people say, this is a conspiracy theory, Nick. You're crazy. Maybe. But then you see stuff like
12:04this. 71 minutes before bombs dropped in Iran, a mystery person signed up to an untraceable crypto
12:09betting app and bet that the strike was about to happen and made over $500,000. Very lucky,
12:14right? I'm sure that wasn't a government insider who knew it was about to happen. Anyway, onto the next
12:20steps. Step four, a profit, not retail that, you know, whoever's doing this, orchestrating it, profits.
12:26But wait, there's more, right? Step five, call off the bombs or, you know, whatever tariff threats or,
12:34you know, backtrack on something. Step six, markets pump again. But because you bought the bottom,
12:41you profit again. So you profit on the way down, you profit on the way up. Look, is this pattern
12:48real
12:49or is it an imagined? I don't know. And if it's real, is Trump doing it? I shouldn't have said
12:55the
12:55name. Fuck it, it's too late. Is he doing it intentionally or is he just doing his thing,
13:00just doing his job? And then insiders who, you know, know what's coming are profiting from all
13:05of it. I don't know. I can't say. But I do know that politicians benefit from insider information
13:12all the time, allegedly. That's why many traders actually make a living simply copying Nancy Pelosi's
13:18craze. Either she's the greatest investor who's ever lived or she has insider information,
13:24allegedly. And they do tend to focus on whatever retail is most hyped on at the time. They sucked
13:30the life out of crypto. Maybe now they're targeting silver because that's where retail interest is.
13:36So where does all this leave us, right? My suspect list comes down to free entities.
13:43Payne Street, Jane Street, government insiders or retail us. All right, now it's time to go back
13:49to my website and look at what silver does on average during Middle Eastern conflicts.
13:54On average, this is what happens. Silver is fairly flat leading into the conflict.
13:59In the days following the conflict, it spikes a lot. And I know this doesn't look like a lot on
14:04this
14:04chart right now, but this is a fair bit. It's a pretty big spike, right? And then over the next
14:10one to two weeks, it goes back to pretty much zero. It goes back to where it started, right?
14:15So it pumps immediately after the conflict and then it gives back all its gains a week or two later.
14:21Then after that, it tends to start trending up for the next one to three months, right? Now,
14:27this is where I say past performance is not indicative of future results. And
14:30these are simply averages. Markets have surprises all the time. So please don't be an idiot and go
14:36leverage trade based on this chart. I do not recommend short-term trading or leverage trading.
14:40Look, the point I'm trying to make is this is just the general pattern that is followed for both silver
14:44and gold. Actually, gold does the same pattern. But if this time silver already pumped before the
14:50war started, maybe we need to move this orange line over to here because maybe now, because it's
14:56already pumped, instead of pumping further, it's just going to dump down on Monday, maybe.
15:00But this is why I always say that short-term trading is kind of stupid. It gets you into
15:06trouble. If you went long on Wednesday when clumsy Barry killed the entire server over at Comex for,
15:12you know, a few hours, you would have been wrecked. Maybe Monday we follow the same pattern that silver
15:17usually follows when a major conflict starts and we just keep pumping. I hope so. But maybe insiders
15:22front ran this whole war, got in, and now they're going to dump on retail on Monday. So what's the
15:27solution? Okay. I need to spy something else into this video because my editor said that I screwed
15:31this part up. So in my completely unprofessional gym clothes, which, you know, perfectly described
15:35my mood at the moment, what should you take away from today's video? Look, the best traders and
15:42investors know when to act and when to sit on their hands. So let's review where we are at right
15:48now.
15:48First, this chart shows the typical pattern in silver when a war breaks out. So it pumps over the
15:53first few days, then it gives back all of its gains. Then it generally ends up performing well
15:58over time. This is not financial advice. This is just average performances. You know,
16:02things can stray from the average. But this time, silver has already pumped, which makes what happens
16:08next a little bit less certain. On top of that, we have master manipulator Jane Street joining the
16:13party. We have Comex freezing prices whenever they get too high. Cartels are choking off supply.
16:19A war that could spin out of control in the coming weeks or could already be over. Who knows?
16:24All of this can be summed up in one word, uncertainty. We are no match for government insiders who know
16:31every move before it happens or manipulators who can crash or freeze price at will. We are retail.
16:37We only really have power when we stand together. And during massive uncertainty, our best play is to
16:43just not play their game. By the way, if you want access to any of the data I used in
16:47this video,
16:48plus much more data to help you make informed decisions, sign up to the waiting list for
16:52blackwatch.finance. Link below. More details coming soon. Bye.
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