00:00We can bring in now Rob McHair, the former British ambassador to Iran,
00:05somebody who knows a lot about this region, of course.
00:07Ambassador McHair, thank you so much for being with us.
00:09We really appreciate it today.
00:11First, your reactions to just how serious an escalation this is.
00:17It's a very serious escalation, isn't it?
00:19I mean, I think no one can be in any doubt about the scale of the Israeli and U.S.
00:23military operation.
00:25And I think that what we're looking at now is, as you were saying just now,
00:29a prolonged campaign, but the scale of the operation means that you enter into the realm of unpredictability.
00:37And however well planned the military operations are, it is hard to see where this is going to evolve to.
00:44Indeed, and of course there's so much we don't know at this stage.
00:48But if indeed the Iranian leadership has been taken out, if they have been removed,
00:53or are in the coming days as the military action by the U.S. and Israel unfolds,
00:58what could happen next?
01:00Is there any kind of credible opposition that would be able to form a new government,
01:05as the U.S. seems to want from this whole operation?
01:11Well, I think the first thing to say is that Iran has, of course, been preparing for this.
01:15This is not an unexpected attack.
01:17So we know that they have been delegating military command, for example, to lower levels,
01:22so that it's not all dependent on the top figures who could be taken out in these strikes,
01:27and also delegating political overall responsibility to other potential leaders so that, again,
01:33if there are decapitation attacks on the regime, it has the resilience to continue to operate
01:38and continue to take decisions and to issue commands.
01:41So they will have been preparing for this.
01:43Whether that's fully effective or not, we wait to see.
01:47But as to your question about whether there is an opposition that is in place
01:51and could step in to be an alternative leadership,
01:54of course there isn't that opposition at the moment.
01:57What there could be is some sort of a split within the regime itself,
02:03a faction or individuals coming forward to say,
02:06actually, we do need a significant change of direction
02:09and to try to take control and to move the regime into a different direction.
02:13That's a possibility.
02:15But that's probably the most optimistic scenario we could see.
02:20Does this action by the US and Israel have any kind of backing in international law?
02:25Or does it break the UN Charter by essentially breaching the sovereignty of another country with force?
02:30And is there anything that the international community can, at this stage, do to intervene?
02:34The French President calling for the UN Security Council to hold an emergency session.
02:41Well, many countries, of course, have looked at these issues around Iran and its nuclear program
02:45as something that is better resolved in a political diplomatic solution
02:49because they tend to be longer lasting and more stable than solutions that are reached by military force.
02:56On the question of legality, of course, international law is a complex beast
02:59because the definition of self-defense requires judgments about the actual threat posed by Iran,
03:07about the intent of this action, and it's never a black-and-white case to decide what's legal and what
03:14isn't legal.
03:15But I think that it is a stretch to say that there was an imminent attack,
03:19either on Israel or the United States, that puts this squarely into the category of self-defense.
03:26We're just hearing from the Iranian Foreign Minister speaking now,
03:30saying that Iran is attacking military bases in the region as an act of self-defense.
03:36Is there any sense of just how much, Mr. Ambassador, the capacity the Iranians do have to really escalate this
03:43in the region?
03:44How concerned are you that this is going to not be contained at all?
03:50Well, I don't think that the states in the region are going to be rushing to join into this war,
03:55even if their targets in their territories are struck, as they are being struck now.
04:01But again, there was a lot of unpredictability and unintended consequences that go with this.
04:07If oil supplies from the region exiting the Persian Gulf are severely curtailed by the conflict,
04:15that brings in fundamental interest for some of the states in the region.
04:19So I think that the US and Israel will be saying to all of the regional states,
04:25this is our fight, you know, we don't want you to get involved,
04:29and they'll be trying to protect them from these strikes.
04:31But no one really knows how much Iran's ballistic missile capability is able to continue firing at Israel,
04:41at other countries in the region, and how much damage they can do,
04:44and therefore what the risks of wider broadening of the conflict are.
04:50And looking at recent enforced government changes, such as Libya 15 years ago, in Iraq in 2003,
04:57government changes have not been achieved by airstrikes alone.
05:01Can we expect this air war, do you think, to be followed up by some sort of ground operation?
05:07I'd be very surprised if the United States wants to get involved in a ground war in Iran.
05:13It's a huge country, and there is, you know, obviously a very...
05:18The US has never wanted to get involved in that sort of conflict,
05:21and particularly under a president who doesn't want military entanglements.
05:25They clearly want an air campaign that's going to achieve its objectives and then declare victory and move on.
05:32But those objectives are hard to achieve.
05:35As you say, it's hard to achieve a regime change.
05:38And, of course, if you look at the two sides,
05:40the US and Israel have set out some very, very maximalist objectives with what they're doing,
05:46whereas for Iran, really, survival is victory.
05:50I mean, if they come out of this, however weakened they are,
05:53if they come out still in control, they will say that they have won.
05:57Donald Trump saying that it's a once-in-a-generation opportunity for the Iranian people to topple their government.
06:03And given the crackdown on protests last month,
06:05I mean, how widely welcomed do you think the people of Iran will be seeing this operation?
06:11Will they be essentially hoping that the Americans and the Israelis succeed in toppling the government?
06:17Or, given the high likelihood of civilian casualties,
06:21is there a certain amount of opposition to this domestically in Iran?
06:25Look, I mean, the Iranian regime is deeply resented and hated by a very large majority of the people.
06:32There's no question about that.
06:33It's lost legitimacy with almost everyone.
06:37But there are still a core of ideological regime supporters
06:41and people who are linked to the regime and whose livelihoods and jobs and housing and so on
06:46are dependent on the regime.
06:47So there is a core of loyalty to the regime.
06:50And there is a significant force they can deploy on the streets.
06:54And an air war, a bombing campaign,
06:58can't really change the balance of power on the streets very much.
07:00So it's hard to see how protests and demonstrations can win on the streets
07:08against a totally determined and absolutely ruthless regime like the current Iranian regime.
07:14As I say, what it might do is affect the dynamics inside the regime.
07:18And if you were to see elements of the Revolutionary Guard or the Basij defecting from the regime,
07:25then obviously that would be a very, very significant sign.
07:28But I don't think anyone's seen any sign of that yet.
07:31OK, really grateful for your insights today.
07:34Thank you very much indeed to Rob McHair, former UK ambassador to Iran.
07:38Thanks so much.
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