00:00And let's get some analysis now with Yossi Mecklberg, Associate Fellow of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at
00:07Chatham House, a think tank based here in London.
00:09Yossi, great to have you with us today. Thank you very much indeed and hello to you.
00:12So what do we know so far about the nature of these strikes on Iran and the immediate objectives?
00:21You'd have to know. Thank you for having me.
00:23I think this is a major, major escalation in the region and it's not only confined to Israel, Iran, even
00:33the United States.
00:34Very quickly it spread to other countries in the Gulf.
00:39But we were not that surprised by this because we realized in the last few weeks that while the sides
00:46were negotiating,
00:47they were more preparing for the failure of negotiations than their success.
00:54They looked more for, you know, military option there.
00:59This is not a surprise.
01:00What is clear right now when it comes to the objective is not only about Iranian nuclear,
01:05it's not only about Iranian ballistic missiles or support of proxies in the region.
01:11It's very specifically right now about calling the Iranian people to topple the regime.
01:18It's about regime change.
01:21Now, the basis of the attack, Israel says it was preemptive.
01:26And Donald Trump saying that the threat to the United States from Iran was imminent.
01:31Were there signs of that? Is there any evidence of that?
01:35So obviously they don't give data as what they were preempting.
01:38If they were preempting that eventually Iran will hit nuclear military capability.
01:44So that's what I mean preempting.
01:46If there are any other things.
01:48But, you know, there are short on details here.
01:51So you really question what specifically they're preempting.
01:55I think what they're preempting is probably the complete failure of the negotiation.
02:01But we saw through the negotiation.
02:03I think for me the most revealing was when the chief negotiator on the U.S. side,
02:10Steven Witko, said that President Trump doesn't understand why the Iranians are not capitulating,
02:17which so kind of the state of mind.
02:20They were expected complete capitulation of the Iranian side, which would never happen.
02:25So in this sense, they didn't leave much door for any compromise in the negotiation,
02:31which made a military operation almost inevitable.
02:35And the Omani foreign minister saying just very recently that a deal was within reach
02:41and that substantial progress had been made at those talks and asking for more time for the negotiations.
02:46I mean, were the Americans ever acting in good faith during those talks?
02:50Or was this always inevitable, this strategy to strike?
02:53And is there now any kind of off-ramp for diplomacy or has that door effectively closed now?
02:59I think between what I mentioned, the expectation of capitulation on the Iranian side
03:05and at the same time the military build-up in the Gulf and beyond,
03:11which left very little room for the United States not to join in a military attack,
03:18I think the chances of the negotiation to succeed were minimal.
03:23Whether the Iranian negotiated in good faith is a question as well.
03:28But I don't think they're given enough chance for negotiation to succeed.
03:34At least a few more days to see what areas of this agreement still exist.
03:39And then they create a system, even when agreed, of verification to ensure everyone abides by this.
03:46But it seems to me that from the beginning, this negotiation was doomed to fail.
03:52Well, for now, thank you, sir, very much indeed for your insights.
03:55We're very grateful.
03:55Yossi Meckleberg, Associate Fellow of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House.
04:00Many thanks.
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