00:00With us, the Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said this Wednesday she spoke with the U.S. President Donald Trump this
00:05week after he called to discuss the situation in Mexico.
00:08There's unrest in the wake of the police killing of the drug cartel linchpin known as El Mencho.
00:13The violence is feeding concern over safety for both supporters and players in the Soccer World Cup.
00:20That's the FIFA World Cup. It's scheduled to take place in summer across Canada, the U.S. and Mexico,
00:26where 13 games are to be staged in the capital, Mexico City, and in Guadalajara.
00:32Emerald Maxwell has this.
00:36This is Guadalajara Stadium, one of three Mexican venues chosen to host Football World Cup matches in a few months'
00:44time.
00:45But the recent retaliatory rampage by cartel members in the area has cast a shadow of doubt over its suitability
00:52as a host city.
00:54It's uncertainty shared by locals.
00:57I think our host city status should be looked at as it puts people at risk, both those who live
01:02here and those who come from abroad.
01:07It's a shame because people are going to see us as a bunch of troublemakers.
01:12Officials, including the local governor, and the Mexican president, Claudia Sheinbaum, have sought to allay those concerns,
01:19saying the situation was gradually returning to normal.
01:23The president of FIFA said he was reassured.
01:28So, for my part, and on behalf of FIFA, we have complete confidence in President Sheinbaum in Mexico.
01:34We are in regular contact with the presidency and the authorities, and we are following the situation in every possible
01:40way.
01:43Jalisco in western Mexico was already facing scrutiny.
01:47The state, with Guadalajara as its capital, is the central hub for the Jalisco New Generation cartel,
01:54whose leader, El Mencho, the military killed on Sunday.
01:58At least 74 people died during the operation to capture him at a ranch near Guadalajara.
02:04And residents and tourists alike were forced to take cover
02:07as cartel gunmen blocked roads and tortured businesses in 20 Mexican states.
02:12Now the concern is that the power vacuum left by taking out the gang leader
02:16could pave the way for internal conflict or territorial grabs from rival cartels.
02:24Any football event raises a question about security,
02:28but in the wake of what has happened and what we've heard about in Antony's report,
02:32these questions are multiplied very greatly.
02:36Let's bring in Nathan Jones, Professor of Security Studies at Sam Houston State University in Texas.
02:40Nathan, thanks for being with us.
02:42Can anyone's safety be guaranteed in Mexico right now, particularly in Guadalajara?
02:49Could you, sorry, could you repeat that?
02:51Can anybody's safety, Nathan, be guaranteed in Mexico right now, especially in Guadalajara?
02:57Well, I think the Mexican government is definitely going to engage in a saturation strategy,
03:02particularly in the run-up, especially to the exhibition matches as they come,
03:07possibly sooner than even this summer in Guadalajara.
03:10They may also consider changing venues, but I think most likely the scenario is that the Mexican
03:15government is going to devote significant security resources into Guadalajara and the
03:20surrounding areas, anywhere where there are potential matches there, to try to get things
03:26to calm down.
03:26Also, it may be in the interest of Mexican drug cartels to calm the situation in the sense that
03:34they may want time to essentially regroup as they deal with a succession struggle.
03:39Of course, it's unpredictable as to whether or not there will be significant fragmentation
03:45within the cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generación, who was led by El Mencho, who was killed on Sunday.
03:51What you're describing is very much a social problem within Mexico rather than an actual
03:58football problem.
03:59Football events, though, often bring their own special kind of issue, namely hooliganism.
04:05So this, from a football perspective, is a very different kind of situation.
04:10You know, Mexico has its soccer standards, and its police actually have a lot of experience
04:20with this kind of thing.
04:23In fact, I think that they will be particularly good at handling that level of issue.
04:29Their bigger concern is going to be, you know, possible narco infighting and things like
04:35that.
04:36They're going to be more concerned with that.
04:37And I think also the fans in the stands are going to have a different view.
04:42You're not going to have necessarily the entrenched kind of hooliganism that you might be used
04:46to seeing in Europe for these kind of further away matches.
04:50And also, you're going to be looking at law enforcement that are going to be pretty well
04:55armed.
04:56So I imagine that some of that is going to be immediately deterred.
04:59In terms of what happens from FIFA's perspective, clearly FIFA wants this to pass off without any
05:06problems at all.
05:07There are 13 matches to be staged in Mexico.
05:10Do you think, with your thinking head on now, with your experience, these matches will go
05:15ahead?
05:16Surely, at some point, you've got to look at what's happening in Guadalajara and think
05:19it's not worth the risk?
05:22Well, it's possible that they will be considering changes of venue.
05:26That is one possibility.
05:27But I don't see them removing all matches from Mexico.
05:29For example, I could see possibly pivoting matches to Mexico City or something like that.
05:36But I think more likely what's going to happen is the Mexican government is going to make a
05:39very strong show of security.
05:42And anywhere where the Mexican government can deploy military and National Guard forces in
05:46mass, you see that they can certainly out-challenge any drug cartel.
05:52The issue is, once they have to move those troops to another area, what happens after that?
05:56That's where you see the violence coming back.
06:00One hopes that football can be a festival, that something like the World Cup can be something
06:06that brings people together, that creates an atmosphere of, I'll be all idealistic, love
06:11and peace, and just basically glorifying the sport.
06:15The reality, though, is that it could be very different, couldn't it?
06:17Some people could see to exploit this situation for their own gain.
06:22Well, that could be the case.
06:24On the other hand, Mexican cartels are known for, for example, not wanting to engender a
06:32strong state response and try to maximize profits.
06:36It's fundamental to remember that these are profit-seeking organizations.
06:41They are not in the category of terrorist organizations.
06:45So they operate differently and with a different logic.
06:48Final question, sir.
06:50Mexican people love football.
06:52Let's get this one out there now and say it.
06:55Mexican people adore football.
06:57They've staged the World Cup twice already, 1970, 1986.
07:02This, perhaps the jewel in the crown.
07:04Do you think that maybe that could play on things and make this be a safe event?
07:09Do you think maybe that love of football might override everything?
07:13I think the Mexican government is going to dictate that they're going to put maximum security resources
07:20and deter any major violence.
07:23They may be making their own calculations about changes in venues and things along those lines.
07:28But I fully expect that the Mexican government is going to put in significant resources
07:33as a matter of national pride and maintaining this worldwide event.
07:39Nathan Jones, Associate Professor of Security Studies at Sam Houston State University in Huntsville, Texas.
07:43Thank you, sir, very much indeed.
07:45If you go to see a game, I hope you enjoy it.
07:47Thanks for your insight.
07:48We really appreciate it.
07:49Thank you very much indeed.
07:50All the best.
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