00:03This is Apropos. One of the United States' most wanted fugitives. He was considered to be Mexico's most powerful cartel
00:10leader and the last of the drug lords, acting in the brutal mould of the now imprisoned El Chapo.
00:16Gang members have responded with a wave of violence to the killing by the Mexican army of El Mencho on
00:21Sunday. At least 73 people died in the attempt to capture the cartel leader and during the unrest that followed.
00:29Cami Knight has the latest.
00:32The morning after the killing of Mexico's most wanted cartel boss in a military operation, calm prevails, but people in
00:40the capital are on high alert.
00:43Unfortunately, it's not the first time we're experiencing this, but this time it does seem a bit more worrying because
00:48there's no successor to these cartels.
00:51And, well, we hope that our president does something for us, protects us, because honestly, fear is palpable on the
00:57streets.
01:00Nemesio Oseguira, better known as El Mencho, died in a government raid along with six other gang members.
01:06The operation triggered a violent response across Jalisco State, which spread to other parts of the country.
01:12Cartel members blocking roads, setting fire to vehicles and killing more than two dozen Mexican National Guard troops.
01:19President Claudia Scheinbaum now says peace and security are being upheld in Mexico and that all roadblocks have been cleared.
01:27The people of Mexico should feel very proud of our armed forces in the security cabinet we have.
01:33Meanwhile, the defense secretary praised U.S. intelligence support for the operation
01:38and said El Mencho's location was found through a trusted associate of a romantic partner of the drug lord.
01:45This romantic partner met up with El Mencho and on the 21st, she left the property.
01:51And information was obtained that El Mencho remained at this location.
01:56The White House has also congratulated the Mexican military for the operation.
02:00Scheinbaum has been under mounting pressure to intensify her offensive against cartels
02:04blamed for producing and smuggling fentanyl across the U.S. border.
02:10Well, for more, we're joined by Valentin Pareda, an assistant professor at the School of Criminology
02:15at the University of Montreal, specializing in organized crime in Mexico specifically.
02:22Thanks for being with us on the program, Valentin.
02:26So we had a $15 billion bounty on his head.
02:29Mexico's most wanted cartel leader killed over the weekend.
02:34Who exactly was El Mencho?
02:36And why has there been such a violent reaction to his death?
02:42So who was El Mencho?
02:44He was one of the most important organized crime group leaders in the Americas.
02:51Oftentimes, when we talk about the Mexican cartels, we refer to the more powerful, the most sophisticated
02:58of organized crime groups that operate in Mexico.
03:00And oftentimes we tend to think about the Sinaloa cartel because it is one of the better known
03:06groups and it has a longer history than the Jalisco cartel.
03:10It also has had as its leaders some people who are better known to the media because their
03:16stories have been more mediatized, like El Chapo.
03:19But El Mencho is on par with El Chapo or Mayo Zambada, one of the most notorious, prominent
03:28and dangerous leaders of the Mexican cartels.
03:32And what kind of longer term effect is his death likely to have on the security landscape
03:38in Mexico?
03:41Well, criminologists have studied the impact of beheading organized crime groups and the
03:48effects it has on violence.
03:50And the results show that killing or capturing the leaders of organized crime groups, such
03:57as the Mexican cartels, actually doesn't do much for increasing security and in fact does
04:04the opposite.
04:04So in the midterm and the long term, killing the heads of organized crime groups actually
04:11increases levels of violence.
04:13And it is not really hard to see why, right?
04:16So when you kill the leader of an organized crime group, you create power vacuums.
04:21So the group splinters into factions that are often rival factions and they start fighting
04:27each other.
04:28Also, rival groups see this as an opportunity to move in against the group that has been weakened
04:34by the capture or killing of the leader.
04:37And then that also creates violence.
04:39And then oftentimes, these leaders, even though they are very dangerous, they are very violent,
04:45they also create some sense of stability.
04:47And they do allow the groups that they lead to partake in organized crime ventures that
04:54are more sophisticated, such as, for instance, transnational drug trafficking.
04:59When these leaders are removed and their contacts disappear oftentimes with them, what remains
05:06actually regresses into more, less sophisticated and more violent practices, such as kidnappings,
05:13extortions, and etc.
05:15So what kind of strategies then are the most successful in the longer term as the government
05:20fights these organized crime groups?
05:23And how successful has the president been in doing that since she came to power?
05:30Well, that's a very complex question.
05:33In order to dismantle organized crime groups, one of the best approaches is to actually implement
05:39a more comprehensive strategy that also aims at reducing the incentives for these groups
05:46to exist in the first place, right?
05:48So, for instance, one way of reducing the power of the Mexican cartels would be, on the
05:54first hand, to reduce demand for illicit drugs, which is something that would require a combined
06:00effort from the U.S., Mexico, and other countries in the Americas and even Europe.
06:06And in the case of Mexico, one of the key elements that gives the cartels their power is their
06:13access, almost untapped access, to American-made weapons.
06:18So, Mexican cartels know that the U.S. is one of the world's largest producers of firearms,
06:25and that many states in the U.S. are actually quite open and quite lax with the regulations
06:33with regards to the purchase of firearms.
06:36So, Mexican cartels use their money to acquire firearms in the U.S. and then to use them to
06:43fight each other and also to fight against the Mexican government.
06:47So, removing the power from the cartels would also entail removing that capacity to purchase
06:52firearms so easily.
06:54And you mentioned the U.S.
06:56How much of an influence did Washington play here?
06:59We're being told that American forces weren't involved, but that intelligence was provided
07:04to Mexico by the United States.
07:09So, it's important to take into consideration the current context in which President Donald
07:14Trump has, for the past months, been threatening with military intervention, U.S. military intervention
07:21in Mexico, if the Mexican government doesn't acquiesce to some of the U.S.'s demands regarding,
07:28for instance, the fight against undocumented migrants, the fight against drug trafficking,
07:32and also other issues related, for instance, to international trade.
07:37So, Donald Trump has been using this card, threatening military intervention, and that
07:43has put, indeed, a lot of pressure on Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and her administration
07:48to crack down on organized crime groups in Mexico.
07:52And she has actually tried to do as much as possible to kind of try to navigate this delicate
07:59situation with the U.S. administration and to show that the Mexican government is actually
08:03delivering on its promises to fight against organized crime.
08:07So, Sheinbaum has a record of extraditions lately.
08:11She has extradited a record number of Mexican prisoners into the U.S. in order for them to be
08:17prosecuted in U.S. courts.
08:19A few weeks ago, she also delivered Ryan Wedding, one of the FBI's top wanted fugitives.
08:28And now she's showing that she is also going after the leaders of the most powerful organized
08:34crime groups.
08:36Yeah, and some are suggesting that the killing of this cartel leader could give the Mexican
08:39government an advantage in its dealings with the Trump administration.
08:43Would you share that for you?
08:46I mean, not necessarily, because the U.S. administration is so unpredictable.
08:52I mean, who knows what's going to happen?
08:55Maybe the U.S. administration will use this opportunity to say, look at the chaos in Mexico
09:00right now.
09:00Like, it just goes to show that the country is unmanageable and that the only solution is
09:06to actually intervene directly in order to crack down on the cartels.
09:11So, if we talk strictly about the relationship between law enforcement institutions in the
09:19U.S. and Mexico, yes, we could say that this will be a good show of solidarity and of cooperation
09:28between Mexican and U.S. law enforcement organizations.
09:31However, if we talk about the political relationship, then the killing of Almencho doesn't necessarily
09:39predict anything.
09:40And in terms of how people are going to be feeling in Mexico, we heard earlier from our
09:46correspondent there, the situation is under control.
09:49The government has managed to defuse some of these tensions, but people are still very
09:54afraid about what might happen next.
09:59I mean, I think it's important to consider that Mexico is a pretty big country, right?
10:06So, for instance, at the beginning of the segment, you showed some images of Mexico City.
10:11I'm actually from Mexico City.
10:13And I can tell that, you know, like, for instance, my family who's there right now, they don't
10:18necessarily feel threatened because this killing, this operation took place hundreds of kilometers
10:25away from the capital, right?
10:27So, in the capital, no one is actually seeing any kinds of, like, violence or fires or blockades
10:34or anything like that.
10:35And actually, the capital has always been kind of like this bubble where you rarely see this
10:40kind of incidents.
10:41However, people in the cities where this cartel, the Jalisco cartel, is powerful, they are actually
10:49living in a pretty, they're going through pretty difficult moments.
10:53They're not able to go out, they're sheltering in place.
10:56People that I know who live in Guadalajara, for instance, they tell me, you know, like,
11:01we can't even go out because the grocery store next door has just been, like, burned by some
11:06criminals.
11:07And then two blocks down from here, there's a roadblock and, like, who knows who's handling
11:12it.
11:12So, people there are just actually sheltering in place and they are actually quite afraid
11:17right now.
11:18Valentine, thanks so much for joining us with all of that analysis and that information about
11:22how people you know are responding in Mexico.
11:25That is Valentin Pareda, an assistant professor at the School of Criminology at the University
11:29of Montreal.
11:30Thanks so much for your time.
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