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Markets thought they had clarity when talks around an 18% tariff seemed settled. But fresh uncertainty has crept in. With the rate now at 15%, are investors truly relieved, or still cautious? A market expert weighs in.
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00:16good afternoon you're watching the business today show the market closing action i'm sakshi
00:21and here we are going to be getting you all the closing action on the lal street first up let's
00:26take a look at what's hot in the corporate and the financial world markets trade higher after the
00:34u.s supreme court struck down import levies imposed by president donald trump even as he raised a
00:40temporary tariff to 15 the sensex has managed to climb by 500 points nearing 83 300 mark
00:46while the nifty has gained about 150 points to trade around 25 700 led by autos psu banks and
00:54fmcg stocks idfc first bank shares fall up to 16 percent with market capitalization now down by
01:0314 438 crore rupees following disclosure of a 590 crore rupees fraud at its chandigarh branch
01:11separately au small finance bank also is down by eight percent after dm panelment for government
01:17businesses in haryana id stocks remain under pressure as ai disruption fears intensify the
01:27nifty it index slips by one and a half percent jeffrey is also downgrade six major stocks
01:32emphasis tcs hcl tech emphasis lti mind tree and hexaware also cutting price targets by up to 33
01:40percent for these stocks warning ai could reshape the sector's business model
01:48hindustan aeronautic shares slide up to four percent after reports suggest that indian air
01:53force are grounded part of its stages fleet following a technical issue hl has clarified
01:59there was no crash describing it as a minor ground level technical incident
02:07bullion rallies on tariff jitters tracking global gains mcx gold climbs 3 200 rupees to 1.6 lakh rupees
02:15per 10 grams silver up 15 000 rupees to 2.68 lakh a kilo fm nirmala sitaraman also says india
02:23relies on imported gold and prices are being closely watched but not at alarming levels
02:35straight away looking at the big breaking news that's just coming in the first rbi reaction on
02:40idfc first bank is in viewers the reserve bank of india governor has spoken on the 590 crore rupees
02:47fraud that has been discovered at idfc first bank reserve bank of india has said no systemic
02:52issue in idfc first bank yet rbi has also said it is watching all the developments very closely
02:59the fraud has been discovered at idfc first bank's chandikar branch even though the management of idfc
03:05first bank has been constantly saying that this is limited to that particular branch they've also
03:11indicated that all the investors depositors retail participants as well as the corporate
03:17you know accounts are not very are completely safe from this fraud this was only limited to a certain
03:24account account as well we also have the rbi governor saying the first uh reaction on idfc first bank
03:32let's listen in to what you have to say we do not as a policy we do not comment on
03:38any individual
03:39uh bank or regulated entity uh we are watching the development there is no systemic uh kind of an issue
03:49uh over here not just that we also have the finance minister talking about the india u.s trade deal
03:59and a stalemate on that front finance minister has also talked about the economic impact uh the or you
04:05know she's also mentioned that it is too early to assess that impact at this point in time finance
04:09minister has also said that commerce ministry is reviewing the situation very closely the trade
04:14delegation is going to be taking a call on the u.s visit also let's listen into what finance minister
04:19had to
04:19say on the indian economy i think it's a bit too soon for me to comment but on the trade
04:27particularly
04:29aside from the indian economy in general the commerce ministry is reviewing the situation the
04:35delegation will have to take a call on when they're going to go for further negotiations
04:43so it's a bit too early for me to comment
04:49the finance minister has also addressed some concerns around the foreign direct investment
04:54flows into india she's also cited the economic survey and said that uh india's macro fundamentals
05:01continue to remain strong with a stable government a clear taxation and a law-abiding economic framework
05:06however she's definitely noted that global fund flows have been influenced more by geopolitical
05:12tensions than by india's specific factors let's listen into what she had to say when it comes to the
05:17slowing down of the fdi flows into india the economic survey has also very clearly pointed out and
05:25raised this very important question which comes from a curious mind as i would say all the fundamentals
05:33are fine the indicators are very clearly indicating that next couple of years we will be going at that
05:41kind of a level stable government taxation policy everyone says that there's been absolute certainty so you
05:48would expect the funds to flow towards such economies like india on the top to india but it doesn't come
05:59it doesn't flow in that sense let me go across to surbi now our economy editor for business today as
06:07she's going to be sharing with us uh what clearly is uh the
06:11assessment of the fdi inflows to india uh what we're given to understand surbi is that
06:16last consecutive four months have seen a net negative inflow when it comes to the fdi flows
06:21to india uh are these concerns getting more grave uh hello sakshi so yes uh net fdi uh inflows have
06:30been
06:30a concern and they've been negative as per rbi data for about four months it was an issue last year
06:36as
06:36well but uh what policy makers and analysts also tell us is that we need to look at the gross
06:41fdi uh
06:42inflows this is what sanjay malhotra rbi governor said again today and he pointed out that it's been rising
06:48last year it rose by 14 to 15 percent on a gross basis and he pointed out that it's the
06:54repatriations
06:55you know outflows of fdi's which is going out which has led to a net uh negative in terms of
07:02fdi's
07:02so uh but even as the finance minister said that the fundamentals of the economy remain strong so uh
07:08it would be a matter of time when uh you know fdi is on a net basis also starts coming
07:14back
07:15absolutely stay back while we also heard uh you talk to finance minister especially when it comes to
07:21the rising gold and silver prices and finance minister has also spoken to business today
07:27television and indicated that the surge in gold and silver prices is largely due to india being
07:32heavily import depended when it comes to gold and prices are being closely monitored although she's
07:37also indicated it's not at alarming levels let's listen in to what finance minister had to say
07:47in this country the dependence on precious metals is very much from outside only in the sense we get
07:56every bit of every ounce of gold which comes into the country is an important crowd and we don't have
08:04our own source of exploring and extracting gold there are steps being taken but yet not sufficient to
08:13meet our demand gold has always been a favorite favored investment for households
08:25whether as an asset class or for juventry we are watching it but i'm not sure it has reached
08:32such alarming proportions given the tendency or natural things as it is in india for investing in gold buying
08:43gold and therefore i think it is not gone in that sense beyond a certain limit but of course rbi
08:53will
08:53also be monitoring it other than that other than typically what's happening in the indian market it's also
09:01important and i'm sure you from the media would have noticed that most countries today particularly
09:07their central banks are buying gold and silver and story
09:18absolutely and let's quickly look at how the markets are trading we're just about 12 minutes away from the
09:24markets close today so we'll briefly pay attention and discuss all of these factors with our guest joining in
09:30shortly uh 25 715 you're 144 points high in trade so slowly after uh being in a choppy range pound
09:39trade
09:39through the session we are seeing some pickup happen continues to be uh the gainers are you know the psu
09:46banking index that is continuing to be the top mover over a percent higher financial services are higher
09:52you're looking at autos fmcg as some of the other sectors that are moving up in tandem looking at even
09:58private banks are up and about even the small cap stocks are up in trade but what's dragging it
10:04stocks continue to be under pressure the mid-cap stocks real under pressure real estate and metals
10:09are also losing some bit of shine at this point in time but let's welcome our guest on board sharmila
10:14joshi market expert is now with us uh sharmila um before i ask you your comment on the markets you
10:20know
10:20we've been focusing on a lot of the macro uh discussion as far as what's happening with the
10:26u.s trade um and of course um you know what's happening as a repercussion uh to the foreign
10:32foreign direct investments into india and of course what's happening to the other asset classes like
10:38gold and silver as of on the back of uh such uncertainties that continue to grapple us so of
10:43course there's been a topsy-turvy kind of a move over the weekend as far as the u.s trade
10:47tariffs are
10:48concerned we were at 18 percent then the u.s supreme court quashes all kind of tariffs um deeming them
10:54as illegal then uh donald trump again talks about raising the base 10 percent tariffs to 15 percent
11:00that's lower than 18 percent for us and therefore you we did see some move in the morning trading
11:05session across the board in export oriented sectors but it stocks continue to fall under
11:09pressure because of ai fears how are you maneuvering all of these uh you know news flows at this point
11:15in
11:15time yes i think uh you outlined that really well uh it's kind of ironic that uh you know for
11:21the
11:21longest time we were waiting for uh some resolution to uh this entire tariff and uh trade meeting and
11:27just when uh we had this development that uh we had agreed on this 18 percent we had uh uh
11:34therefore
11:34taking a decision and as you said you know that has added to the uncertainty now because you know as
11:40that famous uh line in the movie goes he picture abhi baaki hai because we don't know how uh the
11:46president is going to react uh we want to be seen how he's sort of going to react and uh
11:51what other
11:52steps uh they would take so it does sort of put uncertainty back in the picture for us you know
11:57just when we were of the of the you know sort of in the mood that yes this is what
12:01it's going to be and
12:02this is what we have to deal with while on the positive side we can you know definitely think that
12:07this
12:07will go away at some point in the future and things will return to a status quo we don't know
12:13as of now how things will really pan out uh but that said i think the mood i just say
12:18you know i
12:18just said and market seem to show that is overall a little positive because 15 percent is still lower
12:24than the 18 percent uh that we were looking at but yes i think you know that ai piece will
12:28continue
12:29to play out so i think you know we go back to basic sort of and you continue to look
12:32at stocks
12:33uh that you've liked uh where the numbers have been good where you think business will be good
12:38going uh where they have something you know going for them uh uh uh which will sort of uh uh
12:45ride
12:46through all the sort of difficulties that we are likely to face over the next uh two or three months
12:51uh so i think maybe uh don't need to buy into it but yes i think you know definitely uh
12:57you could
12:58start looking at a lot of other mid caps and large caps where the valuations are reasonable i think we
13:03have discussed a lot of these stocks whether it's from the fmc space whether it is metals whether it
13:08is banking so i think there is a whole uh universe of stocks there that you can look at and
13:12i think
13:13that's what market is doing and i think we'll continue to do as these sort of things uh play out
13:20over the next couple of months absolutely since we've been also discussing um it stocks uh you know
13:26when it comes to the ai fears that are rising it's uh the indian states that are now jumping
13:31onto the ai bandwagon we're talking about uttar pradesh now with ibm uh the company uh the
13:37state is now inaugurating ai gov tech innovation center in luck now the center which currently
13:42employs 200 people will now focus on solutions to improve productivity accountability transparency
13:49and service delivery in government operations and this is what arvind krishna the chairman and the
13:54chief executive officer of ibm had to say to kumar abhishek of the india today group let's listen in
14:01up is a very important state and it has a lot of talent but it has not been able to
14:07to tap into
14:08the deep tech ecosystem that is building up in india we believe that by building a center here
14:14it is mutually beneficial we can tap into the talent that is from up but then up benefits from the
14:21explosion that our talent will bring into the city and into the state
14:26so uh it is the first of its kind because there is no deep ai tech center yet that has
14:39been done
14:40by any company or in any state so the products we are building here on ai are actually being sold
14:46all
14:46over the world already our investment here is going to be we hope to buy sometime in the next year
14:52or
14:52two get to 2 000 full-time engineering employees here and i believe that that impact in the community
14:58is probably about 20 000 people worth of employment shalmila coming to you and i wanted to discuss this
15:05entire ai theme of course you've marked out for our viewers that don't be in a hurry to jump into
15:10it
15:11stocks just as yet there could be some more uh you know pain that is to be had there but
15:16when it
15:16comes to the ai space we've seen the last entire week go past uh discussing and decoding what happened
15:23at the india ai impact summit at bharat mandapam so many conversations global heads policy makers all
15:29huddled together to ensure that india is seen as a participant and also among the leading countries when
15:36it comes to ai uh how how should a retail investor be really looking at ai as a theme right
15:41now since
15:42all heads are focused on this space i think uh the good thing uh that the summit has done is
15:48that it
15:49has definitely made uh ai a part of your mainstream conversation as far as you know uh whether it is
15:55the large it companies go or whether as we were just hearing uh uh states go where they will be
16:01probably probably welcoming such uh players or looking to make such products because you know
16:06definitely i think uh before this summit happened one felt that you were behind the curve and now there
16:11seems to be an effort to uh sort of uh join uh the ai bandwagon and whether it is collaborations
16:18or
16:18whether it is making products so in that sense it's good but i think that uh stocks will continue i
16:24mean
16:24you know if i were to even just talk specifically of what will happen uh within the id space uh
16:31in
16:31the coming year you will have to continue to look at numbers and see how much of their basket is
16:37really uh ai focused and what is their commentary on that and how they are really positioning themselves
16:43on that vertical because that will play a big role uh in their sort of future uh going ahead you
16:49know
16:49how their revenue stream is going to look or what are the orders they are going to get etc so
16:53i think
16:54two separate issues while we are definitely i think on a good track as far as uh the country and
16:59uh our ai positioning goes i think as far as it stops uh stops go and that space goes uh
17:05you need
17:06to sort of trade with caution as i said earlier because i think you know each company at a time
17:13and see how they are positioning themselves uh with the ai going forward fantastic all right let's actually
17:21look forward to another big conglomerate uh that's betting big on india it's a pepsico which is not just
17:27selling chips and cola in india anymore it's in fact betting big on farmers and even climate
17:31resilience in a conversation with business today televisions karishma sadani jim andrew the cso at
17:37pepsico has said that india sits at the heart of the company's long-term strategy from regenerative
17:43agriculture to sourcing hundred percent of its chip great potatoes locally pepsico now works with 27 000
17:50farmers across 14 states and so this is sustainability or smart long-term business here's what uh he had
17:58to say in an excerpt from that conversation let's listen in you did mention a part where you said
18:05marketing is at the helm of uh discussions of course for a company like pepsico um was there a challenge
18:13to kind of keep a balance between conveying the message via sustainability while also retaining the
18:18identity of the brand you know pepsico as a brand is something we actually just uh want sort of
18:27relaunched our our pepsico brand uh earlier the late last year you know pepsico as a brand is not
18:34all that well known consumers know and love us through our product brands so in here in india you
18:41know pepsi and kuhre and lays right i mean these are brands that people have grown up with pepsico is
18:48a brand some people know and some people don't what we've tried to do is to say all those brands
18:53that you know and love are actually part of a larger company that really cares about the role that we
19:00play in society the role that we play for the communities for the people we interact with you
19:06know people don't know this but pepsico is at its heart a huge agricultural organization we source
19:1350 major crops from 60 major countries in india alone we work with 27 000 farmers across 14 states
19:21so you know we these things are important that we do to be able to have a healthy business a
19:28resilient
19:29supply chain but be able to again bring those brands that consumers love and make sure that we
19:36we still have crops that allow us to create those products you know very well said jim and since we're
19:43getting deeper into understanding india and you did mention of some important data about your presence
19:49climate volatility is one is a risk that india is facing and actually across the globe we're not just
19:57talking about india as one emerging market but across the globe it spread tell me did pepsico have to
20:04revisit its say agri supply chains or strategies that were already existing with farmers at the
20:11fundamental base level in order to adapt what we've done is pepsico has always been a very local for
20:18local company local for local we because from in terms of sourcing we source potatoes uh around the
20:27world and so we're we work with farmers you know here in india but in other countries uh so in
20:35in uh here
20:36the lays and uncle chips are 100 locally grown indian potatoes right and so we've always been deep into
20:45the communities in the countries where we are because we have those sourcing relationships and many of
20:50those races i was i was out in a on a farm earlier this week outside of amdabad and we
20:56met with 10 or
20:5715 farmers and we you know when one of one of the farmers brought uh his father so the first
21:04generation and also his children uh the the third generation so it's a really special moment for me
21:12well of course you can watch the entire conversation on our business today website our youtube channel and
21:18on our social media platforms but let's get back to the markets and with sharmila as well sharmila i think
21:23one of the biggest talks that have been in focus today was idfc first bank we also shared some
21:28details in our initial headlines for all our viewers but the stock fell up to 20 percent in today
21:33recovered a tad bit uh 590 odd crore rupees of a fraud that's got discovered um you know in an
21:40age where
21:40a lot of cyber attacks are um you know hitting global firms it's one of the oldest ways uh uh
21:47of frauds
21:47that we have discovered at idfc first bank in this kind of a new age world uh but uh shocking
21:53as it has
21:53been uh what would you say for uh investors of idfc first bank of course there is an immediate knee
22:00-jerk
22:00reaction at the depositors level they all would want to pull out their uh money from the bank even
22:06though the bank has said that it's only limited to a certain branch and a certain account is um and
22:11rest of them are all uh you know comfortable at this point but what would you say yes and i
22:16think
22:16are two issues really uh one is that uh we need to get clarity and i think that will happen
22:21over
22:22this next week uh in what your which the bank has said that this is uh it's an isolated incident
22:28and
22:28it is uh it is it's just uh you know with that one branch and one set of employees uh
22:36that did some
22:36wrong way because you know i think that possibly is uh easier to sort of accept and figure into your
22:43calculations and if it were a systemic risk and there was something wrong with the way they were
22:48uh you know their internal or checking systems if they are wrong then that is i think uh you know
22:54a bigger concern so i think the first uh sort of guarantee or uh surety or you know like you
23:01need
23:02to be satisfied on that that this is probably a one-time uh thing and it is uh is isolated
23:08to one
23:08branch and then i i was just reading uh through uh what the uh bank also said about this that
23:15they
23:15are saying it is like it is 4.9 and they have conservatively added another one million to it
23:20and they're saying it's 5.9 so you need to see what exactly has gone through and i hope they're
23:25transparent enough to share the details of uh this fraud as it sort of unfolds but it's really
23:32unfortunate you know precisely as you said that in the day and age when you think that you will have
23:37uh to protect yourself from cyber attacks that you would use the sort of the oldest trick in the book
23:43to uh do this but as i said you know i think for me if it if it is a
23:47systemic thing then that's more
23:48of a concern than you know if it were one isolated incident and that's what you know the kind of
23:53surety that i would look for before i you know thought of buying into the stock okay uh let's look
24:00at
24:00the market's closing viewers so the nifty is shut shop at 25 713 as this point in time of course
24:06psu
24:07banks financial services infra stocks auto and fmcg are these stock indices that have managed to pull up
24:13higher but clearly it stocks dragged by over a percent on the nifty you had names uh like adani
24:20ports up by about three percent as among the top gainer you also had kotak mahindra bank two percent
24:26higher dr reddy is also moving up by two percent you're also looking at htfc life and nestle as
24:31among the top movers on the nifty but on the dragging end you saw indalko infasis vipro tech mahindra
24:38sipla trend all of these stocks dragging most of them from the it pack in today's trading session and
24:45now it's time to take some of your questions uh with sharmila at this point so wait sharma from
24:50merit has sent the first question something that we were just discussing sharmila is asking about it
24:55stocks and he says will it stocks bounce back or will the fall continue and uh you know i think
25:02that uh it's too early to really say whether the fall will continue or whether they will bounce back
25:06uh but you know i do think that now valuations are beginning to look attractive and we have had some
25:12companies which are saying that they are partnering with the ai names etc so there seems to be some
25:18strategy developing at their end so my really my advice would be to wait it out for this quarter
25:23year and when uh the companies come back to you and they talk about their plans uh for the coming
25:30year uh just uh sort of read the through the sort of between the lines and see how much they
25:36are
25:36looking how seriously they are taking ai because according to me it's it's a real threat uh to the
25:43way their existing models are so you know how are they responding to it and what is the kind of
25:48focus
25:48that they are putting to it so that will i think give us a better sense of which stock to
25:52buy but
25:53valuations are certainly i think looking much better than uh they're definitely looking at levels at
25:57which you can invest okay ashish from poone asks you is it still a good time to invest in silver
26:03linked
26:03stocks or are the valuations high well i think silver here that is the way i would go and i
26:09don't think
26:10it's a question i mean i'm not i don't know what stocks uh for sale maybe uh they could be
26:15talking
26:16of indus dancing or whatever but that's not the strategy for me i think if you want to be
26:20in precious metals and i think you should have an exposure uh gold and silver etfs is uh the route
26:27that
26:28i would choose fantastic all right charmila thank you so much for being with us and solving all these
26:32queries of our viewers as well always a pleasure to have you with us so viewers we'll wrap it up
26:37on that
26:37note on our business today closing edition do stay tuned for a lot of action that continues and of
26:42course don't forget to tune in at 9 00 a.m tomorrow morning with all the opening action
26:54presented by national stock exchange
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