00:00So what is the BOE likely to make of the data?
00:02So things are likely are trending in the right direction really for the Bank of England.
00:06So today we saw wage growth cool more than expected and unemployment was elevated as expected too.
00:12But you know I want to say that there's still a lot of uncertainty.
00:15The last vote was very very close so it shows just how divided members of the Monetary Policy Committee are.
00:21And look at the data itself, things like payrolls are very prone to revisions so it's hard to get a
00:25very clean read on this.
00:26Plus the ONS itself throws in lots of caveats into the data saying that certain time periods can be a
00:32bit volatile.
00:33So it's hard to kind of get this broader read.
00:35But overall you know the markets are fully pricing to rate cuts by the end of the year.
00:40Again not exactly sure when these are going to come so there's a bit of uncertainty there.
00:44But overall it looks like things are trending in the right direction.
00:46And with tomorrow's inflation data you know hopefully we might get even more confirmation that inflation is coming down whilst
00:52the jobs market is cooling.
00:55Kate the unemployment rate again is at the highest since the pandemic.
00:59So that's another thing for an already unpopular UK Prime Minister.
01:03Yeah definitely away from the economics it's obviously it's also a political issue.
01:07And you know one thing that was really striking was the high level of youth unemployment in the figures.
01:12So obviously for voters this is going to be a very salient issue.
01:15And some of the things that have added to the situation are the tax increases that were introduced last year.
01:21We have higher energy costs for businesses.
01:24The hike in minimum wage has also made it more expensive to hire people.
01:28So overall businesses are still struggling.
01:30It's still a very weak backdrop which isn't going to escape you know voters, politicians, also you know Bank of
01:35England members.
01:36So we've got a couple of risk events on the horizon, local elections, the spring budget.
01:41So we'll be definitely keeping an eye on the pounding gilts and how they perform going forward.
01:45But it's still very uncertain and sort of murky waters ahead.
01:49Yeah I have to say that jobless rate amongst 18 to 24 year olds is 14 percent.
01:53So that you know is a huge huge number as young people bear the brunt of the hiring slowdown.
01:59Thank you as always.
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