00:00Right. So it sounds like you would caution on those that are drawing any parallels with regards to what happened in Venezuela.
00:06I would caution on that. It's a completely different theatre with completely different geography and with a completely different set of actors.
00:14We know, and I've always said this to you, Tom, that the bar for the Iranian regime is very low.
00:19It is regime survival. So I do see them probably doing some sort of compromise at some stage.
00:25The only caveat on that would be that we do seem to have two things which could come together with the Iranian population clashing with another anniversary.
00:39And that is that between February the 1st and 11th, we've got the 10 days of fire, the celebrations of the 47th anniversary of the founding of the Islamic Republic.
00:50The end period of that clashes with the 40 days of mourning of those who were slaughtered in the in the January killings that could turn large amount of people out on the street.
01:01So if the objective of the Americans, I don't think it's actually been explicitly stated, is regime change.
01:07You would need the external actor of the American doing something significant against regime targets, IRGC, and with the population turning out and large sections of the IRGC or Bashish defecting towards them.
01:24Otherwise, you'll have large scale killing again by the Iranian regime.
01:28And in my opinion, they're still capable of killing tens of thousands of other people in the same way that Assad's father did in Hamar in 1982.
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