00:00You've given us a great summary of the performance of the economy, how it's performing, how it's likely to perform, what's your policy outlook, and maybe you can go back to December when you had to project for the year, which makes it somewhat independent of the arrival of a new chair.
00:22What do you think the policy picture, how many rate cuts, for example, in 2026?
00:29So for me, I didn't have any.
00:32To me, I think we have so much momentum in the economy that we need to keep our policy rate in a mildly restrictive stance.
00:42And today, if you look at the returns, the profits in so many businesses, I think it's hard to make a case that our policy stance is heavily restrictive or strongly restrictive.
00:55And so if you want to think about where neutral is, I think maybe one or two cuts would put us at neutral for my outlook.
01:00And that would make it very unlikely if we did that for us to get our inflation back down to our target or even get it on trajectory to that.
01:08So I think this is a time to be patient also because with the government shutdown, the statistics we're going to get at least until April are going to be more volatile.
01:21We're not going to get as clear signals on that.
01:24And so moving definitively in any direction at this point, I just think would not be prudent.
01:31We have time to wait.
01:32The labor markets seem to have stabilized, and that gives us space to let things play out and make sure that inflation gets back on the path to 2%.
01:42We have time to wait.
01:43Thanks going to go.
01:43Bye.
01:45Bye.
01:47Bye.
01:48Bye.
01:56Bye.
02:00Bye.
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