00:00Where is your head at right now on what to watch next?
00:04Hey, guys, thanks for having me. It's a pleasure to be on.
00:07As you know, we're here now because of kind of a bifecta of triggers, really,
00:14from macro headline volatility with Warsh being nominated as the incoming Fed chair,
00:19but more so because of how extended the market has been from a positioning standpoint,
00:24from a CTA, systematic player standpoint.
00:28So it always leaves the market at very, very vulnerable to kind of any kind of macro during the headline.
00:33And we started the year, obviously, with a lot of geopolitical risks, risk events taking place with,
00:39you know, the Iran situation, the Venezuela situation, the Greenland situation.
00:45And really investors have been, especially the retail community,
00:48has been really, really quick to jump on the bandwagon of gold and silver.
00:53You know, gold was a story that was really driven by central banks.
00:55And it was only a matter of time before we saw, you know, retail investors jump in.
00:59And also, one thing that I think is not being talked about enough is how the fact that we're sitting here in a bit of a crypto winter, right?
01:06What that's creating is that all of the natural flow, all of the natural habitat for crypto flow
01:11has been shifted a little bit into chasing this metals trade.
01:14And when you see these kind of flush outs, they could be really, really vicious,
01:18especially when you start to see some gamma move kind of exacerbated the price action.
01:24Yeah. So, Frank, just on that note there on the flush out, you know, people are trying to figure out whether they missed the boat on the rally.
01:32And look, they were waiting for a dip to buy and what a dip we got.
01:35Is this a time to be dipping our toes back into the gold and silver markets or do I wait this out a few days?
01:40Yeah, very good point. Listen, I think that the structurally and even secularly, I think the story is still the same,
01:47especially for the gold market, where we still have, you know, fiat currency debasement issues, fiscal dominance issues.
01:54You know, geopolitical risk does continue to linger, but you have to be cognizant of the technical.
01:58So I always say when you invest, there's really three parts to it.
02:01There's the fundamentals, which remain in check and very valid.
02:04The valuation, which right now seem to be a bit, you know, slightly rich locally here, cyclically, but the technicals were really overextended.
02:13So I think that the thesis remained the same, but now we got to trade around the technicals.
02:17And when you see this kind of ball shocks, though, unfortunately, you got to be a little bit patient to dip, you know,
02:21your toes back in because these things take a little time to kind of settle because you start to see cascading,
02:28you know, price action take place, cross commodity.
02:31We're seeing even crude oil, you know, being on the back foot a bit again today.
02:35And, you know, equity is taking a bit of a breather here to rally.
02:39So it's really going to be kind of a cross asset convexity price action type moves that we're going to see over the next over the next couple of days,
02:47maybe a week, week and a half.
02:49So I think patience here is the key.
02:51It's a long term.
02:52I think it's a long term play here with precious metals, particularly gold.
02:55So dipping your toes too early could be could prove to be pretty pernicious.
03:00I mean, we're still right in this volatility vortex here for gold, even though, you know,
03:06we've seen vol kind of ease a little bit here.
03:09We're still very much in this vortex and one needs to be a little patient to allow things to settle down a little bit.
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