00:00The numbers are just coming out now. We don't see much change in the numbers for initial jobless
00:06claims. They do rise to 209,000 last week, but that's still a very, very low number. Now,
00:12we should point out, you've heard a lot about layoffs the last 48 hours or so, including
00:18more today from Dow. Those won't show up as jobless claims until those people's severance
00:23runs out. So we wouldn't expect the numbers that we've heard this week to suddenly show up.
00:29All right. Here's the interesting thing. Last week's numbers were revised up from 200 to 210.
00:37So the rise to 209 is actually a decline to 209. So that's the way these things work. A couple other
00:44numbers that are out this morning. We have the nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs revisions,
00:50and there's no revision, 4.9 percent for productivity in the third quarter and negative 1.9 percent for
00:56unit labor costs. But here's a number that will matter to the economy, and that is the trade
01:02balance for November. Remember, it came in at 29.2 billion, an extraordinarily low number when first
01:11reported what it reported for October. The number is for November 56.8. One of the reasons that the
01:20Atlanta Fed GDP now number is so strong is because imports collapsed in October after so much stuff
01:29was pulled forward. And now it looks like we're getting much more of the kind of trade balance we
01:34have been getting in the past. Imports rose 5 percent, while exports fell 3.6 percent. So that
01:42will add, well, it will subtract basically from that GDP now figure, and probably we're going to
01:48fall under the 5 percent anticipated number at this point. So, Mike, you think, and you're indicating
01:54really, and I think this is important, that the trade numbers have kind of been skewing the GDP
01:59rate that we've been getting. Can you tell us about underlying demand? What's happening just to
02:03broader consumption outside of that story? Well, underlying demand has been relatively strong.
02:08It has slowed some, and there's going to be a lot of interest in fourth quarter spending. Retail sales
02:13have been okay, and personal spending okay, but we don't have that data for December out yet. So we're
02:20waiting on that, and that will tell us much more about how strong the economy is. One thing that's
02:25going to be concerning is this collapse in consumer sentiment, because people spend what they earn,
02:30and the consumer confidence numbers that came out from the conference board this week suggest that
02:36people don't think jobs are going to be available, and they don't think their incomes are going to be
02:40going up in the months ahead. So in that case, they may be a little more cautious in spending.
02:46Mike McKee, appreciate it. Thank you, sir.
Comments