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00:00that was not a
00:05large applause. Start again.
00:15We're going to make this
00:18interesting.
00:20How many quotes are you
00:22going to want that are going
00:23to be after this?
00:25What session?
00:27I don't know.
00:28I mean, five.
00:30Okay.
00:32So good afternoon,
00:33everyone. It's great to see
00:34everybody here.
00:35It's been an amazing week
00:36here in Davos.
00:38Hopefully everybody
00:40saw that we are having
00:43conversations here.
00:44Hopefully
00:45everybody agrees.
00:46There are some
00:47conversations that we may
00:48disagree.
00:49There are some
00:50conversations that we may
00:51have agreed, but through
00:52those conversations, and I
00:54think today's results
00:55with a peace agreement
00:56earlier today, the World
00:59Economic Forum
01:00is here to have those
01:01conversations, to have
01:02understandings, and also
01:04resolutions.
01:05So it's an important component
01:09of
01:10who we and what we are, and I'm
01:12thrilled to have Elon Musk
01:14here.
01:15He came all the way from
01:17California to be here to see
01:19all of you.
01:20So thank you Elon.
01:21You guys welcome.
01:26I mean, I heard about the
01:28formation of the people.
01:30Peace Summit.
01:31And I was like, is that P-I-E-C?
01:35You know, a little piece of
01:40Greenland, a little piece of
01:42Venezuela.
01:44We got one.
01:45All we want is peace.
01:46Okay, I'm gonna, as I said, I'm a
01:48pretty proud
01:50CEO of BlackRock since we went
01:52public.
01:53The compound
01:55opening return of BlackRock to our
01:56shareholders with 21%.
01:58Since Elon took
02:00Tesla public, his compounded
02:03return
02:05is 43%.
02:08This is
02:10I don't know.
02:10just another advertisement for
02:11everybody, especially for
02:12Europeans.
02:13This is
02:14why
02:15more
02:16citizens
02:17should be investing with
02:18growth.
02:19Investing with
02:20other countries.
02:21Imagine if a lot of pension funds
02:23invested with Elon.
02:25Tesla
02:26went public
02:27and how
02:28much
02:29we
02:30return with the
02:31all the pension funds that
02:33invested side by side.
02:35with Elon and the growth.
02:36So
02:37a spectacular
02:38return.
02:39There's very few
02:40companies.
02:41Well, I don't think there's any other
02:42company as large as Tesla today that has
02:45that compounded return.
02:46So
02:47congratulations.
02:48It's a good measurement.
02:49Well, we have an incredible team
02:50at Tesla.
02:51That's the reason.
02:52So
02:53I want to get into the dirt
02:55the
02:56meaningful component about technology, the
02:59possibilities.
03:00I want to talk about AI and robotics, energy, space.
03:05and the progress ultimately coming down to engineering, engineering discipline, scale,
03:10execution
03:11and
03:12few
03:13few people
03:14if not anyone
03:15has the experience and the fortitude to confront these issues head on.
03:20not just the ideas but the execution across so many different technologies.
03:25Elon
03:26and that's why I thought it's important for us to have this dialogue here.
03:30in Davos.
03:31So
03:32you're presently building on AI
03:35robotics
03:36and space
03:37and energy
03:38all at the same time
03:40when you look across those efforts
03:42what do they have in common from an
03:45engineering standpoint?
03:46Well, they're all very difficult technology challenges.
03:50But
03:51the
03:52overall goal of my companies is to
03:55maximize the future of civilization like basically
04:00maximize the probability that civilization has a great future.
04:05and
04:06to
04:07expand consciousness beyond earth.
04:09So
04:10take
04:11SpaceX for example that
04:12SpaceX is about
04:13both advancing rocket technology to
04:15a point where
04:16we can
04:17extend
04:18life and consciousness beyond earth.
04:20to
04:21the
04:22moon
04:23to
04:24Mars
04:25eventually to
04:26other
04:27star systems.
04:28And
04:29.
04:25I
04:26think
04:27we should always view
04:28consciousness
04:29life as we
04:30know
04:30as
04:31as
04:32precarious
04:33and delicate
04:34because
04:35to
04:35the
04:36the best of our knowledge
04:37we
04:38we don't know if life anywhere else.
04:39You know
04:40I'm
04:40often asked
04:41are
04:42there
04:43aliens among us
04:44and
04:45I'll
04:45I'll
04:46say
04:47that
04:48I am one.
04:49Or
04:50you're from the future.
04:51They don't believe me.
04:52Okay.
04:50So
04:51but
04:52I
04:53I
04:54I
04:55I think
04:55if anyone would know if there are aliens among us it would be me.
04:59And
05:00we
05:01we have
05:029000 satellites up there
05:03and
05:04not once have we had to
05:05maneuver around an alien spaceship.
05:07So
05:08like
05:09I
05:10don't know.
05:10the
05:11bottom line is I think we need to assume that life and consciousness
05:15is extremely rare and it might only be us.
05:18And
05:19if that's the case
05:20then we need to do everything possible to ensure that the
05:25light of can
05:27light of consciousness
05:28is not extinguished.
05:30because we're effectively
05:31we're
05:32the way I view it is
05:33the image in my mind is
05:35a
05:36tiny
05:37candle
05:38in a vast
05:39darkness
05:40tiny
05:40tiny
05:41candle
05:42consciousness
05:43that could easily go out.
05:44And
05:45that's why it's important.
05:45to make life multi planetary such that if there is a natural disaster or
05:49a
05:50man-made disaster on earth that consciousness continues.
05:53That's the purpose of
05:54SpaceX
05:55Tesla
05:57is obviously about
05:59system
05:59sustainable technology and also at this point
06:04we've sort of added to our mission sustainable abundance.
06:09So with robotics and AI,
06:14this is really the path to abundance for all.
06:19People often talk about solving global poverty
06:24or essentially how do we make give everyone a very high
06:29standard of living.
06:30I think the only way to do this is AI and robotics.
06:34Which doesn't mean that it is
06:39without its issues.
06:40I mean we need to be very careful with AI.
06:42We need to be very careful with
06:44robotics.
06:45We don't want to find ourselves in a James Cameron movie.
06:49You know, Terminator.
06:54He's got great movies.
06:55I love his movies.
06:56But we don't want to be in Terminator obviously.
06:59But if you have ubiquitous AI that is the same
07:04potentially free or close to it and ubiquitous robotics then
07:09you will have an explosion in the global economy.
07:14And expansion in the global economy that is truly beyond all press.
07:19You know, and can that expansion be broad?
07:22Yes.
07:23Or is it narrow?
07:24And how can that be created?
07:26How can it broaden the global economy?
07:29Yeah.
07:30Yeah.
07:31It's...
07:32I mean...
07:34The way to think of it is that if you have a large number of humanoid robots
07:39the economic output is the average productivity
07:44per robot times the number of robots.
07:47Right.
07:48And...
07:49And actually my prediction is in the benign scenario of the future...
07:54That we will...
07:55The robots...
07:56We will actually make so many robots in AI that they will actually...
07:59saturate all human needs.
08:01Meaning you won't be able to even think of something...
08:04To ask the robot for at a certain point.
08:08Like...
08:09There will be such an abundance of goods and services.
08:13Because...
08:14The...
08:15The...
08:16My prediction is there will be more robots than people.
08:18So...
08:19How do you then have human purpose in that scenario?
08:23Yeah.
08:24I mean...
08:24You know...
08:25There was...
08:26Nothing's perfect.
08:27You know...
08:28Um...
08:29But...
08:30But...
08:31I mean...
08:32It is a...
08:33A necessary...
08:34Um...
08:35Like you can't have both.
08:37You can't have work that has to be done.
08:39Uh...
08:40Um...
08:41And...
08:42Amazing abundance for all.
08:44Um...
08:45Because if it's...
08:46If it's work that has to be done, then...
08:47Then...
08:48Then you...
08:49And...
08:50Only some...
08:49Some people can do it.
08:50Then you...
08:51Then you...
08:52You...
08:53You...
08:54Can't have abundance.
08:55It's narrow.
08:56It's narrow.
08:57Exactly.
08:58Yeah.
08:54So...
08:55Um...
08:56But...
08:57If you...
08:58If you have billions...
08:59Of humanoid robots.
09:00I think there will be.
09:01Um...
09:02I...
09:03I think...
09:04I think everyone on earth...
09:04Is going to have one.
09:05And gonna want one.
09:06Um...
09:07Because...
09:08Uh...
09:09You...
09:09Who wouldn't want a robot to...
09:11You know...
09:12Um...
09:13Assuming it's very safe...
09:14Uh...
09:15Watch over your kids.
09:16Take care of your pets.
09:17Uh...
09:18If you have...
09:19Elderly parents.
09:20Uh...
09:21A lot of friends of mine said they have elderly parents.
09:23It's...
09:24It's very difficult to take care of them.
09:25And it's expensive.
09:26Yeah.
09:27It's expensive and...
09:28It's expensive and they just aren't enough...
09:29People to take care of the...
09:31There aren't enough young people to take care of the old people.
09:33Right.
09:34Um...
09:34Um...
09:35So if...
09:36Um...
09:37If you had a robot that could...
09:39Take care of...
09:40And protect...
09:41And...
09:42And elderly parents.
09:43I think that would be great.
09:44That would be...
09:44An amazing thing to have.
09:46Um...
09:47And...
09:48I think we will have those things.
09:49So...
09:50I mean overall I'm very optimistic about the future.
09:53I think we're headed for a few...
09:54Future of...
09:55Amazing abundance.
09:56Uh...
09:57Which is very cool.
09:59Um...
10:00And...
10:01And definitely...
10:02We are in the most interesting time...
10:04In history.
10:05Um...
10:06I think there's a more interesting time in history.
10:09Can we, uh...
10:10Can we, uh...
10:11Can we, uh...
10:12You and I reverse aging in this new history?
10:14Or...
10:15Are...
10:16Are...
10:17Are we gonna see it?
10:18Uh...
10:19I haven't...
10:20I haven't put much time into, uh...
10:21The aging stuff.
10:22I...
10:23I...
10:24I do think...
10:24It is a very solvable problem.
10:25Like...
10:26Like you can...
10:27Uh...
10:28I think...
10:29Uh...
10:30When we find...
10:31Figure out what causes aging...
10:32I think we'll find it's incredibly...
10:34Obvious.
10:35It's not a subtle thing.
10:36Um...
10:37The reason I say it's not a subtle thing is because...
10:39All the cells in your body...
10:40You know...
10:41With some...
10:42Pretty much age at the same rate.
10:44Uh...
10:45I've never seen someone with...
10:46With an old left arm and a young right arm...
10:49I've never seen someone...
10:50Ever in my life.
10:51Um...
10:52So why is that?
10:53It...
10:54That means that...
10:54There must be a clock...
10:55A synchronizing clock...
10:56Right.
10:57That is synchronizing across...
10:5835...
10:595 trillion cells in your body.
11:01Um...
11:02And...
11:03Uh...
11:04Uh...
11:05You know...
11:06Uh...
11:07There is some...
11:08Benefit...
11:09To death...
11:10By the way.
11:11It's like...
11:12There's...
11:13There's a reason why we don't actually...
11:14Have a longer lifespan...
11:15Uh...
11:16Because if you...
11:17If you...
11:18Have...
11:19If people do live...
11:19For a very long time...
11:20I think there's some risk of...
11:21An ossification of society...
11:24Of...
11:25Of things just getting...
11:26Kind of...
11:27Locked in place...
11:28Um...
11:29Ok...
11:30And...
11:31Uh...
11:33It...
11:34Just may become...
11:34Sultifying, just not
11:39like vibrancy, but that said, do I think we will
11:44figure out ways to extend life and
11:49maybe even reverse aging, I think that's highly likely.
11:54I'm looking forward to that.
11:59In the future that you talk about, the AI models,
12:02autonomous machines, rockets,
12:04depends on massive increases of compute,
12:07massive increases of
12:09energy, expensive energy, manufacturing scale.
12:14What are the bottlenecks to get there?
12:17And once again,
12:19with all that expenditures, again,
12:22how can we make sure that it's broadened?
12:24Not narrow.
12:25I don't know.
12:29I just think the natural thing is it's going to be very broad.
12:34Because AI companies will seek as many customers as they possibly can.
12:39And the cost of AI will get,
12:41it's already very low and it's, it's planeting.
12:44Not every year.
12:45I mean, almost, the cost of AI has almost changed.
12:49Meaningfully changing on a month to month basis.
12:51There's open, there's open models now everywhere.
12:54Yeah.
12:55Yes.
12:56Very good.
12:57There's open models.
12:58And the open models only lack
12:59There may be a year behind.
13:00Right.
13:01The private, the sort of closed models.
13:04So,
13:05So,
13:06So, I think
13:07So, I think
13:08So, I think
13:09So, I think
13:09AI companies will seek as many customers as possible.
13:12Which means
13:13They'll seek
13:14They'll provide
13:14AI to the world.
13:15But the cost of getting to there, the compute, the chips.
13:19Um,
13:20The fab.
13:21Um,
13:22The powering.
13:24That,
13:25That, to me
13:26What are the, what are the, you know, those are a huge
13:28The limiting factor
13:29Yeah.
13:30I think the limiting factor for
13:31Um,
13:32AI deployment is fundamentally
13:34Electrical power.
13:35It's just
13:36Right.
13:37It's energy.
13:38Yeah.
13:39I mean
13:40We're seeing the
13:41The rate of
13:42AI chip production increase exponentially
13:44But the rate of
13:45Electricity being brought online is
13:47Uh,
13:4850%
13:4950%
13:494% a year.
13:50Yeah.
13:51Yeah.
13:52It's clear that we're
13:53We're very soon.
13:54Maybe
13:54Even later this year
13:55Uh,
13:56We'll be producing more chips than we can turn on.
13:59Except for China.
14:00China
14:01China
14:02China's
14:03China's growth in electricity
14:04Is
14:04Tremendous.
14:05They're built in 100 gigawatts of nuclear as we speak.
14:08Uh, actually solar
14:09And solar
14:10Is the biggest thing in China.
14:11So China's
14:12I believe China's production capacity on solar
14:14Is 1,500 gigawatts a year.
14:15Um,
14:16And they're deploying over a thousand
14:19Gigawatts a year.
14:20Of
14:21Solar
14:22Um,
14:23Now
14:24You know
14:24For continuous solar load
14:26You divide that
14:27By roughly
14:28I don't know
14:29Four or five
14:30Uh,
14:31Call it
14:32That's
14:33Around
14:34200
14:3450 gigawatts of steady state power
14:36Um,
14:37Paired with batteries.
14:38Uh
14:39And
14:40And
14:41That's a very big number.
14:42That's half of the average power
14:44Is
14:45Power usage in the U.S.
14:46Right
14:47So U.S. power
14:48Usage on average
14:49Is
14:49Is
14:50500 gigawatts.
14:51Uh,
14:52China just in solar
14:53Just
14:54Like
14:54In solar
14:55That
14:56Can provide steady state power
14:58Uh
14:59And
15:00Batteries
15:01Can do
15:02Half of the
15:03U.S.
15:04electricity output for your
15:04Air
15:05Just
15:06Solar
15:07Solar
15:08Is
15:09By far
15:10The
15:11The
15:12Biggest source of
15:13Of
15:14Of
15:15Of
15:16Of
15:17Of
15:18Of
15:19Of
15:20Of
15:21Of
15:22Of
15:23Of
15:24Of
15:25Of
15:26Of
15:27Of
15:28Of
15:29Of
15:30Of
15:31Of
15:32Of
15:33Of
15:09Of
15:10Of
15:11Energy
15:12And
15:13Actually
15:14When
15:15You
15:16You
15:18When
15:33These
15:34Now, even if you were to burn Jupiter,
15:39in a thermonuclear reactor,
15:42the metal
15:44the amount of energy produced by the sun would still round up to 100%,
15:48because Jupiter is only .1
15:49If you teleported three more Jupiters into our solar system,
15:54and burnt three more Jupiters, and everything else.
15:59The sun's energy would still round up to 100%.
16:04So, it's really all about the sun.
16:07And that's
16:09that's why
16:11one of the things we'll be doing with SpaceX
16:14in a few years is launching solar-powered AI satellites.
16:19Right.
16:20Because the space is really the source of immense
16:24power.
16:25And then you don't need to take up any room on Earth.
16:29.
16:29So much room and space.
16:31And you can scale to
16:33enormous
16:34.
16:34I mean, you can scale to
16:36I
16:37think
16:38ultimately
16:39.
16:39hundreds of
16:41hundreds of
16:42terawatts a year.
16:43.
16:44.
16:45You and I have had these conversations before, but
16:47why don't you tell the audience
16:49.
16:49what would it take
16:50for the United States?
16:51And what type of geography would it take?
16:53.
16:54.
16:54to have that solar field to electrify the United States.
16:58And then let me ask a question.
16:59.
16:59Why aren't we doing it?
17:00.
17:01Yeah.
17:02So
17:03I guess
17:04.
17:04think about it is
17:05a hundred miles by a hundred miles, we'll call it
17:08a hundred
17:09sixty kilometers,
17:10sixty kilometers
17:11of
17:12solar
17:13is enough to
17:14to power the entire United States.
17:17So
17:18.
17:19.
17:19.
17:20.
17:21.
17:22.
17:23.
17:24.
17:25.
17:24.
17:25Nevada,
17:26.
17:27.
17:28Nevada,
17:29New Mexico,
17:30obviously
17:31wouldn't want it all in one place, but
17:33.
17:34.
17:35.
17:36.
17:37.
17:38.
17:40.
17:41.
17:42.
17:43.
17:44.
17:45.
17:46.
17:47.
17:48.
17:49.
17:50.
17:51.
17:52.
17:53.
17:53.
17:53think that there's a movement towards that here and in the United States?
17:58Well, there is...
17:59As it is in China.
18:00Well, unfortunately, in the U.S.
18:03The tariff barriers for solar are extremely high.
18:08And that makes the economics of deploying solar...
18:13So, artificially high because China makes almost all the solar...
18:18What would it take for Europe or the U.S. to build it?
18:23Commercially.
18:24If it's that scale.
18:27Yeah.
18:28I think...
18:29Well, I can tell you what we're going to do...
18:33You know, SpaceX and Tesla is we're building up large-scale solar.
18:38Right.
18:39So, the SpaceX and Tesla teams both separately are working to build to...
18:43100 gigawatts a year of solar power in the U.S., of manufactured solar power.
18:48And...
18:49That'll probably take a second about that.
18:53Three years or something.
18:54But that's...
18:55These are pretty big numbers.
18:56Mm-hmm.
18:57Um...
18:58And, um...
18:59You know, I'd encourage others to do the same.
19:02Um...
19:03We obviously don't control the, you know, U.S. tariff policy.
19:08Mm-hmm.
19:09Uh...
19:10But, uh...
19:11For...
19:12For other countries...
19:13Uh...
19:14I would...
19:15You know...
19:16That this...
19:17China makes...
19:18Solar cells...
19:18That are incredibly low cost.
19:19And I think, uh...
19:21It would be worth, uh...
19:22Doing a lot of...
19:23S?
19:24Space...
19:25I would like to say,
19:26Uh...
19:27To...
19:28To...
19:29To...
19:30To...
19:31To...
19:32To...
19:33To...
19:34To...
19:35To...
19:36To...
19:37To...
19:38To...
19:39To...
19:40To...
19:41To...
19:42To...
19:43To...
19:44To...
19:45To...
19:46To...
19:47To...
19:23large-scale solo.
19:28So, I know you are...
19:33You're going to be having a couple of big announcements on robotics and what it can do.
19:38I mean, when I went to the factory, you showed me those robots.
19:41Yeah.
19:43How quickly...
19:45You talked about the billions of robots, but...
19:48How quickly...
19:49And how quickly can they be deployed in a manufacturing setting?
19:52How quickly...
19:53How quickly can they be utilized and be functional and be...
19:58With that abundance that you talked about?
20:03Well, humanoid robotics will advance very quickly.
20:07I think...
20:08We do have some of the Tesla Optimus robots...
20:13Doing simple tasks in the factory.
20:17We're...
20:18Probably later this year...
20:20At the end of this year, I think they'll be doing...
20:23Um...
20:24More complex tasks.
20:25Um...
20:26And...
20:27And...
20:28And...
20:28Uh...
20:29And...
20:30Uh...
20:31And...
20:32Probably sometime...
20:33Next year...
20:34I'd say...
20:35That...
20:36By the...
20:37By the end of next year...
20:38I think...
20:39Uh...
20:40Would be...
20:41Selling...
20:42Humanoid robots...
20:43Uh...
20:43To the public...
20:44Um...
20:45That...
20:46That's when we are confident that...
20:47It's very...
20:48Very high reliability...
20:49Very high safety...
20:50Um...
20:51And the range of functionality is...
20:52Uh...
20:53Is...
20:54Is...
20:55Is also very high...
20:56You can basically ask it to do anything you'd like.
20:57You're already...
20:58I've seen that in Tesla cars...
20:59Is...
21:00The...
21:01The software changes that you're doing...
21:02And...
21:03What is it?
21:04Every quarter now...
21:03The software change...
21:04That...
21:05Upgrades the...
21:06The ability of the robot...
21:07Within the car...
21:08Uh...
21:09Yes...
21:10The Tesla full self-driving software...
21:11We...
21:12We update it sometimes...
21:13Just once a week...
21:14Um...
21:15And...
21:16Um...
21:17Recently some...
21:18Of the...
21:18Both companies have said that...
21:19Uh...
21:20It is actually so safe...
21:21Uh...
21:22What...
21:23Tesla...
21:23Full self-driving is so safe...
21:24That...
21:25Uh...
21:26They're...
21:27They're offering...
21:28Uh...
21:29Customers...
21:30Half price insurance...
21:31If they...
21:32If they use...
21:33Tesla full self-driving...
21:33In the car...
21:34And that can be monitored...
21:35By the insurance company...
21:36Can they...
21:37Is that part of the agreement...
21:38Yeah...
21:38Um...
21:39It...
21:40It...
21:41I...
21:42Uh...
21:43I...
21:43I think self-driving cars is essentially
21:48going to solve the problem at this point.
21:50Right.
21:51And Tesla's
21:53rolled out a sort of robotaxi service in a few cities.
21:57Right.
21:58It will be very widespread by the end of this year.
22:03Within the U.S.
22:04And then we hope to get supervised for self-driving.
22:08Approval in Europe hopefully next month.
22:11Really quickly.
22:12Yeah.
22:13And then maybe a similar timing for China hopefully.
22:18I want to move to space because historically space is very capital intensive.
22:23It's historically been done by governments.
22:25Obviously SpaceX changed the whole model.
22:28But we've seen it slow to scale and now I'm starting to see it.
22:33Ramping up in what you're doing and other things.
22:37Talk to us about.
22:38You know the automation and AI how it's changing the economics and building.
22:43And preparing for us in operating in space.
22:47Sure.
22:48Well
22:49...
22:52but
22:53the
22:55new
22:56The
23:08true
23:10Wow.
23:12line by landing the boost stage which we've now landed the boost stage over 500 times
23:17but we have to throw away the alpha stage.
23:22So it burns up on re-entry for Falcon 9 so and that the cost of that is
23:27equivalent to a small to medium sized jet.
23:32But with Starship which is a giant rocket, it's the largest flying machine ever made.
23:37It's a rocket that you're using for the idea of going to Mars, right?
23:40Yeah, Mars and the Moon.
23:42As well as for high volume satellite stuff.
23:45So
23:47Starship, hopefully this year we should prove full re-
23:52usability for Starship which will be a profound-
23:57invention because the cost
24:02of access to space will drop by a factor of a hundred when you achieve
24:07full re- usability.
24:08Right.
24:09It's the same sort of economic difference that you would expect
24:12between say a reusable aircraft and a non-reusable aircraft.
24:17Like if you have to throw your aircraft away after every flight, that would be a very-
24:22difference of flight.
24:23But if you only have to refuel, then
24:27it's the cost of the fuel.
24:29And so
24:30that's really the
24:32the fundamental breakthrough that gets the cost of access to space.
24:37We
24:38think
24:39below the cost of
24:42freight on aircraft.
24:43So
24:44.
24:45.
24:46.
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25:13.
25:14It's Cold.
25:15.
25:16.
25:17.
25:18It's cold.
25:19.
25:21It's cold.
25:22.
25:23.
25:24Yeah, it's...
25:26.
25:27.
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25:39.
25:40on the ground there's any capacity in doing that and then taking that power and bringing it back
25:45to earth is there any way of doing that or you're just taking that power and utilizing it
25:50for the needs like building AI data
25:55in the space I think the case it's a no-brainer for both
26:00building solar powered AI data centers in space because as you mentioned
26:05it's also very cold in space if you're if you're in the shadow
26:08there's
26:10very cold in space just three degrees Kelvin so you just have your solar panel spacing the Sun
26:15and then a radiator that's like point
26:20away from the Sun so it has no sign incidents and then it's and then it's just cooling
26:25it's a very efficient cooling system so
26:30the other effect is that the lowest cost place to put AI will be space
26:35and then that'll be true within two years maybe three three
26:40the latest well so looking 10 or 20 years out what would
26:45how would you describe success with AI or space technology
26:50and where do you see it is that can you are you more certain what's going to happen the next three years
26:55I don't know what's going to happen the next three years or five or ten I don't know what's going to happen
27:00but the rate at which AI is progressing
27:05I think we might have
27:10that is smarter than any human by the end of this year,
27:13and I would say no later than next year.
27:15Wow.
27:16And then probably by 20...
27:2030 or 2031, call it five years from now, AI will be smart.
27:25Rather than all of humanity collectively.
27:30We only have a number of minutes left, but I want to humanize you for a second.
27:35So there's no speculation that you're...
27:37That you're talking about peace.
27:38Right.
27:39I want to...
27:40I mean, I would frame this question by you are the most successful entrepreneur...
27:45in the 21st century, maybe beyond.
27:48I want to...
27:50I want to really get this...
27:51You know, what inspired you?
27:53Who's inspired you?
27:55What was the foundation of your curiosity?
27:58And important...
28:00What was the...
28:01What was the...
28:02What was the...
28:03Was there an ah-ha moment?
28:04A piff...
28:05Have you seen an ah-ha moment at any time in your life and career?
28:08Well...
28:10I've seen...
28:10I mean, as a kid, I read a lot of science fiction, sci-fi.
28:15Fantasy books, and comic books.
28:20And I always liked technology.
28:22I didn't expect to be where I am today.
28:25This seems incredibly implausible.
28:30I'm inspired by reading books about the future, about science fiction.
28:35And I guess I want to make science fiction not fiction forever, at some point, turn science fiction.
28:40Science fiction is a science fact.
28:42And...
28:45You know, we want to have, like, Starfleet and Star Trek.
28:50Really, for real.
28:51Like, where we actually have giant spaceships traveling through space.
28:55Going to other planets, traveling to other star systems, going places where we have a...
29:00I'd like to be beamed up to go back to New York.
29:03I'd like to just be beamed back to New York.
29:05Instead of flying.
29:06Yeah.
29:07Um...
29:08.
29:09.
29:10.
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30:00.
30:01.
30:02.
30:03.
30:04.
30:05That's my philosophy.
30:10Do you see yourself ever going to Mars in your lifetime?
30:15Yes.
30:15That's a long commitment.
30:18I've been asked.
30:19Isn't that three years?
30:20It's six months.
30:23Six months, that's all it is?
30:24Yes, six months.
30:25But the planets only align every two years.
30:27Okay.
30:27So...
30:28So...
30:30Yeah, I've been asked a few times, like, do I want to die on Mars?
30:35And I'm like, yes, but just not on impact.
30:38LAUGHTER
30:43That's a good answer.
30:44Anyway, we're out of time.
30:46Hopefully everybody enjoyed this.
30:48I mean, there's so many myths around Elon Musk.
30:53I can tell you, he's a great friend, and I constantly learn so much from him.
30:58And I'm totally inspired by what he is.
31:03I've been inspired by who he is.
31:08And I'm totally inspired by his vision of the future.
31:12And I don't think it's...
31:13It's such a bad future.
31:14And I agree with his optimism.
31:16So, Elon, thank you.
31:17Any last words?
31:18Well, I think generally...
31:23I think my last words would be, I would encourage everyone to be optimistic and excited.
31:28About the future.
31:29Good.
31:30And generally, I think, for quality of...
31:33life, it is actually better to err on the side of being an optimist and...
31:38wrong, rather than a pessimist and right.
31:40LAUGHTER
31:41On that note...
31:43APPLAUSE