00:00The Super Bowl is set. The Pats taking on the Seahawks.
00:05We have a 45.5 point spread in favor of the quote-unquote road Seahawks.
00:09We have a 45.5 point spread in favor of the quote-unquote road Seahawks.
00:10Initial thoughts when it comes to at least just the line and the total.
00:15I think the 4.5 is legitimate when you just look at the performance now.
00:20Going back-to-back weeks for Sam Darnold, right?
00:22Only through for 140 yards.
00:25Against San Francisco, but wasn't turnover prone.
00:28Stepped up in back-to-back meetings.
00:30Now against the LA Rams, an explosive offense.
00:33And when he's pushed.
00:35He's answered the bell.
00:36So when you look at the quarterback comparison right now.
00:40And to what you brought up at the start of the show.
00:42About how inconsistent Drake May and.
00:45New England's passing attack has been.
00:47I think it's a legitimate number.
00:48Four and a half.
00:49Forty six.
00:50Six and a half to me is a little intriguing when we think about New England's in the.
00:55ability to potentially score points in the playoffs outside the matchup.
01:00against Houston where, you know, CJ Stroud committed multiple turnovers.
01:05I'd be, you know, I thought it would be in the area, to be honest, about 43 and a half.
01:1044 and a half, but 46 and a half to me is a high number.
01:13I like the over early.
01:15of beyond.
01:16Okay.
01:17Now, when it comes to either of these, do you expect any.
01:20Parce que quand je regarde ça, je dirais qu'il y a un lien mouvement.
01:23Le premier spot que je...
01:25...is le 4.5 moving to a 5 or 5.5 in favor...
01:30...of Seattle.
01:31I think the overwhelming sentiment that we see from the public perception...
01:35...is that the defense from Seattle is so strong and consistently throughout the playoffs...
01:40...as I said before that Drake May is struggling versus good pass rushes and that's what...
01:45...we saw from Seattle throughout the playoffs and what we saw from Seattle throughout the entirety of the regular season.
01:50They finished with a top 12 defense in terms of DVOA ever.
01:54Not just this...
01:55...this season, not just over the past five years, ever.
01:58They had one of the best DVOA defenses.
02:00...in from Seattle.
02:01So I would say the line could move to five and a half.
02:03Do you expect any line movement in a major...
02:05...way on either the spread or the total?
02:08I do, but I expect it...
02:10...the opposite way.
02:11And I'll tell you why.
02:12Okay.
02:13So Seattle was the number one...
02:15...seed.
02:16They've had both playoff games at home.
02:19And when you talk about...
02:20...New England, they are battle-tested on the road, right?
02:23They are the first team to win...
02:25...nine games on the road or on a neutral field...
02:28...in that type of environment.
02:30...has it been pretty?
02:31No.
02:32I'm not gonna say...
02:33...it would suggest that it's been, you know...
02:35...I...
02:35...topping.
02:36But you can't take that away from New England, right?
02:39And now you're still...
02:40...we still have now Seattle on a neutral field...
02:43...against a team that has been a dumb...
02:45...dominant road team.
02:46That's where I think you'll get some buyback in...
02:49...on New England.
02:50...and we might see fours or even three and a halves...
02:53...prior to this game...
02:55...kicking off.
02:56It's almost similar to the line movement...
02:57...I believe in what we saw with Denver.
03:00...and New England, right?
03:01We saw five and a halves get up early...
03:03...and then as we inch close...
03:05...to kick off, we saw those three and a halves...
03:08...creep into the market and get as low...
03:10...as three at a couple of books right before kick off.
03:13That's what I'm suggesting.
03:15...but I also think that we might see this total...
03:18...at 46 and a half...
03:20...maybe get down to 45 and a half...
03:22...or a flat 45 across multiple books.
03:25...because I think the mindset is...
03:28...I don't think New England or the perception...
03:30...is that Drake May and this offense could go toe-to-toe...
03:33...with how consistent...
03:35...and JSN and Sam Donald have been in the passing attack.
03:38So that's where I think the line...
03:40...we'll see how it plays out...
03:42...but I do feel that if you like New England...
03:44...this particular...
03:45...potentially could be as high as we get...
03:47...prior to kick off.
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