00:00Incredible tariff stories that do and don't make impact on markets, but I'll start with the...
00:05Line we just had there from Vincent Mortier talking about gold.
00:08Gold doing well again today.
00:09Silver.
00:10Really volatile yesterday and incredibly volatile once again today, now up by 8%.
00:15As I look at my screen this morning, your latest thoughts on precious metals and how long this runs.
00:20Well, I thought it was interesting that quote.
00:22He said he got in two and a half years ago, which I think...
00:25I think would put gold below $2,000, so he's up 150% in that trade, so no wonder he thinks it's...
00:30And I think that gets to the point here, is that the move into gold and silver has been...
00:35Entirely logical over the last couple of years, you know, I'm not saying I've been a big push...
00:40I'm not sure that I tend to kind of stay away from the precious metals to my regret, but my team has been pushing it quite a...
00:45Rest for the last couple of years, and my one concern is that it has been such a long...
00:50Abish trend that everyone is very much involved in it.
00:52It doesn't mean that it's suddenly vulnerable, but...
00:55It means there's probably less juice in the upside, and it means it is probably...
00:59We're getting to that more...
01:00We're getting to that more volatile stage.
01:01So, look, it's still fundamentally logical.
01:03People want to diversify away from the dollar, they're not...
01:05Not great field alternatives, so precious metals is a clear home with the price action right now.
01:10If you haven't been in for the last two and a half years, like a Monday, I'm not sure this is the time to suddenly get involved...
01:15Mark, morning.
01:16It's Guy.
01:17It's every day, Taco Tuesday now.
01:18Mark, morning.
01:19It's Guy.
01:20It's every day, Taco Tuesday now.
01:20Mark, morning.
01:21Mark, morning.
01:22Mark, morning.
01:23Mark, morning.
01:24It certainly today was really...
01:25It's quite incredible, where we started the morning in Asia with these...
01:3025% tariffs on Korea was the headline, was the threat from Trump, and Cosby finished...
01:352.7%.
01:36Really quite incredible.
01:37And this comes in the back of, you know, what's happening...
01:40What happened around Greenland, the threat of 100% tariffs in Canada over the weekend...
01:45It seems to be kind of shrugging off, so suddenly everyone's no longer as worried by these tariff threats.
01:50Now...
01:50It's really important, before people get too carried away, that, hey, wait a sec, if 25%...
01:55What would happen if they got 100% tariffs?
01:56We need to emphasize...
02:00That the extraordinary gain in Cosby here was really because the market is very much dominated by a couple of...
02:05stocks, and one of them is SK Hinex, which surged today, and therefore that kind of points...
02:10...is the fact that the AI theme is still ultimately what's really driving everything...
02:15...in markets over the last year, not so much the geopolitical noise.
02:18The geopolitical noise causes all the disruption...
02:20...and that's what traders need to care about, but for long-term investors, they need to care about the...
02:25...the AI theme, and that's what's driving the Cosby.
02:29Mark, does that mean that the...
02:30...tech earnings out of the US this week are going to be front and centre for you, or is it the Fed, or is it JGB auctions?
02:35Or is it something else?
02:38So, again, it depends where...
02:40...your time span is.
02:41So, if you're an investor, you want to check those earnings, do they still say there were the inflation...
02:45...stage of the AI bubble, which I think we are in, as we've talked a lot about, Tom, going to the...
02:50...last year, I think the macro backdrop for global stocks is incredibly good.
02:53As you know, I think the rest of the world...
02:55...continues to outperform US stocks, but generally we've got good growth, we've got fiscal expansion...
03:00...everywhere, you know, the AI theme is still in the expansionary phase, so I think, as an investor...
03:05...it's still a big positive macro backdrop.
03:07From a trader, I think there are numerous number of risks...
03:10...in the short term, and this is why I think the volatility we're going to see increases.
03:13So, I'm very wary of the JGB auction...
03:15...probably more so that than, in fact, the FOMC, and I don't think earnings will be a big driver...
03:20...for a trader, because I don't think the AI bubble blows up this week.
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