00:00C'est clair, et nous avons aussi entendu ce avec Davos la semaine dernière, c'était definitely Marc Caron.
00:05C'est clair, c'est clair, c'est clair, c'est clair.
00:10Mais est-ce que c'est clair, c'est clair, c'est clair, c'est clair, c'est clair.
00:15C'est clair, c'est clair, c'est clair, c'est clair.
00:20C'est clair, c'est clair, c'est clair, c'est clair.
00:25C'est clair, c'est clair.
00:27Le moment en der N tower, c'est clair, c'est clair vu que Mario filmait pas un nombre en vain.
00:30...
00:30La semaine dernière, vous voyez Ursula von der Leyen, elle est en Indie,
00:33qui est en train de conclure un free trade agreement.
00:35Le problème avec la Chine est que beaucoup de pays ont des problèmes avec le régime.
00:40La nature du régime et les choses que le régime a fait dans le théâtre européen.
00:45Sous-titrage Société Radio-Canada
00:50C'est la capacité, c'est la trade-distorting subsidies.
00:53Et donc, ils ont essayé de trouver un moyen de conclure.
00:55Sous-titrage Société Radio-Canada
01:00C'est une approche d'un risque que beaucoup de pays ont articulé.
01:02C'est une approche d'un risque.
01:04C'est une approche d'un risque d'un risque d'un risque d'un risque.
01:09C'est une approche d'un risque d'un risque d'un risque d'un risque d'un risque.
01:14C'est une approche d'un risque d'un risque d'un risque d'un risque d'un risque d'un risque d'un risque d'un אתrac ascension.
01:17Mais si vous êtes trop près de l'China,
01:20peut-être qu'il s'agit de l'Etat de l'Etat ?
01:22Est-ce que l'Etat de l'Etat de l'Etat de l'Etat de l'Etat ?
01:27Je pense que c'est un fait motivé,
01:29mais comme je disais,
01:30il y a d'autres concerns.
01:32Je pense qu'il y a d'autres questions
01:34qu'il y a de l'Etat de l'Etat de l'Etat de l'Etat de l'Etat de l'Etat.
01:37Et bien sûr, les Brits.
01:38Ils vont essayer de trouver un balance,
01:40un moyen de passer.
01:42Ils vont rester en place de l'Etat de l'Etat de l'Etat de l'Etat.
01:47Ils vont faire ce à l'Etat de l'Etat de l'Etat.
01:48Ils vont rester en place avec les Américains
01:50considerations à leurs risques
01:51de l'Etat d'une
01:52aussi, qu'est-ce qui se passe dans l'Union Européenne Partie de l'Union Européenne ?
01:57Le Kirstarmer allies barred the Greater Manchester Mayor from standing as Labour's candidate.
02:01I mean, this is a wide...
02:02I mean, Francine, you know my view. I don't think Starrmer...
02:07We'll see the year to conclusion. I think he is going to face a leadership contest, the midterm regional election...
02:12On 7th of May, that's going to be a massive problem for Starrmer and for Labour given their...
02:17performance in Scotland, in Wales, in the English councils and so I think...
02:22The leadership challenge is coming. Andy Burnham would have been a favourite and a darling of the soft left.
02:27The unions like him, he's very popular obviously, with the bass and so that would have...
02:32reflected I think a big threat for Starrmer and that's what they're trying to manage in the very short term, but that doesn't prevent the...
02:37structural challenges that have prevented Labour from performing well. They don't have a plan...
02:42for power, Starrmer hasn't managed the parliamentary party well, the polling is abysmal, they don't...
02:47have a clear narrative or a message for the country and so I think leadership challenge...
02:52will come, I think Angela Rayner is my base case to replace him, if not then I think West Streeting is.
02:57is highly likely to succeed if Angela Rayner does not.
03:01What does it mean for the economy?
03:02because, you know, what they offer at the moment they say is stability.
03:06I mean I think...
03:07I think if it's a leader to the left of Starrmer, and it will be, they're going to want to pick apart...
03:12the fundamental, let's say governing philosophy of this government.
03:17which is going to be a change to the fiscal rules.
03:19I don't think they're going to throw the fiscal framework in the...
03:22Ben, Angela Rayner, you know these guys on the soft left that's not...
03:28so what has gone...
03:27Il n'y a pas le même constituent que Corbyn et ses alliés.
03:32Sous-titrage Société Radio-Canada
03:37...and spend more.
03:38I don't think they'll want to sign up to the fiscal straitjacket that Reeves and Starr...
03:42...and some have alighted on that is dictating so much of what the government is and is not able to do on their domestic...
03:47...agenda.
03:48What happened over Greenland, so I love your piece actually that, you know, it says Trump's ruling...
03:52...and out of military action does not defuse a crisis.
03:54That's what I felt.
03:55Right.
03:56...like a side of relief in Davos saying, oh, he's not sending the military, crisis averted, let's move on.
04:01Right.
04:02...but it's deeply disturbing actually when that's even, you know, a base case.
04:06So I wrote that piece after Trump had excluded a military intervention, so military...
04:11...but then we had the further climb down later in the day where he talked about...
04:16...well, working through the NATO framework, so now I do think the most extreme tell...
04:21...or risks have been controlled for, the tariff threat and any unilateral intervention, whether...
04:26...militarily or through economic coercion, so he's going to do a deal in the NATO framework and bilaterally with Copenhagen.
04:31...and Greenland, I think the remarkable thing is this is a deal that's been on the table for over...
04:36...a year, the Danes, the Americans and the Greenlanders have been talking about...
04:41...reinforcing security on the island for the Arctic, but Trump...
04:46...was opposed to working with NATO and felt that he needed sovereign control over the island in order to...
04:51...deliver on these security goals. I think a combination of European resolve...
04:56...congressional and public opinion in America and, of course, market pressure.
05:01...resulted in that big taco that we all saw in Davos last week.
05:05I mean, does the president...
05:06...go back after Greenland because he doesn't...
05:09...I mean, a lot of the times what I'm told by people...
05:11...close to him is that he just doesn't let go.
05:13I mean, I think on Greenland, I think we're in a more...
05:16...boring negotiating corridor now. I think the risks have largely been controlled for...
05:21...and I suspect there will now be an agreement that sees the Americans reinforce their security.
05:26...on the island, but they do it in a context through NATO with Rutter and bilaterally with the...
05:31...dains, maybe the upgrade, the 1951 treaty that will give the U.S.
05:36...more of what they're looking for. Sovereign bases on the island is something that's been talked about...
05:39...as long as that's done in conjunction with them.
05:41...enmark and Greenland, that may be a possibility. It doesn't mean other risks in the trans...
05:46...atlantic alliance don't remain real. I mean, Europe has signed up to a 5% spending...
05:51...target by 2035 on security and defence. Many countries, Francine, just don't have the fiscal...
05:56...pathway to get there. The UK and France being two very obvious examples and so at the moment...
06:01...of this midterm review, there may be a question when the Trump administration looks at the numbers and says...
06:06...is not following through on their commitments. There remain very real risks in the Ukraine theater.
06:11...the administration... Which by and large is forgotten about. Which has been completely forgotten about. But again...
06:16...where the administration is really pressuring Zelensky to concede to territorial...
06:21...concessions in the Donbass, in particular in Donetsk, in areas of territory that the Russians have not been able...
06:26...to win on the battlefield. So that remains an existential and very real risk.
06:31...for Europe. And of course implementation of the trade deal is now stuck because the...
06:36...European Parliament said they're not going to ratify it. So that creates the risk of more bilateral tensions.
06:41There's of course things around free speech and the Digital Services Act and the Digital Markets.
06:46...and so there are many irritants and many potential sources of friction in the transatlantic relationship.
06:51...that may blow things up again.
06:52Do you have a better understanding now of what this new world order could look like?
06:56I mean I think the Europeans are getting to grips with the new world order. That isn't...
07:01...governed on the basis of rules and norms and institutions that they're so comfortable with.
07:06...and I think we are beginning to see the Europeans flex a little bit more. But again, Francine, you know it's...
07:11...about that draggy agenda on economic competitiveness. It's about capital markets union.
07:16...about the tech ecosystem, about doing more to ensure the Europeans, as Macron has always said.
07:21...and it can be more strategically autonomous. And I think there, there are still some ways to go.
07:25Is there a time...
07:26...online problem, that you can be more autonomous, but it takes time to build up your supply chains, to have...
07:31...access to rare earth?
07:32I mean I think it's a crisis and non-crisis context problem for the Europeans. I think...
07:36...there's this, there's always this question about will Europe perform well in the crisis? And my general expectation...
07:41...is, it tends to perform better than...
07:44...tends to perform better than...
07:46...the consensus suggests. The problem with Europe is it doesn't have a playbook for governing in normal times.
07:51So as soon as the existential threat has removed itself, as soon as the environment is...
07:56...a bit less menacing, everybody again begins to rest on their laurels and some of these...
08:01...important forms don't move forward.
Comments