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00:00Two days ago, the American model had this. One day ago, the American model had this.
00:06This afternoon, hot off the press, the latest run of the GFS, the American model, shows this.
00:13Great googly moogly, what in the world is that? That is nuclear detonation, my friends,
00:17right over Virginia and North Carolina to the tune of 36 inches of snow between
00:22Roanoke Rapids and North Carolina and Danville, Virginia. This would be a monster snow for the
00:29ages over a foot in much of Virginia, North Carolina, back into West Virginia, Tennessee,
00:34and into the mid-Atlantic. But is the GFS correct? Well, I've told you that the ceiling on this event
00:39is very, very high, and it's nice to see a model actually show the potential of the system once
00:44in a while to validate that thesis. But there's another side to the story. Tonight, I'm going to
00:51only show you two models to keep it really, really simple, the European and the GFS. You've already
00:56seen the GFS. We're going to see what the European shows and hear what it has to say here in just a
01:00minute. The synoptic situation is very simple in terms of the players. How they come together is
01:05not so simple. And that is the difference between the two models. And I'll show you the European
01:09here in a second. Welcome into the channel. If you're new here, my name is Jason, and I've been
01:13tracking weather for over four decades. Hit the subscribe button down below. We're growing rapidly
01:17here. I want to thank all the new subscribers to the channel. Like the content and comment in the
01:21comments. Let me know where you're commenting from. And most importantly, if there's anything I can pray
01:24about, please put it down there. I'll read their comments. I may not respond to all of them, but I
01:27definitely will read and pray over anything you put in there. I'm going to show you the radar really
01:31quickly just to show you there's not much going on across the country. We're seeing some lake effect
01:35snows up here around Lake Erie and Lake Ontario and off of Lake Michigan Huron as well. And so we're
01:42looking at that as forecast. And then in the Pacific Northwest, got some rain moving in. Eureka,
01:48California about to pick up some heavy rain down there. And then, of course, our alerts map. Boy,
01:52this was lit up. It was very vibrant yesterday and the day before with winter storm warnings,
01:56ice storm warnings. Those are out of here and gone. A few cold air alerts left up here in the
02:01Ohio Valley where you've got that deep snowpack and that excellent radiational cooling going to get
02:06down really low tonight, below zero in spots. And then freeze warnings down here in Florida. I joke
02:13about falling iguanas, but that really is a real thing. They get cold and they fall out of the trees,
02:17and you're going to experience some of that down in Florida as well. All right, so we're getting right
02:22into it. This is the European from two days ago, and you can see a whole bunch of nothing here with
02:26the system in the southeast. Look what it did yesterday. There it is blowing up some snow back
02:32here. All right, so we've got snow in North Carolina, not much snow anywhere else though. And
02:36then this afternoon, look at that. Decrease in snow amounts. That's not the way you want to see a
02:43trend happen if you're looking for big snow. But there's still snow here, and I'll tell you why that
02:47is in just a minute. But here's what's kind of going on. All right, in the mid levels, you have
02:52energy and how that energy works and rotates and moves and forms and merges with other energy
02:58determines the surface positions and surface intensity of any cyclones that form at the
03:05surface. All right, so here's what the GFS is doing. We've got this big lobe. We've been watching
03:09this the last couple of days, big lobe of energy. It's a lobe of the polar vortex. This thing is
03:13pressing really far to the south. That's why it's very, very, very cold. And then we've got a couple
03:18of other little short waves here in around the subtropical jet. All right, so here's what the GFS
03:23does. Watch this. It rotates this whole thing around, and it starts to capture this energy, and it
03:29starts that process back over the Tennessee Valley. And look what it does. It looks like a little
03:32teardrop here, doesn't it? Takes on that little teardrop shape. And by the time we get into Saturday
03:37afternoon, look what's happened. We've got this trough already kind of angled this way, a little
03:43bit to the northwest, to the southeast. That's called negative tilt. And when that happens, you get an
03:49explosion of lift. Look at these lines here fan out. That is divergence in the mid-level of the atmosphere.
03:53You've got a bunch of rising motion over North Carolina and Virginia, and it is just going to town,
03:59snowing to beat the band. And this thing is closing off of the Tennessee Valley, basically. And then it
04:04really goes negative tilt. Got a low pressure developing off the coast, and then that will
04:09get strong and bomb out. Probably going to see blizzard conditions here, and then everything
04:14kind of moves out. All right, so we'll roll that back. Here's what the European is doing. Look what
04:17the European is doing. Starts out looking kind of the same, but not really. Look what the GFS has got
04:22this sort of this consolidated shortwave packet back over almost into the Dakotas, South Dakota and
04:28Nebraska. And look what the European is doing. It's kind of strung everything out, and it's sticking its
04:33little tongue back here into South Dakota, but it's not really doing much with that until you get
04:38way on out here. And then it finally starts to close off. But where? Over North Carolina. And look
04:42at the axis of the trough. It's still kind of like this. It's from northeast to southwest. That's a
04:48positive tilt, and you don't get nearly as much dynamical forcing and moisture influx, and your low
04:55pressure develops farther off the coast because this whole apparatus is farther to the east, and it
04:59captures the southern stream shortwave a little farther to the east. So you get all this phasing, but it
05:04happens too far to the east to let any of that big snowfall happen over land. All right, so that's what the
05:10European is doing. Which one's right? I don't know. Nobody on earth knows. There's nobody that's going to tell
05:16you. I know what's going to happen. Historically, these things tend to trend back to the west a little
05:22bit more to give some credibility toward the GFS solution. But the European is a better model than
05:27the GFS, and if I have two models to pick from, and one's showing a big snowstorm and one's not, and I'm a
05:33snow fan, I want the European and the European ensemble to be showing me the big snows and not the GFS.
05:39That said, the GFS has been trending bigger and bigger and bigger. It's basically a carbon copy of its 12z run.
05:45This is the 18z run that I'm showing you. And the European was trending to the east and sort of
05:50stopped and maybe reversed that slightly in the AI version of that model too at 12z. I haven't seen
05:56the 18z data yet, but that'll come out shortly, and we'll take a look at it. All right, so that's
06:00what's kind of happening here. I'm going to slap that back on the weather bell display. And so here's
06:05what happens at the surface, all right? So as we roll this back, the GFS starts to snow Friday evening
06:10up into Virginia into the mountains of North Carolina. A little rain farther to the south, but those heights
06:13are going to crash, and you're going to see big snows break out. And so by the time we get into
06:17Saturday morning, it is just coming down and probably whiteout conditions over here near
06:22Raleigh-Durham and into the, you know, tidewater of Virginia really cranking. So that lows start to
06:28get together off the coast and just really intensify. 978 millibar low, and these heights just
06:33crash in, snowing, snowing, snowing. By the time you get into Saturday night into Sunday morning,
06:38still snowing. Low pressure still cranking up. Heavy snow, strong winds up and down, even making
06:44it into New Jersey and southern New England. And there it goes away by the time it gets on into
06:49overnight Sunday. We're scraping Maine with snow, and then everything's pulling out by Monday morning.
06:55That's the GFS because of what it's doing in the mid-levels, all right? Here is what the European is
07:00doing, all right? So the European brings a little bit of light snow in, and the reason it's doing that is
07:04that upper level low that we saw, those circles on that other map, very, very strong system, and it's going
07:09to squeeze out moisture, all right? So a lot of moisture around here, drawing moisture back in from the
07:15coast with that upper level low. But it is really, really, really, it's happening a little bit too far to
07:23the east to really get in on the big snow action and all of that. So there it goes. It develops, but it's too far to
07:29the east to bring the heavy, heavy snow anywhere else outside of the coastal plain of North Carolina,
07:36and then it takes on up, scrapes Cape Cod, and there you have it, all right? So which one of those is
07:40right? Hard to say. Let's take a look now at some of the ensembles for the GFS and the European and see
07:46what they have to tell us. I'm interrupting myself with this very important announcement. During the
07:51recording of this video, the 18Z Euro and Euro AI came out with something very important to tell us,
07:57and I'm going to show that to you here in just a moment. Now back to our regularly scheduled
08:03programming. All right, we need to look at the ensembles to see if they agree with their operational
08:08runs. That is good forecasting, and so we always want to do that. We don't want to just take the
08:13operational runs word for something. We want to see how they compare to their own ensemble suite and
08:18how other ensemble suites are comparing to each other as well. This is the European ensemble.
08:22So shortly before midnight on Saturday night, I guess Sunday, midnight, Sunday a.m., and you can
08:30see sort of the mean is this green low. This is the sort of the mean area of the low pressure center
08:35and where the green is, and you can see quite a few L's to the left of that, okay? So this would be
08:41sort of skewing back to the left in terms of the ensemble members. So it makes me think that we
08:47may end up seeing that west trend after all. What about the strength of any lows that develop off
08:53the coast? Well, this is our spaghetti chart. We looked at this last night. It just shows you where
08:57the low pressures, the individual members have a circle, and where those circles are is where the
09:04low pressure exists, and the color of the circles represents the strength, okay? That's what you're
09:08looking at here. You see it looks messy because there are 51 different ensemble members here,
09:13so it's kind of messy, but they're all kind of centered in the same spot. It gives you confidence
09:17there's going to be a storm, and as you go on out of time, look, you start to see some reds showing
09:20up. That's really, really strong, and some of the operational runs are actually showing that
09:24strength, and here's the GFS. Less ensemble members to look at, so that's why there are less L's,
09:29but still quite a few back on the left side. So it gives me some, you know, at least some confidence
09:36that we might see a little correction back, okay? And here are the spaghetti plots for that,
09:41and as you roll these on out too, again, you see everything kind of goes up the coast,
09:44and some of these get strong down into the blues and the reds as well, so no need to belabor that
09:49point. Here is the GFS ensemble mean trend over the last several ones, and look at it blowing up
09:55as we get closer to the event. We're seeing the GFS get stronger with more snow in the ensemble,
10:02just like the operational is doing. So, hmm, things that make you go, hmm, so we're watching that.
10:07We're watching the European kind of be on the other side of the coin, but let's see what the
10:11European ensemble mean is telling us. Look at this. Off, off, off, off, off, okay? It's completely
10:17different than the GFS. It's going the other direction. As we get closer to the event, it's
10:21seeing less and less snow under normal circumstances. I would be disappointed by this if I'm a snow lover
10:27because the GFS is a little less reliable than the European. One other thing I want to show you too
10:32that's kind of interesting here before we get to the brand new runs that have just come out is look
10:37at this. I'll give Jay credit on our weather site for pointing this out. This little swirl down here
10:42coming through is a 925 millibar pressure level low, and you can see that thing swirl around going
10:49into South Carolina. You see that? Going to be enhanced lift to the north of that. Even if the
10:54low pressure is off the coast, you still got this little anomaly coming through, and it will help to
10:59enhance the lift in the northern sections of where it is north of it. That's what I'm trying to say
11:06there. That'd be the best way to say it, but that's what's going on with all of that, and that will
11:10just, it's just another little feature to watch, and it blows up off the coast. My goodness, as that
11:14thing gets stronger. Now, look at this. European AI. All right, so this is the latest version of the
11:19European AI. It trended west for a while, and then back to the east it goes, and now it looks like it
11:26might be coming back west with the latest run. There's certainly more precipitation. I'm not
11:30going to show you that map, but you can see a reflection in the snowfall. Up here off the coast
11:35of the mid-Atlantic and New England, it's still not reflected back yet to the west, but here in
11:41North Carolina, it's seeing the reflection of maybe a stronger surface low a little closer to
11:46the coast, enhancing the snowfall rates back in here. So that is a feather in the cap of the snow geese,
11:53and look at the European, what it did with its very latest run. You see what it did? Off the
11:59coast, and then boom, everything comes back, and look at this explosion of snow in the very latest
12:03run over North Carolina. Why did that happen? Well, here's why it happened. That low pressure that it
12:08was kind of keeping positively tilted in the mid-levels of the atmosphere that we looked at
12:13earlier, latest run has it back over here centered somewhere around Georgia, up near Atlanta, just
12:20northeast or northwest of Atlanta, and we've already got a positive tilt here. This would be
12:26a big-time shift to the GFS and a coup for the GFS if this works out. Is it going to work out? I don't
12:33know, but we've seen the GFS trend back to the west all day, and maybe now we're seeing the Europeans
12:38start to trend back in that direction too. So we shall see, my friends. I just wanted to show you the
12:45very latest on what's going on, taking a look at those temperatures as we head over the next week.
12:49Very cold. We'll get above free, and I'm out. I'm back too far here. Here we go. This is real time.
12:56Get in here now, and we see cold temperatures just spilling into the east, Great Lakes, Midwest,
13:00into the Ohio Valley, and as we get into Saturday, look at these temperatures down here. Temperatures
13:04in the 20s and teens with heavy snow, according to the GFS. Very, very cold. Following week,
13:10Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, we start to finally warm up a little bit. Still below normal,
13:15but another punch of cold air is lurking in Canada. Here it comes back down by the time we get two
13:19weeks out, February the 12th. We're starting to see Canada load back up with cold, and we'll see
13:24how that translates out in time. But the cold pattern continues to persist, and that's the very
13:29latest on the potential snowstorm for this weekend. We'll have much more tomorrow as models continue
13:34to trend and come into agreement, and I'll be back with another video. In the meantime, I hope you have a
13:38wonderful evening, and we'll see you back soon. Take care, everybody, and God bless.
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