00:00Incredible tariff stories that do and don't make impact on markets.
00:03But I'll start with the line we just had there from Vincent Mortier talking about gold.
00:08Gold doing well again today.
00:09Silver really volatile yesterday and incredibly volatile once again today.
00:13Now up by 8% as I look at my screen this morning.
00:16Your latest thoughts on precious metals and how long this runs.
00:21Well, I thought it was interesting that quote.
00:22He said he got in two and a half years ago, which I think would put gold below $2,000.
00:26So he's up 150% in that trade.
00:29It's no wonder he thinks it's good.
00:30And I think that gets to the point here is that the move into gold and silver has been entirely logical over the last couple of years.
00:37You know, I'm not saying I've been a big pusher of it.
00:40I tend to kind of stay away from the precious metals to my regret.
00:43But my team has been pushing it quite aggressive for the last couple of years.
00:46And my one concern is that there's been such a long established trend that everyone is very much involved in it.
00:52It doesn't mean that it's suddenly vulnerable, but it means there's probably less juice in the upside.
00:57And it means it is probably we're getting to that more volatile stage.
01:00So, look, it's still fundamentally logical.
01:02People want to diversify away from the dollar.
01:04There are not great field alternatives.
01:06So precious metals is a clear home.
01:08With the price action right now, if you haven't been in for the last two and a half years like a Monday,
01:12I'm not sure this is the time to suddenly get involved enthusiastically.
01:16Mark, morning.
01:17It's Guy.
01:17Is every day taco Tuesday now?
01:22Certainly today was really quite incredible where we started the morning in Asia with these 25 percent tariffs on Korea was the headline was the threat from Trump.
01:33And KOSPI finished up 2.7 percent.
01:36Really quite incredible.
01:37And this comes in the back of, you know, what's happened around Greenland, the threat of 100 percent tariffs in Canada over the weekend,
01:43which Canada kind of seems to be kind of shrugging off.
01:46So suddenly everyone's no longer as worried by these tariff threats.
01:49Now, it's really important before people get too carried away that, hey, wait a sec, if 25 percent tariffs on Korea got a 2.7 percent gain,
01:57what would happen if they got 100 percent tariffs?
01:58We need to emphasize that the extraordinary gain in KOSPI here was really because the market is very much dominated by a couple of stocks,
02:05and one of them is SK Hinex, which surged today.
02:08And therefore, that kind of points to the fact that the AI theme is still ultimately what's really driving everything in markets over the last year,
02:16not so much the geopolitical noise.
02:18The geopolitical noise causes all the disruption, and that's what traders need to care about.
02:22But for long-term investors, they need to care about the AI theme, and that's what's driving the KOSPI.
02:28Mark, does that mean that the tech earnings out of the U.S. this week are going to be front and center for you,
02:33or is it the Fed, or is it JGB auctions, or is it something else?
02:38So, again, it depends what your time span is.
02:40So if you're an investor, you want to check those earnings.
02:43Do they still say that we're in the inflationary stage of the AI bubble, which I think we are in?
02:47As we've talked a lot about, Tom, going to the end of last year, I think the macro backdrop for global stocks is incredibly good.
02:53As you know, I think the rest of the world continues to outperform U.S. stocks.
02:56But generally, we've got good growth. We've got fiscal expansion almost everywhere.
03:01You know, the AI theme is still in the expansionary phase.
03:03So I think for an investor, it's still a big positive macro backdrop.
03:07From a trader, I think there are numerous numbers of risks in the short term,
03:10and this is why I think the volatility we're going to see increases.
03:13So I'm very wary of the JGB auction tomorrow, probably more so that than, in fact, the FOMC.
03:17And I don't think earnings will be a big driver for a trader because I don't think the AI bubble blows up this week.
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