00:00Joe, the Super Bowl is set.
00:02The Pats taking on the Seahawks.
00:03We have a four-and-a-half point spread in favor of the quote-unquote road Seahawks.
00:08We have a 45-and-a-half over-under.
00:11Initial thoughts when it comes to at least just the line and the total?
00:14Yeah, I think the four-and-a-half is legitimate when you just look at the performance now
00:19in back-to-back weeks for Sam Darnold, right?
00:22Only threw for 140 yards against San Francisco but wasn't turnover prone,
00:27stepped up in back-to-back meetings now against the L.A. Rams, an explosive offense,
00:33and when he's pushed, he's answered the bell.
00:36So when you look at the quarterback comparison right now
00:39and to what you brought up at the start of the show about how inconsistent
00:43Drake May and New England's passing attack has been,
00:47I think it's a legitimate number, four-and-a-half.
00:4946-and-a-half to me is a little intriguing when we think about New England's inability
00:55to potentially score points in the playoffs outside the matchup against Houston
01:00where, you know, C.J. Stroud committed multiple turnovers.
01:04I'd be, you know, I thought it would be in the area, to be honest,
01:08about 43-and-a-half, 44-and-a-half.
01:11But 46-and-a-half to me is a high number.
01:13I like the over early on.
01:15Okay. Now, when it comes to either of these, do you expect any line movement?
01:20Because when I look at this, I would say if there's going to be any line movement,
01:24the first spot that I would be looking is the four-and-a-half moving to a five
01:28or five-and-a-half in favor of Seattle.
01:30I think the overwhelming sentiment that we see from the public perception
01:34is that the defense from Seattle is so strong and consistently throughout the playoffs,
01:39as I said before, that Drake May is struggling versus good pass rushes.
01:44And that's what we saw from Seattle throughout the playoffs.
01:47That's what we saw from Seattle throughout the entirety of the regular season.
01:50They finished with a top-12 defense in terms of DVOA ever.
01:54Not just this season, not just over the past five years, ever.
01:57They had one of the best DVOA defenses from Seattle.
02:00So I would say the line could move to five-and-a-half.
02:02Do you expect any line movement in a major way on either the spread or the total?
02:08I do, but I expect it the opposite way, and I'll tell you why.
02:12So Seattle was the number one seed.
02:16They've had both playoff games at home.
02:18And when you talk about New England, they are battle-tested on the road, right?
02:23They are the first team to win nine games on the road or on a neutral field
02:28in that type of environment.
02:30Has it been pretty?
02:31No.
02:31I'm not going to say it would suggest that it's been, you know, eye-popping.
02:35But you can't take that away from New England, right?
02:39And now you still have now Seattle on a neutral field against a team that has been a dominant
02:45road team.
02:46That's where I think you'll get some buyback in on New England, and we might see fours
02:51or even three-and-a-halves prior to this game kicking off.
02:55It's almost similar to the line movement, I believe, in what we saw with Denver and New
03:00England, right?
03:01We saw five-and-a-halves get up early, and then as we inch closer to kickoff, we saw
03:06those three-and-a-halves creep into the market and get as low as three at a couple of books
03:12right before kickoff.
03:13That's what I'm suggesting.
03:14I also think that we might see this total at 46-and-a-half maybe get down to 45-and-a-half
03:21or a flat 45 across multiple books, because I think the mindset is, I don't think New
03:28England or the perception is that Drake May and this offense could go toe-to-toe with how
03:34consistent JSN and Sam Donald have been in the passing attack.
03:38So that's where I think the line will go.
03:40We'll see how it plays out.
03:41But I do feel that if you like New England, this potentially could be as high as we get
03:46prior to kickoff.
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