00:00Maeda Rouge joins us from the European Council on Foreign Relations.
00:05Okay, Newsom warns European leaders don't take it lying down.
00:09Besant, as we heard there, said deep breaths.
00:13How should officials be reacting to Trump's plans to seize Greenland?
00:19First of all, thank you for having me.
00:22I think they're sort of, how should they or how have they been is combining these two.
00:28One year into Donald Trump's second term, I think European leaders have learned the hard way that just flattery and persuasion doesn't work with President Trump and that you need to show strength and push back.
00:46On the other hand, just talking tough without using actual leverage does not work either.
00:53So you have to show push back and combine it, obviously, with dialogue, which is, I think, what in between unified statements that EU leaders have issued on Greenland,
01:09some of the sort of political unity that has been shown behind, standing behind Denmark, stronger NATO, European Arctic posture and, you know, possibly use of some economic leverage
01:24would really increase the costs for such an operation in Greenland and make, importantly, these costs very visible.
01:34Well, we've already heard from the French leader that we could see the bazooka pulled out.
01:44Is that enough? Is the bazooka enough to hold back Trump when it comes to tariffs over Greenland?
01:49Well, I guess there's sort of two objectives that you'd have, holding back with tariffs.
01:59And the other one is, again, visibly increase the costs for the president, not just internationally, but also domestically for the threats of taking Greenland's territory.
02:15I think what we need to keep in mind is that unlike some other projects, this one is really President Trump's own fixation.
02:27And there's not that much support in the American public among Trump's base or in Congress or even in the cabinet for this adventure.
02:41And so I think it would boil down to EU being able to credibly threaten the use of anti-coercion instrument in order to demonstrate to American public as well
02:57and American sort of political elites that, you know, the Greenland adventure would trigger not just counter tariffs,
03:10but also limits on market access in the EU and the alliance fallout with the NATO.
03:15So that's when Washington would start asking whether this is all worth it.
03:21Because at the moment, it's the American public starting to hurt domestically over prices, inflation.
03:30I guess going down the tariff road would really see that approach become even more difficult for the American public.
03:40So you reckon that's where it's going to hurt Trump most?
03:43Would he listen to that, though?
03:45I mean, is he someone who's in touch with what people are paying for eggs and milk and meat?
03:53Well, that's not, you know, I don't think that's a real question.
03:56Is he sort of in touch with that?
03:58I think the real question is, would he back off if these costs became visible and credible?
04:06And if you listen very carefully to his statements before, you know, boarding the plane to Davos,
04:13he already signaled that, you know, an agreement with NATO will be found.
04:20So I think that we need to stop taking his threats as absolutely inevitable.
04:28This is obviously a real risk because American military presence in Greenland is uncontested.
04:38So it would be a very easy operation.
04:41But I think if we had heard the same threats made before the Venezuela operation,
04:46we would have probably taken them a little bit with a grain of salt.
04:51And, you know, after a Venezuela operation, the president is almost on sugar high,
04:58feeling that he can do anything that he wants.
05:03I still believe that given the constellation of all of the factors,
05:10we really need to sort of look at the credibility of his threats
05:16through the prism of how easy does he see this operation as unfolding if he sees no costs
05:24and no counterpressure, no costs internationally, no costs to the NATO alliance
05:30or no costs domestically, clearly this would embolden him to go further.
05:34But I think that sort of a united pushback and not just on leverage,
05:40but also on the level of narrative that would raise costs, again,
05:44domestically and internationally would probably help get to a ramp-off.
05:50Okay, so the strong-armed approach, a united pushback,
05:57it all sounds like we are going to get a showdown here in Davos.
06:04Well, you know, you've already seen some of that yesterday.
06:09I think if you listen carefully to the speech of Canadian Prime Minister Carney,
06:18it is very clear that the showdown has already happened.
06:23The world leaders are coming out and clearly stating that there is a rupture
06:28in the system that we were holding so dear of international rules,
06:33of norms, of collective prosperity and security.
06:36And I think we, you know, Greenland is clearly a trigger of this showdown,
06:45how this is going to play out when President Trump arrives with, you know,
06:52his speech, public statements and backdoor negotiations.
06:55I presume that there is likely going to be some sort of an agreement
07:02that will calm the tensions down.
07:05Okay, we will be watching this space closely.
07:08Maida Rouge, thank you very much for joining us today
07:10from the European Council on Foreign Relations.
07:13Pleasure. Thanks for having me.
07:14and thank you very much for joining us today.
07:31Thanks for joining us today.
07:33And we're going to see you again.
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