Speaking with FRANCE 24's Sharon Gaffney, Thomas Graham, Distinguished Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, says that the relationship between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin is based on a 'unique, sometimes strange affinity that president Trump appears to have for strongmen, president Putin in particular', adding that Trump has 'found it very difficult to translate it into hard policy that actually advances American interests'.
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00:04U.S. and Russian envoys meeting in Davos say they've been holding constructive talks
00:09on a possible future peace deal to end the war in Ukraine.
00:13It comes as Donald Trump's drive to acquire Greenland widens splits here in Europe.
00:18The row is being watched with glee in Moscow,
00:21even though the U.S. president's plans could have serious security ramifications for Moscow,
00:26which covets its own presence in the Arctic.
00:28Yinka Oytare takes a closer look at how relations between Russia and the United States are evolving under Trump.
00:38It's a moment that came to define their relationship.
00:42After a private two-hour meeting with only their interpreters present,
00:46Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin stepped out side by side at their 2018 Helsinki summit.
00:52What followed stunned Washington.
00:54The U.S. president broke with his own intelligence agencies,
00:57taking Putin at his word when he denied interfering in the 2016 election that brought Trump to power.
01:03I have great confidence in my intelligence people,
01:07but I will tell you that President Putin was extremely strong and powerful in his denial today.
01:15And what he did is an incredible offer.
01:17At the time, both the CIA and FBI had concluded Russia did interfere.
01:22The moment perhaps emblematic of Trump's unusually favorable view of the Russian leader,
01:28a leniency that at times has shown itself as outright praise.
01:31Trump's once said of Putin while Barack Obama was still in office,
01:35the Russian president gets an A for leadership.
01:37Putin has returned the compliments,
01:40describing his now U.S. counterpart as a very flamboyant and talented man
01:45during Trump's first presidential campaign.
01:49Let me tell you, Putin went through a hell of a lot with me.
01:52Trump's account of their relationship,
01:54raised again during a clash with the Ukrainian president Vladimir Zelensky,
01:57only reinforced perceptions of the pair's mysterious closeness.
02:01Trump has long expressed his fondness for strongmen,
02:05and that's exactly what he sees in Vladimir Putin.
02:08But those same strongman instincts have strained their relationship during Trump's second term.
02:13In April of 2025, Trump took to social media,
02:17publicly venting his frustration at Putin for continuing Russia's three-year war in Ukraine,
02:22urging him to stop as Trump attempted to broker a peace deal.
02:26Putin has since praised Trump's efforts.
02:28President Trump is making serious efforts to end this conflict.
02:33As I have said many times, he is, in my opinion, absolutely sincere.
02:39Since returning to office in January,
02:41Trump has spoken with Putin more than six times,
02:45likely more than any other world leader.
02:47A closeness some believe predates Trump's presidency.
02:50With long-standing speculation Trump has denied,
02:53the KGB once sought to recruit him during a 1987 visit to the Soviet Union.
02:59Others suggest Putin holds undisclosed leverage over the U.S. president.
03:03Whatever the truth,
03:04Trump has pursued a clear rapprochement with Putin since reclaiming the White House,
03:09at a time when Russia remains largely sidelined by the international community.
03:13Well, for more on how Washington has managed relations with Moscow during this first year of Donald Trump's second term,
03:21we're joined by Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
03:27Thanks so much, Thomas, for being with us on the program.
03:30You have a lot of experience in this area.
03:32You've taught courses on U.S.-Russian relations and Russian foreign policy.
03:37You're also senior director for Russia on the National Security Council staff.
03:42What do you make of Donald Trump's approach to and relationship with the Kremlin?
03:47Well, certainly it is a strange relationship.
03:52He does have a certain affinity for Putin that goes back many, many decades.
03:58But he's found it very difficult to translate it into hard policy that actually advances American interests.
04:04You know that President Trump came to office in January of last year hoping to build a closer relationship with Russia
04:13and hoping to end the Russia-Ukraine war in 24 hours, as he said, during the campaign.
04:20He thought that he would be able to do that because he had, as he said,
04:24a very close personal relationship with President Putin.
04:28Here we are a year later, and certainly the Russia-Ukraine conflict hasn't been ended.
04:35The desire to normalize relations with Russia has actually proceeded very, very slowly,
04:41in part because the continuing conflict in and around Ukraine is a serious impediment to normalization of relations.
04:49It puts severe limits on what President Trump can do because of domestic political considerations.
04:55And so what we see is a very mixed picture over the past year.
05:00An effort at route pressure moment that hasn't gone very far.
05:04An effort to end the conflict that hasn't reached fruition yet.
05:09All that said, President Trump, through his actions, through his words,
05:14has opened up perhaps the most serious set of negotiations over a possible settlement of the Ukraine crisis
05:20over the past couple of months.
05:22But on one hand, Trump claims to, for example, fear the threat that Russia poses to U.S. security
05:28when it comes to Greenland.
05:30On the other hand, he's repeatedly taken Vladimir Putin's side when it comes to the situation in Ukraine.
05:36He's now invited him to join his so-called Board of Peace for Gaza.
05:40How do you square all of this?
05:42There seems to be a real lack of consistency in his approach,
05:46not just to Russia, but when he is on the international stage.
05:50Well, certainly, look, nobody has accused President Trump of consistency.
05:55What we all say is he is unpredictable.
05:58And he waxes hot and cold on President Putin.
06:02He still wants to build a close relationship with Russia.
06:06He thinks that is good for security reasons.
06:10He thinks that's good for commercial reasons.
06:12And so he's always been hesitant to go too far out of fear that he might alienate Putin.
06:19Strangely enough, we see the same thing on President Putin's side.
06:23He knows that Trump is unpredictable.
06:26And at times when you expect him to push back very hard against the United States,
06:32say with the bombing of Iran in the summer of last year,
06:36or the recent events surrounding Venezuela, Putin has remained silent,
06:41in part because he's concerned that if he pushes back too hard, he would alienate Putin.
06:46So you've got a strange relationship between the two.
06:49They want to normalize relationships.
06:51They know that each side is taking steps that run contrary to their interests.
06:56But they never push as hard as they would in other circumstances,
06:59because they still hold out hope for this rapprochement.
07:03And what would actually normalizing relations with Russia actually entail?
07:07What would it look like?
07:08What kind of significance would that have for Europe?
07:13This is an interesting question, in part because while the presidents have talked about normalization,
07:20they never laid out in detail what exactly that would mean.
07:24I think it's clear that at the top of the list of President Trump lies what we might call strategic commercial relations,
07:34deals in the energy sector, perhaps something in space.
07:38President Trump is always interested in fostering good commercial relations.
07:44It would also mean what President Trump has called strategic stability,
07:48some agreement on how we're going to manage our strategic arsenals,
07:52our nuclear weapons going forward.
07:55But I think many other people would see normalization of relations
07:59as including an equitable settlement of the Ukraine conflict,
08:05a restructuring of European security that protects Ukrainian interests,
08:11European interests, provides sufficient deterrence against possible Russian challenges in the future.
08:18Those things are extremely important.
08:20But again, President Trump hasn't talked about these in detail.
08:24Neither has his administration.
08:27And given the urgency of dealing with the war in Ukraine,
08:30is it possible right now to think of a longer-term strategy
08:34when it comes to how the U.S. should be dealing with Russia?
08:37What would your advice be, for example, if you were still associated with the National Security Council?
08:43Well, I think we need to have two prongs.
08:46I mean, clearly, we need to be focused on bringing the conflict to an end.
08:52And the administration needs to set up a serious set of negotiations with Moscow,
08:59as well as with our Ukrainian partners and our European allies.
09:04But that doesn't preclude thinking about how we might deal with Russia over the long term.
09:10Russia isn't going to go away.
09:12It's going to continue to be a rival of the United States.
09:15It still has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world.
09:19And so we're going to have to manage very carefully this relationship with Russia into the future.
09:25I think if we begin to think clearly about how we would do that over time,
09:29it also helps us begin to see what we need to accomplish out of a Ukrainian settlement.
09:35What we do in Ukraine, the way this conflict is settled, is going to have consequences for European security.
09:42It's going to have broader consequences for U.S.-Russian relations.
09:45And without some sort of vision of how we're going to manage that relationship going forward,
09:51it makes it more difficult to devise strategies that will both deal with our immediate problems and prepare us for the longer term.
09:59And it's been very difficult to predict how Donald Trump might act on any particular issue.
10:06But do you think that his policies, when it comes to Russia, they might be more considered than they appear at first hand, more thought out?
10:14And what do you make of the suggestion?
10:16We saw it in Yinka's report before we came to you that Vladimir Putin might have some kind of leverage over Donald Trump.
10:24Well, first, I tend to discount the notion that President Putin has some leverage over President Trump.
10:33If he did, it's hard to see how it has really helped Russia advance its own national interest.
10:40It hasn't produced a settlement on Ukraine that is absolutely in Russia's favor.
10:47It hasn't inclined President Trump to lean more heavily on Ukraine.
10:52It hasn't inclined Trump, for example, to walk away from these negotiations.
11:00So I tend to discount that he has any serious leverage over President Trump.
11:07The relationship between the two men is based on, as I already said, a unique, sometimes strange affinity that President Trump appears to have for strongmen, President Putin in particular.
11:22Where this is going to go?
11:24Very difficult to say at this point.
11:27You know, President Trump does want to normalize relations, as I've said.
11:31But I've seen very little from what he has said in public.
11:35I've heard very little from the conversations that I have had with senior officials in Washington as to what that relationship would look like in concrete terms going forward.
11:47Thomas, thanks so much for that insight and that analysis.
11:51Fascinating conversation.
11:52We do appreciate your time on the program.
11:54That is Thomas Graham, Distinguished Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
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