00:00Let's stick with AI. The next test on deck with NVIDIA earnings after the closing bow. Jay Goldberg of Seaport
00:05Global remaining the sole sell on the stock writing we think NVIDIA will meet expectations. It is hard to see
00:11them delivering much upside. Jay joins us now for more. Jay welcome to the show. Still the big bear based
00:17on the recommendation. Let's get into it. What's going to cap the upside from here. I think they're limited on
00:22capacity. Right. We know that the industry is constrained across semiconductors. The big problem for NVIDIA is what the capacity
00:29they can get out of TSMC both in manufacturing and packaging and I think that sort of caps their upside
00:36until maybe later this year when we get a little bit more capacity out of TSMC. Well Jay beyond next
00:40year over the next several years is this going to remain an issue is it something we can look through
00:44at the moment. I think we're we're in a somewhat historic peak of capacity constraints right now for across semiconductors
00:54right every sort of nook and cranny you look into in the industry things we haven't thought about in years
00:59like
00:59substrates and and and photorescent chemicals everything is in shortage right now and that that's going to last some of
01:06those are going to last through the year memory looks like it's going to be constrained through the year but
01:11semiconductors are cyclical and eventually things will ease. I probably next year but who knows when that's going to be.
01:17Well Jay that's the big question because you are the sole sell. There's four holes the 78 bytes on this
01:22name. What are the 78 getting wrong. I think that the difficulty
01:27NVIDIA has is it's gotten so big and for it to keep momentum going. The deals that we're looking at
01:35getting these data centers built to the scale that is going to be sufficient for their numbers. That's going to
01:41be challenging right we're already sort of starting to see the stress on the capital market side. It's getting harder
01:47and harder to fund these these data centers and the data centers are just going to get bigger and bigger
01:51and NVIDIA needs that to keep the numbers going. And so I think that it's just getting harder and harder
01:56for NVIDIA to sell.
01:57...
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