00:00On January 3rd, a major strategic region was retaken by Saudi-backed Yemeni government
00:05forces from a UAE-backed armed separatist group.
00:10The move is a seismic development in a decade-long civil war that has essentially become a proxy
00:15war between the two Gulf superpowers.
00:19But why are the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia at odds over the future of Yemen?
00:24And what does it mean for the relationship of the United States' close allies?
00:28Here's everything you need to know.
00:30In early December of 2025, the UAE-backed separatist group called the Southern Transitional Council
00:36or STC suddenly and swiftly seized swaths of territory from Saudi-backed government forces
00:43in a full-scale military operation.
00:46STC forces pushed east from the major city of Aden to seize territory along Saudi Arabia's
00:51border such as the provinces of Hadramut and Ma'ra.
00:56In all, it became the most significant amount of land to change hands since 2022 in the
01:00country.
01:02And the STC's goal of establishing a southern state seemed as if it was close to coming
01:06to fruition.
01:07On December 30th, however, Saudi Arabia struck a UAE shipment as it arrived in the port of
01:12Mukalla.
01:14According to Saudi Arabia, the shipment included weapons to be used by the STC, although the
01:19UAE has denied this.
01:21On January 2nd, the Saudi-backed government forces would begin to take back control of
01:25the strategically important Hadramut and Ma'ra provinces in the east.
01:29And on January 3rd, the UAE announced it had withdrawn its troops under a Saudi deadline.
01:35The current state of Yemen is a product of a few key events.
01:39Most notably, in 2014, Iran-backed Houthis, who currently maintain control in the north
01:44of Yemen, seized the capital of Sana'a.
01:47Today, the Houthis are still the largest and most cohesive military force in Yemen, and
01:52are estimated to control territory where between 60% to 65% of Yemenis live.
01:58Saudi Arabia and UAE were actually once aligned in the conflict, and joined forces to intervene
02:03against the Iran-backed group in 2015 in support of Yemen's internationally recognized government.
02:10The result was that the country was split into two rival zones of control.
02:15For Saudi Arabia, its reasons for intervention are pretty straightforward.
02:19It shares 812 miles of a southern border with Yemen, has long been regional rivals with
02:24Tehran, and the presence of an Iranian-backed rebel group directly to its south is seen as
02:29a serious threat.
02:31It would also much prefer a unified and stable Yemen.
02:34The Emirates' intervention would also be to counter the Houthis, but its reasons for
02:38supporting the STC are less clear.
02:41Its interests have, however, diverged over the years from its supposed ally, Saudi Arabia,
02:46on critical issues ranging from oil policies to geopolitics, and the countries have acted against
02:52one another economically in recent years.
02:55Notably in 2021, Saudi Arabia pressured international businesses to move regional headquarters from
03:01Dubai, UAE, to their own capital of Riyadh, or risk losing government contracts.
03:07They also support two different sides of the civil war in Sudan, with the UAE backing the
03:12paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, and Saudi Arabia backing the Sudanese armed
03:18forces who have been engaged in a brutal conflict themselves.
03:22Analysts have also theorized that the UAE's motivations lie in securing shipping lanes
03:27in the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait and Gulf of Aden, as well as its antipathy of political
03:33Islam.
03:34In 2017, the UAE helped establish the STC in Yemen, which the Emirates trained and equipped.
03:40The group has ostensibly been part of the Saudi-led coalition for some years, however the faction's
03:46secessionist ideology and hopes to create an independent state of South Arabia would soon
03:51become evident.
03:53In April of 2020, the STC declared that it would establish self-rule in the South, which
03:58had previously been an independent state, before its unification with the North in 1990.
04:03The UAE-backed group then went on to seize control of the island of Socotra, as well as
04:08all key institutions of the major city of Aden.
04:12After an agreement was approved in July of 2020, the STC reversed its self-rule declaration,
04:18paving the way for a new unity government that included STC members later that December.
04:23In 2022, a Saudi-Arabian-backed Presidential Leadership Council, or PLC, was created to unify
04:30anti-Houthi forces, but the council has been paralyzed by the divisions it was meant to solve.
04:36After years of fruitless attempts to bring the civil war to an end, tensions finally culminated
04:41in December 2025 and fractured the coalition, which had been fighting the Houthi forces.
04:48After weeks of fighting on January 2nd, the internationally recognized government of Yemen
04:53asked Saudi Arabia to host a forum to resolve the Southern issue.
04:58Riyadh agreed and extended invitations to Southern factions.
05:02The STC had welcomed the call for dialogue, however its leader, Idurus al-Zubaydi, failed
05:08to board a plane set to take him to Riyadh and fled instead to an unknown destination,
05:13the Saudi-backed coalition said on Wednesday.
05:17The Saudi-backed Presidential Council has since stripped Zubaydi of his membership and referred
05:22him to the public prosecutor on charges, including high treason, according to state news agencies.
Comments