00:00Effecto ng tension sa pagitan ng America at Venezuela sa presyo ng produktong petrolyo,
00:06ating pag-uusapan kasama si Oil Industry Management Bureau Director Rino Abad ng Department of Energy.
00:13Director Abad, magandang tanghali po at Happy New Year, Sir.
00:18Magandang tanghali po sa inyong programa sa ating mga kababayan.
00:22Sir, una sa lahat, paano po maapektuhan ng tension sa pagitan po ng US at Venezuela
00:28ang supply po ng langis at sa lokal na presyo ng petrolyo dito sa ating bansa?
00:36Tingnan lang po muna natin ano ba yung volume na ini-export ng Venezuela sa global market.
00:44Before the sanction, ano, yung mahigpit na sanction, matagal na hong nasa sanction ang Venezuela,
00:53pero ang ini-export nila around November siguro, September, November,
00:57ay umabot ho ng mga 1 million barrels per day.
01:01So, yan ho ay less than 1% ng global supply.
01:06So, makakaapekto ba yan?
01:11Isa ba yung mabigat na supply disruption?
01:15Hindi ho.
01:16At pangalawang aspeto, sino ho ba ang bumibili lang ho dyan?
01:22Ang bumibili ho nyan ay almost China lang lahat.
01:29So, in short, ang China ay gumagamit ng oil around 17, 16 to 17 million barrels of oil per day.
01:40Madali ho nila, isang aspeto ho nila na siguraduhin siguro na bumili ng kapalit na 1 million barrels per day of oil sa ibang supplier.
01:55At dahil ang global supply ay less than 1% lang ho yung 1 million na yan,
02:02hindi ho yan makukonsidera na major oil disruption.
02:09So, hindi ho, in short, mararamdaman yung pagkawalaan yan.
02:14Ang siguro at most ang magiging effect kung meron man
02:20ay yung temporary na pag-increase because of speculation.
02:25Fundamentally, sabi ko, hindi ho yan mararamdaman ang pagkawalaan yan.
02:32Pero dahil may speculative nature yung price,
02:36baka mag-increase lang ang price temporarily.
02:40But since hindi yun fundamental ang kanyang disruption na effect,
02:45baka hindi ho talaga maka-
02:47wala ho talagang major impact ito sa global market.
02:53At lalo na po sa Pilipinas dahil hindi ho tayo nag-i-import sa Venezuela.
03:01Gaano katagal po tumatagal itong speculation
03:04at magta-translate po ba ito sa...
03:08Sabi nyo po, hindi nas mararamdaman ang epekto.
03:12Pero sa global prices po,
03:16kung patuloy po itong uncertainty speculation,
03:20gaano po katagal inaasahan na magiging impact nito?
03:24Well, ang apektado ho, as sinasabi natin, yung China.
03:27Kasi siya ho yung mawawalan.
03:30So, ang China naman ay talaki ho ng demand yan,
03:3316 to 17 million barrels per day.
03:36I know that it's a major negotiating country.
03:42Major buyer.
03:44I think if they look for another supplier,
03:49hindi ho pwedeng i-leverage ng supplier kung ang kaharap mo China,
03:53na ganyan ang demand.
03:54At sasabihin mo, ah, hindi.
03:56Mamahalin ko yung benta sa'yo dahil bigla kang nangailan.
04:01Ang laki ho ng China.
04:03So, hindi ho, you have to face a negotiating partner with that demand.
04:11Malaki ho ang demand.
04:12So, I think when you look at the situation,
04:16China,
04:17hindi ho pwedeng i-leverage against kay China
04:19yung ganyang volume lang kalaki.
04:22So, again, kung hindi ho ganun ang magiging opportunistic treatment against China,
04:33at tayo naman nag-i-import kay China,
04:36eh, hindi ho matatranslate sa atin yung effect na yan.
04:41In other words, hindi ho, sorry for the lack of word,
04:44hindi po pwedeng i-bully si China dahil lang yan sa ganyang volume.
04:48At, ah, magkakaroon ng adverse impact doon sa price na usual na nakukuha ni China
04:58sa kanyang sourcing ng oil.
05:01Siya ho ang affected, eh.
05:02So, pag hindi ho yan affected si China masyado,
05:05or wala din talagang impact kay China,
05:09eh, tayo, nag-i-import tayo kay China,
05:10hindi rin ho matatranslate sa atin yan.
05:12So, ah, ganun lang ho talaga ang impact ni Venezuela.
05:17Very limited, ah, napakaliit ho ng volume na yan sa global supply.
05:23At hindi ho pwedeng, ah, basta-basta sabihin na maapektuhan ng ganun kagrabi si China,
05:30which is the buyer of the Venezuelan oil.
05:34Mm-hmm.
05:35Director Rino, bakit po sa tuwing meron pong geopolitical tensions
05:40gaya po niyang US-Venezuela, yung Ukraine-Russia,
05:45pati po tensions sa Middle East, eh,
05:47mas mabilis po tumaas yung presyo ng diesel at kerosene
05:52kumpara po sa gasolina?
05:54Ah, well, ah, yan ho ang, well, behavior na ho yan sa, sa deregulated regime ho.
06:05Ah, at yan ho, yan ho naman ay, ah, wala hong control, no, ang sino man.
06:12Ah, dyan ho, nangyayari yan sa behavior ng buyer and seller.
06:18So, hindi ho natin ho, ah, ako ang nanonotice ko, no,
06:23ah, madaling ma-emphasize kasi ang bad news, no,
06:27ang bad sentiment sa market kesa sa magandang balita.
06:32Ah, for example, ah, naglabas ho nung early part ng December
06:37ang, nang report ang International Energy Agency
06:41na magkakaroon ho ng oversupply ng oil
06:45for the first quarter of 2026.
06:48Ah, sinuportan ho yan ng OPEC
06:52So, that becomes now confirmed
06:55dahil sumuporta ho ang OPEC
06:57at nagsabi ang OPEC na
06:58dahil magkakaroon ng oversupply,
07:01ayaw na mag-increase ng supply
07:05sa 2026.
07:07So, naramdaman ho natin yan
07:09wala ho nga anong hype up
07:12sa ganyang mga reports
07:14kasi hindi ho favorable, no,
07:18masabi natin,
07:19hindi favorable dun sa mga trader ng oil
07:22kasi bababa ang price.
07:24At naramdaman ho natin na
07:26unti-unting nag-estabilize
07:28at nagbaba ng price nitong December.
07:30At, ah, didiretso na sana yan,
07:33inaasahan natin na
07:34maganda ang presyo sa first quarter.
07:36If not, ah,
07:40hindi masyadong maapektuhan
07:43nitong Venezuela.
07:44Ito lang kasi ang naging spoiler.
07:46So, yun lang ang masabi natin.
07:48Behavioral ho yan
07:49sa nangyayari sa merkado.
07:52At, ah,
07:53almost usually
07:54na-emphasize yung bad news
07:56kesa sa good news.
07:57So,
07:59gagawin kung good news
08:00yung pagkakaroon ng oversupply.
08:03Pero nararamdaman ho natin
08:05pa konti-konti
08:06at, ah,
08:06naramdaman natin yan
08:07for this month.
08:09At, ah,
08:10inaasahan ho natin sana
08:11didiretso pa next year.
08:13Ah, this year,
08:14sorry.
08:15Ah,
08:16yun nga lang,
08:17ito dumating yung bad news
08:19dito kay Venezuela
08:20na hindi na ilabas
08:22yung kanilang
08:231 million barrels per day
08:25na export of oil.
08:28Director Rino,
08:29sakali lang pong
08:30magkaroon po
08:31ng epekto
08:32itong sitwasyon
08:34o tensyon
08:35sa pagitan ng
08:36US at Venezuela
08:37sa ating bansa.
08:38Although, sabi nyo,
08:39wala nga pong
08:40foreseeable impact so far.
08:43Meron po bang
08:43nakahandang hakbang
08:44yung Department of Energy
08:46para po
08:47makosyon
08:48yung ating bansa
08:49sa impact na ito
08:50kung sakali lang pong
08:51magkaroon?
08:53Well,
08:53limited tayo
08:55when you talk about
08:56price,
08:56mitigation
08:57dahil unang-una
08:59ang government
09:01natin
09:01wala hong
09:02direct control
09:03sa price.
09:05The regulated regime
09:06ang batas natin
09:07sa oil.
09:08but ito naman
09:12mga private
09:14oil companies
09:15palagi
09:16naging implement
09:17ng
09:18discount.
09:20Itong mga
09:21discount promo
09:22binibigay
09:24ito
09:25both sa
09:25public transport
09:26at sa private
09:27motorist.
09:29tuloy-tuloy
09:30yan
09:31at kailangan
09:33at kailangan lang
09:33ituloy
09:33ng ating mga
09:34kababayan
09:35yung
09:35paghahanap
09:37ng mga
09:37gasoline station
09:39na palaging
09:40may discount
09:41promo.
09:41ako pag nakadaan
09:42ako sa
09:43kalsada
09:44may nakikita
09:45talaga
09:45akong mga
09:46discount
09:47promo na yan
09:47at yun
09:49ang inaasahan
09:50natin
09:50na ating mga
09:51kababayan
09:51ay tiping na nila
09:52yung mga
09:53ganyang promo
09:53para
09:54ma-avail
09:55ho yan
09:55direct
09:57ang bawas
09:57yan
09:58sa
09:58bawat
09:59availment
10:00mo
10:01ng
10:01fuel
10:01at the
10:02gasoline
10:03station
10:03level
10:04yan.
10:05Yung
10:05government
10:06side
10:06may subsidy
10:07tayo
10:08tuloy-tuloy
10:08ito
10:09for how
10:09many years
10:10since
10:102023
10:1222
10:13up to
10:13now
10:14siguro
10:14meron
10:16fuel
10:17subsidy
10:18ang
10:18dalawang
10:19ahensya
10:19ng
10:19government
10:20limited
10:21pero
10:23nabigay po
10:23ito
10:24through
10:24general
10:25appropriations
10:25act
10:26meron
10:26ho
10:27ang
10:27LTFRB
10:28ito yung
10:29fuel
10:30subsidy
10:30nila
10:30sa public
10:31transport
10:32meron
10:33ho
10:33yung
10:34department
10:34of
10:34agriculture
10:35subsidy
10:36din
10:36ho
10:37yan
10:37sa
10:37farmers
10:38and
10:38fishermen
10:38fuel
10:39subsidy
10:39din
10:40yan
10:40yun
10:41nga
10:42lang
10:42kailangan
10:42itong
10:43i-distribute
10:44at
10:45kailangan
10:47ng trigger
10:48na
10:4880
10:48US
10:49dollar
10:49Dubai
10:50crude
10:50pag
10:51umabot
10:52tayo
10:52dun
10:52average
10:54for
10:54one
10:54month
10:55i-release
10:57po
10:57yung
10:57funds
10:58ng
10:58DBM
10:59for
10:59distribution
11:00sa
11:00mga
11:01beneficiary
11:02yun
11:03nga
11:03lang
11:04ang
11:04ating
11:04Dubai
11:05crude
11:05ngayon
11:05January
11:06first
11:09week
11:09of
11:09January
11:09is
11:10averaging
11:11only
11:11at
11:1160
11:12US
11:13dollar
11:13per
11:13barrel
11:14ang
11:14Dubai
11:14crude
11:14so
11:15malayo
11:15pa
11:16yan
11:16sa
11:16trigger
11:17na
11:1780
11:17US
11:18dollar
11:18per
11:18barrel
11:19much
11:20less
11:20yung
11:21one
11:21month
11:21average
11:22so
11:22hindi
11:23pa
11:23ho
11:24matrigger
11:25yung
11:25release
11:25for
11:26the
11:262026
11:27pero
11:28I
11:28know
11:28that
11:29the
11:2924
11:2925
11:312024
11:322025
11:32na
11:33trigger
11:34na
11:34ho
11:34yun
11:34so
11:35hindi
11:37hindi
11:37hindi
11:37ko
11:37lang
11:37masabi
11:38anong
11:38update
11:39from
11:39LTFRB
11:40at
11:40Department
11:41of Agriculture
11:42pero
11:42dapat
11:43na
11:43i-distribute
11:44na ho
11:44ang mga
11:44fuel
11:44subsidy
11:45na yan
11:45sa mga
11:46nakaraang
11:47taon
11:48na yan
11:48yung
11:5020
11:5125
11:52higit
11:5220
11:53pesos
11:53po
11:53kada
11:54litro
11:56po
11:56yung
11:56pagtaas
11:57sa presyo
11:58ng ating
11:58crude
11:59masasabi
12:00po ba
12:00natin
12:01na
12:01handa
12:02po
12:02ang
12:02DOE
12:03na
12:04sa
12:05posibleng
12:06pagtaas
12:06po
12:06ng presyo
12:07ngayong
12:0820
12:0926
12:09yung
12:12sinasabing
12:13yung
12:1320
12:13pesos
12:14gusto
12:14namin
12:15i-address
12:15yan
12:15ang
12:1720
12:17pesos
12:17na
12:18increase
12:18yan
12:19yung
12:19suggested
12:21increases
12:22na pinopronounce
12:23ng mga
12:23oil
12:23companies
12:24alam
12:25natin
12:26pagdating
12:26sa gasoline
12:27station
12:27level
12:28may
12:28competition
12:29kaya
12:30if you
12:31notice
12:31ang
12:31average
12:32price
12:33pa rin
12:33natin
12:34ngayon
12:35sa
12:35ating
12:36petroleum
12:37products
12:37ang
12:37common
12:38pump
12:38price
12:38natin
12:39sa
12:39gasolina
12:41for example
12:42around
12:4354
12:43to
12:4455
12:45pesos
12:45ang
12:46diesel
12:46nasa
12:4756
12:47to
12:4757
12:48pesos
12:49so
12:50if
12:50you
12:51notice
12:51kung
12:51totoo
12:52talaga
12:52na
12:52in
12:52implement
12:53straightforward
12:53ng mga
12:54gasoline
12:54station
12:55na to
12:55yung
12:5620
12:56pesos
12:56na yan
12:57para bang
12:57sinasabi
12:58na
12:58ang
12:59gasolina
12:59na yan
12:5955
13:00minus
13:0120
13:01nang
13:03galing
13:03ba
13:04tayo
13:04nung
13:0435
13:05pesos
13:06nung
13:06nakaraang
13:07taon
13:07hindi
13:08ho
13:08yan
13:09ganyan
13:09so
13:10hindi
13:10it's
13:10not
13:10a
13:11direct
13:11addition
13:12so
13:13pinopronounce
13:15yan
13:15ng mga
13:15oil
13:15companies
13:16pero
13:17hindi
13:17ho
13:18yan
13:18nangyayari
13:18sa
13:19ground
13:20kasi
13:20may
13:21competition
13:21pa rin
13:22ho
13:22nanonotise
13:22namin
13:23kung
13:23nagsimula
13:24tayo
13:25at
13:2550
13:25dapat
13:26ang
13:26gasolina
13:27nung
13:27nakarang taon
13:28dapat
13:28ang
13:29gasolina
13:29by
13:29end
13:29of
13:30this
13:30year
13:30of
13:30last
13:31year
13:31December
13:32of
13:32last
13:33year
13:33nasa
13:3370
13:34to
13:3480
13:34pesos
13:35na
13:35dapat
13:35kung
13:36dinagdag
13:36yung
13:3720
13:38pesos
13:38kasi
13:39nasa
13:3950
13:39na
13:39rin
13:39tayo
13:40magsimula
13:40yung
13:41ano
13:41eh
13:41magsimula
13:42ang taon
13:42last
13:43year
13:43eh
13:43sa
13:44gasolina
13:44eh
13:44pero
13:45if you
13:46notice
13:46ano ba
13:47yung
13:47naging
13:48ending
13:48nung
13:49presyo
13:50ng
13:50gasolina
13:50per
13:51liter
13:51nasa
13:5155
13:52ngayon
13:52so
13:54parang
13:54hindi
13:54ka
13:55panipaniwala
13:55na
13:56in
13:56implement
13:57ng
13:57mga
13:57gasolinahan
13:58all
14:00throughout
14:01yung
14:0220
14:02pesos
14:02parang
14:03hindi
14:03ka
14:03panipaniwala
14:04kaya
14:04the
14:05competition
14:06works
14:07on the
14:08ground
14:08kahit
14:09sabihin
14:09ni
14:09oil
14:09company
14:10mag
14:10i-increase
14:10kami
14:11ng
14:1120
14:11pesos
14:12eh
14:12yung
14:13mga
14:13gasolinahan
14:13hindi
14:14naman
14:14nila
14:15kayang
14:15implement
14:16all
14:16throughout
14:16yun
14:17kasi
14:17yung
14:17katabi
14:17nila
14:18ayaw
14:18mag
14:18implement
14:19so
14:19ayaw
14:19ko
14:19na
14:19rin
14:19mag
14:20implement
14:20kasi
14:20walang
14:21bibili
14:21sa
14:21akin
14:22so
14:22nanonotish
14:23namin
14:23sa
14:23market
14:24sa
14:24ground
14:24hindi
14:25ganun
14:26ang
14:26nangyayari
14:27sa
14:27presyuhan
14:28stabilized
14:29so
14:29ang presyo
14:30doon
14:31and
14:31there is
14:32the
14:32element
14:33of
14:33competition
14:33kaya
14:34na-maintain
14:35yung
14:35relatively
14:36mababang
14:37price
14:37despite
14:38itong
14:39mga
14:39pronouncement
14:41ng mga
14:41mother oil
14:42companies
14:42So
14:44nakakatulong
14:45po pala
14:46talaga
14:46yung
14:46competition
14:47para
14:48hindi
14:48po
14:48itaas
14:49din
14:50yung
14:50presyo
14:51sa mga
14:52pump
14:52pero
14:53natitiyak
14:54po ba
14:55o tinitiyak
14:56po
14:56patuloy
14:56na tinitiyak
14:57ng
14:57DOE
14:58na
14:59sakali
15:00magsabi
15:00ang isang
15:01oil company
15:01na magtataas
15:02sila
15:02ng presyo
15:03ay
15:03makatarungan
15:05ito
15:05at
15:05hindi
15:06magiging
15:06abusado
15:08sa kanilang
15:09pagturing
15:09po
15:09ng
15:10price
15:10adjustment
15:11Well
15:12if you look
15:14at the
15:14figures
15:15supposedly
15:16kung nagsimula
15:17tayo
15:17din at
15:1850
15:18nung
15:18nakaraang
15:19taon
15:19january
15:20nung
15:20nakaraang
15:20taon
15:21kung
15:21dinagdag
15:22yung
15:2220
15:23peso
15:24nasa
15:2470
15:24na
15:25ngayon
15:25nasa
15:2550
15:26lang
15:26tayo
15:26I think
15:27I think
15:29ang
15:29pinaka
15:30assurance
15:30talaga
15:31sir
15:31ng
15:31when you
15:33talk
15:33about
15:33price
15:34kasi
15:34walang
15:34control
15:35ang
15:35government
15:36sa
15:36price
15:36is
15:37really
15:37the
15:37competition
15:38on
15:38the
15:39ground
15:39pag
15:40healthy
15:41ang
15:41competition
15:42hindi
15:43kontrolado
15:45ang
15:46mga
15:46gasoline
15:47station
15:47all
15:47throughout
15:48na
15:49network
15:49ng
15:49gasoline
15:50station
15:50at
15:51naobserve
15:52natin
15:52hindi
15:52pare-pareho
15:53ang
15:53price
15:53at
15:54hindi
15:54ultimately
15:55sumusunod
15:56kaagad
15:56dun sa
15:57ganyang
15:58kalaking
15:58increase
15:58for the
15:59whole
15:59year
15:59na
15:59umabot
16:00ng
16:0020
16:01pesos
16:01as
16:02tabulated
16:02sa
16:03report
16:03ay
16:05hindi
16:05yun po
16:06ang
16:06magiging
16:07assurance
16:07na
16:08ang
16:09presyo
16:09ay
16:10nagre-react
16:11according
16:11dun sa
16:12competition
16:12kung meron
16:13ang isang
16:14lugar
16:14so that
16:15is the
16:15the
16:16the
16:17regulated
16:17regime
16:18coupled
16:20with the
16:21competition
16:21so that
16:22that assures
16:23the public
16:23na competitive
16:24ang price
16:25so there's
16:26no reasonable
16:26price but
16:27the only
16:28reasonable
16:28price is
16:29the
16:29competitive
16:30price
16:30sa
16:31lugar
16:31kung
16:32ano
16:32yung
16:33sitwasyon
16:33ng
16:33lugar
16:33na yun
16:34bilang
16:35panghuli
16:36na
16:36lamang
16:37po
16:37director
16:37rino
16:38mensahe
16:38nyo
16:38na
16:39lamang
16:39po
16:39sa
16:39ating
16:39mga
16:40consumer
16:40particularly
16:41po
16:42sa
16:42ating
16:42mga
16:42puv
16:44driver
16:45na may
16:45mga
16:45pangamba
16:46po
16:46sa
16:47presyo
16:48po
16:48ng
16:48ating
16:49crudo
16:49well
16:51ang
16:52mga
16:52sa
16:53puv
16:53no
16:54araw-araw
16:54yan
16:55na kailangan
16:56nilang
16:56fuel
16:56I think
16:57malaking
16:58bagay
16:58talaga
16:59na
17:01i-avail
17:01yung
17:02mga
17:02promo
17:03discount
17:03ng mga
17:04oil
17:04companies
17:05kasi
17:06agaran
17:06ang
17:06effect
17:07sa
17:07kanila
17:07dahil
17:08araw-araw
17:08lalo
17:09na yung
17:09mga
17:09jeepney
17:10driver
17:10at
17:10bus
17:11driver
17:12natin
17:13araw-araw
17:13ang
17:14kanilang
17:15fuel
17:16requirement
17:17so
17:17importante
17:19i-avail
17:20nila
17:201 to
17:224 pesos
17:22per
17:23liter
17:24na
17:24discount
17:25malaking
17:26bagay
17:26yan
17:26at
17:27of course
17:28sabihin
17:29na lang
17:30natin
17:30huwag
17:30nila
17:31pabayaan
17:31yung
17:31pag-a-avail
17:32naman
17:33dun sa
17:34mga
17:34fuel
17:35subsidy
17:35alam
17:36namin
17:37na
17:37sa report
17:37na
17:38nag-distribute
17:39ang
17:39LTFRB
17:40at
17:40Department
17:41of
17:41Agriculture
17:42for the
17:43previous
17:43years
17:44hindi pa
17:45nila
17:45natanggap
17:46mukhang
17:46kailangan
17:47makausap
17:48ang
17:48mga
17:49agencies
17:49na
17:49to
17:49para
17:50makuha
17:51na
17:51nila
17:51yung
17:51subsidy
17:52na
17:52yan
17:52nakalaan
17:53ang
17:53budget
17:54na
17:54yan
17:54assured
17:55yung
17:55budget
17:56na
17:56dahil
17:57approved
17:57yan
17:58through
17:58the
17:59General
17:59Appropriations
18:00Act
18:00so
18:01wag
18:01hayaan
18:02na
18:02hindi
18:02nila
18:02makuha
18:03yan
18:03at
18:04marirevert
18:05po
18:05sayang
18:05naman
18:06ang
18:06fund
18:06marirevert
18:07po
18:07ang
18:07fund
18:08na
18:08yan
18:08balik
18:09sa
18:09treasury
18:09so
18:10dapat
18:10ma-avail
18:11yan
18:11ng
18:12ating
18:12mga
18:12kababayan
18:12Alright
18:14maraming
18:15salamat
18:16oras
18:16Oil
18:17Industry
18:17Management
18:18Bureau
18:18Director
18:19Rino
18:20Abad
18:20ng
18:21Department
18:21of
18:21Energy
18:22Thank
18:23you
18:23Sir
18:23Thank
18:24you
18:24po
18:25Thank
18:25you
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