00:00What is the effect of the current tension on the oil industry in the oil industry industry in the Department
00:10of Energy?
00:10Director Abad, thank you so much. Welcome to the new Philippines.
00:15Thank you so much for your program and our families.
00:20Sir, the current tension on the Middle East,
00:23what is the current attack at the reports of market disruptions in the Middle East?
00:28Ano po ang magiging epekto nito sa presyo ng krudo sa world market,
00:32pati na rin po yung epekto nito sa domestic price ng gasolina at diesel dito sa ating bansa?
00:39Well, sa nangyaring atake ngayon,
00:42ang Iran naman ho ay nagsusupply ho yan ng around 1.71 million barrels of oil per day.
00:51That is around 1.61% ng global supply.
00:55So, kung Iran ang pag-uusapan,
00:58hindi ho masyadong nakakataranta yung kanyang effect
01:03kung magkaroon man ng disruption ang oil export ng Iran.
01:10Maliit lang ho ito.
01:11Kaya lang, dahil sa nangyaring ang gulo dun sa Middle East,
01:15especially ang pinag-uusapan ay yung Strait of Hormos,
01:20kasama na ho dyan ang other producing Middle East countries.
01:25Tama ho yung mga nasasabi na baka umabot to ng around 16 to 17 million barrels of oil per day
01:35ang nakataya ho dyan sakaling magkaroon ng disruption,
01:42temporary closure yung Strait of Hormos.
01:45So, dalawang aspeto po yung dinidescribe natin.
01:48Kung Iran lang ho, hindi ho natin masyadong mararamdaman.
01:52Pero kung ang Middle East producing countries ang apektado
01:57dahil sa gulo dyan sa may Strait of Hormos,
02:00malaki ho yan, around 16 to 17% of the global supply.
02:05So, doon ho tayo sa Iran lang.
02:08Nanotice ho natin yung attack noong February 28.
02:11That is in the middle of the adjustment period last week, no?
02:15Yung trading prices last week.
02:18Umingkris man, bagamat umingkris siya,
02:22hindi naman ho big time, no?
02:24Hindi malakihan.
02:25So, ang naging adjustment ho for this week,
02:28actually, mangyayari yan Tuesday o bukas this week,
02:32ay hindi ho kalakihan
02:35at hindi naman ho masabi na
02:38hindi na ito kasama dun sa nangyaring atake.
02:41Kasi nangyaring ang atake noong February 28.
02:44Supposed to be ang movement ng price.
02:47Dapat ngayon na natin mararamdaman.
02:50Pero, hindi rin ho tayo titigil sa monitoring
02:54kasi ang hihintayin ho natin
02:57baka ho next week at the next next week pa
03:01eh, inaasahan ho natin na mayroon pa rin ho
03:05tuloy-tuloy na pag-increase.
03:07Ang sana, hindi ho mangyari,
03:10kapareho lang ho sana ngayong week,
03:12yung normal lang na pag-increase
03:16consistent with the ongoing volatility ng price
03:21dito sa Middle East conflict
03:24at hindi sana maging big time, no?
03:27Pag big time ang mangyari,
03:30ibig sabihin,
03:31nagpa-panic ho ang oil market
03:33at ang kadahilanan siguro nyan,
03:35pati na ho yung other Middle East countries
03:39oil export ay nagkakaroon ng problema.
03:42Sana ho, limitado lang
03:44at ito'y maging localized lang dun sa Iran.
03:49But in any case,
03:50nakabantay ho ang Department of Energy
03:52sa araw-araw na sitwasyon
03:55para ho,
03:55may maireport ho tayo
03:57at ma-update ho natin
03:59ang ating,
04:00ang Department of Energy
04:02at mga ibang ahensya
04:03at ang ating mga kababayan ho.
04:05Okay.
04:05Director, nabanggit mo na ito nga lang
04:07February 28,
04:08nangyari yung sigalot
04:09at hindi maaaring ito yung makaapekto
04:11ng sobra
04:12sa magiging adjustment for this week.
04:15Pero,
04:15worst case scenario po
04:16kung sa kasakad
04:17ay magka
04:17o magpatuloy
04:18itong sigalot
04:19sa gitnang silangan,
04:20gaano po kalaki
04:22ang magiging epekto nito
04:23sa ating bansa?
04:25Well,
04:25ang existing ngayon
04:26na lumalabas sa mga oil reports,
04:28ang projection
04:29ng mga analyst
04:30ay baka
04:31umingkris
04:32ng 5 to 10 US dollar
04:35per barrel.
04:36Ang kasalukuyang level
04:37ho
04:38ng ating crude oil
04:39ay nasa
04:4072 US dollar
04:41per barrel
04:42at ang estimate
04:44ho namin
04:44kung madadagdagan ito
04:46ng mga 10 US dollar
04:48per barrel,
04:48bawat isang
04:50US dollar po
04:51ay baka
04:52umabot ho
04:53ng 30 centavo
04:55in terms of
04:57peso
04:57impact
04:58dun sa pump price.
05:00So,
05:00kung
05:00ang mga 10 US dollar
05:03na yan
05:03times
05:0430 centavo
05:05baka umabot ho
05:05tayo
05:06ng 3 pesos.
05:07Ngayon nga,
05:09bukas
05:09meron na ho tayong
05:10mararamdaman na
05:11more than 1 peso.
05:13So,
05:15most likely
05:16again,
05:16ang sabi ko
05:17kung aabutin natin
05:19yung 10 US dollar
05:20baka umabot pa tayo
05:21ng mga additional
05:222 pesos pa
05:24for the next
05:25few weeks.
05:27Yun ay
05:28ang sitwasyon
05:29na hindi ho
05:29gagrabe
05:30kasi ang
05:32projection naman ho
05:33pag
05:33buong Middle East
05:35supply
05:36ang magka problema
05:37yan ho
05:38ang sitwasyon
05:38na
05:39baka umabot ho tayo
05:40ng
05:42more than
05:43100 US dollar
05:44per barrel.
05:45Nasa 72 tayo
05:46ngayon,
05:47napakalayo ho
05:48ang tataasan
05:49ng price na yan
05:50at medyo
05:51mabigat ho yan
05:52at magkakaproblema
05:54lang,
05:54hindi ho
05:54ang Pilipinas
05:55lang,
05:56kundi
05:56ang buong mundo
05:57dahil napakalaki
05:59ho ang supply
06:00na mawawala.
06:01It will be around
06:0216 to 17 percent
06:04of the global
06:05So,
06:06Director,
06:07in terms of
06:08pangangasiwa po
06:08nitong epekto nga
06:09na inaasahan
06:10pagtaas mo
06:10sakasakaling
06:11mangyaring
06:11magpatuloy itong
06:13sigalot.
06:14Ito pong
06:14pagkakalaki
06:42ngomnya
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