Panayam kay DOE-Oil Industry Management Bureau, Dir. Rino Abad ukol sa paggalaw sa presyo ng produktong petrolyo ngayong lingo at ang inaasahang oil price outlook ngayong pasko at bagong taon

12 hours ago

Panayam kay DOE-Oil Industry Management Bureau, Dir. Rino Abad ukol sa paggalaw sa presyo ng produktong petrolyo ngayong lingo at ang inaasahang oil price outlook ngayong pasko at bagong taon

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Transcript

00:00Samantala, paggalaw sa presyo ng produktong petrolyo ngayong linggo at ang inaasahang oil price outlook ngayong Pasko at Bagong Taon,

00:08ating alamin kasama si Director Rino Abad ng Oil Industry Management Bureau ng Department of Energy.

00:15Director Abad, magandang tanghali po at welcome sa Bagong Pilipinas ngayon.

00:22Magandang tanghali, Music Marge, Asek Chowee at sa ating mga viewers po.

00:30Sir, ano po ang pangunahing dahilan ng taas po ng presyo sa gasolina ngayong December 9?

00:35May nangyari po ba sa international oil market o may internal factors po ba sa Pilipinas na nakaapekto po dito?

00:45Well, supposedly, ang trend at kalalabas lang ang report ng International Energy Agency.

00:54At saka yung sinundan ho yan ang U.S. Energy Information Administration,

01:02magka-pareho na ho ang projection na by next year, makakaroon niya ho ng oversupply ng oil.

01:08So, ibig sabihin ho, malakas ho ang chance na pababa ho ang trend.

01:14So, ito ngayon parang nasasabit ng konti pa yung gasoline sa pag-i-increase ng konti.

01:23But if you look at the trend for the past two weeks,

01:26pababa na ho talaga yung last week,

01:29nagkaroon ho tayo ng rollback at this week mayroong no adjustment.

01:34But malakas ho talaga ang chance na papunta na ho tayo sa pagkakaroon ng declining price.

01:42Brought about by projection na magkakaroon ng oversupply na first quarter of 2026.

01:49Mayroon lang ho ang dalawang major factor na talagang kumokontra doon.

01:55Unang-una yung persistent problem with Ukraine and Russia.

02:00Ang perception ho is, tuloy-tuloy ang failure,

02:08yung unsustained plan to settle the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

02:15At dahil dito, tuloy-tuloy ang sanction ng US at Europe

02:19na ang latest projection ng JP Morgan Chase

02:26na nababalam, hindi nakakalabas yung around 1.4 million barrels per day

02:33of oil export to the market ng Russia.

02:38So malaking bagay ho yun.

02:40Ang iniisip po natin yung forecast ng International Energy Agency

02:45na oversupply is around 3 to 4 million by the first quarter per day.

02:51For the first quarter of 2026, nababawasan ho yun ng ganun kalaki,

02:551.4 million barrels per day from Russia.

02:59At ongoing ho yung Venezuela problem.

03:02Venezuela is contributing of a production of around 1.1 million barrels of oil per day.

03:08Hindi pa ho, klaro ngayon, kung ilang volume out of that per day na oil,

03:141.1 million, ang naapektuhan sa ongoing, well, geopolitical issue with US.

03:23Basically, which most of the analysts sa oil,

03:28nag-expect na pag hindi na settle, will end up with a sanction na naman kay US.

03:35So itong dalawang factor, halimbawa mga half of that 1.1 million,

03:41ang nag-offset lang ho sa sana sa tuloy-tuloy na magandang supply,

03:48oversupply balance versus the demand,

03:51which benefits us as buyers, no?

03:54Itong bansang Pilipinas, gumibili tayo.

03:57Pag ganyan, maganda ho ang pagkitaan doon sa supply,

04:00maganda rin ho ang in-expect na price, no?

04:04Pababa ang price.

04:05So, yan ho ang sitwasyon natin.

04:08At for now, tuloy naman ang usapan sa Ukraine-Russia,

04:13hindi yan tinitigilan ang possible peace talk.

04:18At yung Venezuela, ongoing pa ho ang conflict dito.

04:23At we hope na pag na-resolve ho yan, talagang dire-direts ho,

04:26we will be expecting a decline in price.

04:29Mas pag hindi ho, medyo yan ho ang magkukos ng problem sana sa tuloy-tuloy na pagbaba ng price.

04:36Director Rino, habang hindi pa po nare-resolve ba yung conflict sa Russia at Ukraine at yung US-Venezuela situation,

04:43nabanggit nyo nga na may projected oversupply sa first quarter ng 2026.

04:48So, ano yung inaasahan natin sa first month o sa sabihin natin hanggang February?

04:56Rollback ba or price hike?

04:59O depende talaga doon sa magiging resulta ng dalawang geopolitical situations?

05:05Sir Jorino, mataas talaga ang chance na nakababa ang price.

05:12Kasi na, fundamental yung, of course, International Energy Agency na ho yung nag-forecast

05:18na around 4 million barrels per day ay inaasahan na oversupply.

05:24In other words, ang dami yun yan.

05:26Ang dami ho talaga ng supply ng oil na wala ho tayong inaasahang problema sana sa supply

05:34and under 4, bababa talaga ang price.

05:36But, of course, nandyan ho talaga ang dalawa eh.

05:39Mga spoiler ho talaga yung dalawang major factors na yan.

05:43At yun nga, mataas ang chance na ng bababa.

05:48But, we don't expect na tuloy-tuloy because of these two problems, no?

05:54Anything that surfaces from these two factors,

06:00agaran ho din ang effect doon sa price.

06:03So, I would say na malakas ho ang trend, bababa.

06:09Pag minsan-minsan ho, pag meron ho matuloy na sanction,

06:12alam na ho natin, pag nag-sunction ho,

06:14kumiipikto ka agad sa price.

06:17Because of the speculation,

06:18kahit wala naman ho talaga ang effect doon sa fundamental supply,

06:23ilang beses na ho tayong naka-experience na by speculation,

06:27biglang tumataas ang price.

06:30If not sustained, bumababa din naman.

06:33But, of course, on the journey nung meron ho mga masamang balita,

06:40nagkakaroon ho talaga ng speculative impact doon sa pag-i-increase ng price.

06:44But, overall, ang fundamental ho natin,

06:48mababa ho, dapat ang price,

06:49pababa ho,

06:50kasi,

06:51ini-expecto talaga na mayroong maraming supply ng oil

06:54for the global market.

06:57Sir, gasolina lang po kasi yung tumataas,

06:59habang walang galaw sa diesel at kerosene.

07:02Sir, paano po ba yan na ipapaliwanag ng DOE

07:05ang pagkakaibang ito sa galaw po ng presyo sa petrolyo?

07:08At ano po ba yung estado ng supply ng diesel at kerosene?

07:12Medyo tricky na ho yan.

07:16We tried to have the definitive reports on per product.

07:22Medyo nahihirapan ho yung kasubscription natin,

07:25even flats.

07:26Yung flats mismo, yung SP Global Flats,

07:30hindi ho nila kaya i-really identify yung kanya-kanyang produkto.

07:36So, what we can do is really go to the trend of the crude oil,

07:40saka natin ina-apply sa finish product.

07:43So, ang nangyayari lang ho,

07:46mayroong konting pagkakaiba ng konti yung mga price movement

07:49ng bawat produkto,

07:51but on the overall side, yung crude oil,

07:54doon ho talaga definitive yung movement

07:56because we're just talking about

07:58three major benchmark,

08:00yung Dubai,

08:02Brandt, at saka WTI.

08:04So, very clear yung trend ng tatlo.

08:07Hindi ho yan nag-iiba-iba.

08:09They refer to one product,

08:11which is crude oil.

08:12Pag-finish product ho,

08:14for example,

08:14if you're on the side of Asia-Pacific,

08:18na hindi naman ho tayo dumadaan sa summertime

08:20at biglang magkakaroon ng winter period,

08:23eh, hindi ho masyadong magalaw yung ating trend.

08:27So, if you notice,

08:29pag medyo pababa ng konti,

08:31pataas-pataas ng konti.

08:33In the case of U.S.,

08:35for example,

08:35during the summer period,

08:37mula April hanggang September siguro,

08:41malakas yung gamit talaga na sa gasoline.

08:43So, hindi tayo sumusunod doon,

08:46pero umi-increase sa kanila.

08:48Masyadong umi-increase sa kanila yung gasoline na.

08:50So, in this case,

08:51sustained lang ho tayo,

08:53but in the case of U.S.,

08:55for example,

08:55they're really declining sa gasoline price

08:59kasi wala na yung summer period

09:01na malaki talaga ang gamit doon sa mga vehicle,

09:04maraming gamit sa vehicle.

09:07Tayo dito,

09:08sustained

09:08ang lahat ng produkto

09:11all year round.

09:12So, it's so happy na ngayon,

09:14medyo,

09:15mataas lang ng konti ang gasolina,

09:17but we still believe na later on,

09:19it will catch up with the trend of diesel

09:21and kerosene na pababa na rin.

09:23So, meron lang natitira

09:25ng increase,

09:27pero pababa na rin ho

09:28ang trend ng price ng gasolina.

09:30Director Reno,

09:32alam ko na pasadahan natin ito

09:33nung huling pag-uusap natin.

09:35Historically po ba,

09:37tumataas ang presyo ng krudo

09:39kapag Pasko,

09:41pero kung whether oo o hindi,

09:43paano po kung may namantala

09:45o magsamantala sa sitwasyon

09:47at mag-overprice po,

09:49i-manipulate nila yung price?

09:51Ano pong gagawin ng DOE?

09:53Well, in the case of,

09:57in the case sa Asia-Pacific region,

10:00specifically ko ang pinag-uusapan

10:02yung market ng China,

10:05Singapore,

10:06papuntang ASEAN countries,

10:08hindi ho tayo masyadong affected

10:09nung trend ng season,

10:13seasonality of price trend

10:15based on seasonality of the months.

10:19Again, yung Northern Hemisphere countries,

10:22subject ko sila dyan.

10:24Kasi during summer,

10:25talagang maraming gumagamit.

10:27During winter,

10:28kong tiyan gumagamit.

10:29Pero baliktad ang effect.

10:31Sa kanila naman,

10:31tumataas din ang LPG.

10:33So, dito sa atin,

10:35since limited ang LPG supply,

10:38naapektoan ho tayo.

10:39Kaya ngayon,

10:41papuntang March,

10:43we will be expecting

10:44na pa-increase ang LPG.

10:45But sa gasolina ho,

10:47predominantly,

10:48talagang affected lang ho yan

10:50sa crude oil,

10:52sa crude oil price trend,

10:55oversupply,

10:56undersupply,

10:57ng balance,

11:00and then,

11:00of course,

11:01yung geopolitical issues

11:02pag may lumalabas

11:05ng mga,

11:05predominantly,

11:06ng mga sanction.

11:07At usually,

11:08ang sanction dito,

11:09nanggagaling,

11:10wala hong ibang bansa,

11:11kundi US at saka Europe,

11:13palagi lang ho,

11:14yung dalawang yan

11:15ang mahilig mga sanction.

11:17So,

11:18overall,

11:19sir,

11:19Joey,

11:20trend on season-based,

11:23na trend ng price

11:25ng liquid fuel,

11:27gasoline,

11:27diesel,

11:28ang kerosene,

11:28hindi mo masyadong affected

11:29yung ASEAN region.

11:33Probably,

11:34in Northern Hemisphere countries,

11:36affected sila.

11:37But we are,

11:38because of the limited supplier

11:39of LPG,

11:41we are affected.

11:41Ang malaki ho yung supplier dyan,

11:43galing pa rin ng crude oil,

11:45at

11:45ang affected ho,

11:47na gumagamit yan,

11:48globally,

11:49at tayo yung nadadala doon sa price,

11:51ay yung LPG.

11:52So, admittedly,

11:53hanggang March,

11:55medyo may

11:55elevated ho

11:57ang price natin sa LPG.

11:58But,

11:59but the liquid fuel,

12:00wala,

12:01sasayaw lang ho yan,

12:02sa trend,

12:03kung anong nangyayari,

12:04on a daily basis doon sa global market.

12:07Director Rino,

12:08dahil ito na po yung

12:09ikalawang sunod na linggo

12:10ng taas presyo,

12:12ano-ano ang mga

12:12rekomendasyon ng DOE

12:14sa motorista

12:14at transport groups

12:16para makatipid po

12:17sa consumption?

12:21Okay,

12:22in the past two weeks,

12:23last week,

12:25nag-decrease po tayo,

12:27but today,

12:28ngayong week,

12:30wala ho tayong increase,

12:31walang adjustment

12:32doon sa diesel

12:33ang kerosene.

12:34May increase lang ho tayo

12:35admittedly

12:36for the past two weeks

12:36doon sa gasoline.

12:38Pero,

12:38paliit ng paliit ho yan,

12:39pababa ng pababa.

12:41Sa ating mga consumer ho,

12:42well,

12:44ang unang ho

12:45na rating

12:46nakikita

12:47ang mga benefits

12:48na direct

12:49doon sa kanilang

12:50fuel use

12:51at fuel cost nila

12:53ay i-avail ho talaga

12:55yung direct

12:56na mga binibigay

12:58na fuel subsidy

12:59ng mga oil companies.

13:01Meron ho talaga dyan,

13:03tinapahalagahan ho

13:04yung mga

13:05PUVs

13:06na magkaroon ho

13:07ng discount.

13:08So,

13:08maraming gasoline station

13:10o maabot ho

13:10ng 5 peso per liter

13:12ang binibigay

13:13doon sa PUVs.

13:14Doon sa private motorist,

13:16usually,

13:17ano,

13:18yung loyalty cards,

13:19meron ho mga

13:20discount

13:22na binibigay.

13:23If at all,

13:24meron direct

13:25pero kadamihan ho

13:26based sa loyalty cards.

13:28So,

13:29either you download

13:29the app

13:30ng oil company

13:31or you get

13:32a card

13:32to use it

13:33para makakuha

13:34kayo ng points

13:36or a direct discount

13:38on a per liter basis.

13:40Pero ang mga PUV ho,

13:41directa ho,

13:42kadamihan ho

13:43ng kausap namin

13:44at na-arrange ito

13:45with the oil companies,

13:46karamihan ho sa kanila,

13:48directa talagang

13:48bawas

13:49doon sa

13:50per liter

13:51na ginagastos

13:53ng mga

13:53PUV drivers

13:55natin

13:56on the selected

13:57gasoline station.

13:58So,

13:59mapagmatyag ho

14:00na lang po

14:00ang ating mga

14:01PUV drivers.

14:02Pumili ho sila

14:03ng gasoline station

14:04na merong

14:04binibigay

14:06ng mga discount

14:07na direct

14:08doon sa kanilang

14:09fuel na kailangan,

14:11usually diesel.

14:13Director,

14:13nabanggit nyo kanina

14:14yung LPG.

14:16Ano po yung

14:16aasahan

14:17ng ating mga kababayan

14:18na magiging

14:19takbo ng trend.

14:21Sabi nyo kanina

14:21baka hanggang

14:22March may pagtaas.

14:23So,

14:24habang papalagpit po

14:25yung Pasko

14:26at bagong taon,

14:26mga magkano po

14:27kaya yung

14:28maidadagdag sa presyo,

14:30lalo na kasi

14:30siyempre

14:30mag-no-noche buena,

14:32mag-media noche.

14:33Sir Joey,

14:36ang kaibahan

14:37sa liquid fuel,

14:39weekly ho ang adjustment

14:40na nakasanayan natin.

14:43But on the LPG,

14:45it's a monthly

14:46adjustment.

14:47So,

14:49once they adjust

14:50for the beginning

14:50of the month,

14:52effective lang ho

14:52ang price na yun.

14:53Walang galawan

14:54hanggang end of the month.

14:56So,

14:56ang inasahan na lang

14:57ho natin dito

14:58kasi tapos na ho

14:59ang December.

15:00So,

15:01January ho,

15:02February and March.

15:04Sa tatlong buwan na yan,

15:05we're still expecting

15:06na may trend ho

15:07ng pagtaas.

15:10But,

15:11come April

15:12hanggang September

15:13naman ho

15:13of next year,

15:16sunod-sunod naman ho

15:17talaga yan,

15:18pababaan naman ang price.

15:19So,

15:20we'll be expecting

15:20na three more months.

15:22Ang inasahan natin

15:24na mayroong

15:25mga paggalaw

15:26at malakas ho

15:27ang chance na

15:28ang paggalaw

15:28ay pataas ho.

15:29Al-Frice.

15:31Okay.

15:32Maraming salamat po

15:33sa inyong oras,

15:34Director Rino Abad

15:35ng Oil Industry Management

15:37Bureau ng Department

15:38of Energy.

Panayam kay DOE-Oil Industry Management Bureau, Dir. Rino Abad ukol sa paggalaw sa presyo ng produktong petrolyo ngayong lingo at ang inaasahang oil price outlook ngayong pasko at bagong taon

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