00:00We can bring in David Kamru, a senior researcher at Sciences Po and a specialist on Southeast Asia.
00:07David, thank you so much for joining us on the program today.
00:11Now, as we heard there in this report, these are the first elections since the military seized power in a coup five years ago.
00:19And, you know, they've kind of cracked down on dissent ahead of the vote.
00:23So why now and really actually why hold elections at all?
00:27Well, there are several reasons.
00:33The first is the elections were promised six months after the coup.
00:37And there's been a state of emergency for the last five years.
00:41So it's finally occurring.
00:43Why now?
00:44A year ago, it looked as if the junta was on its last legs.
00:50A year ago, it looked we have there were articles saying this was the end, the beginning of the end of the military.
00:58And what has happened since is China has intervened.
01:02China is the kingmaker in all of this process.
01:05It's China who's pushed for these elections to be held.
01:09It stopped the double game it used to play before, which was providing arms through some of its puppet ethnic groups, the Tang National Army, for example.
01:23It stopped providing weaponry to the resistance.
01:26The military has learned a few lessons, become better organized.
01:32They've brought in conscripts.
01:33They're using drones supplied by Russia and China.
01:37So they've taken back the initiative, so to speak.
01:40So it appears this is the right time for the military.
01:43Now, the elections, the first thing to be noted is the elections are being held under the 2008 Constitution.
01:52That Constitution gives 25 percent of the seats before the voting begins go to the military.
02:00So the military, even before anybody starts voting, already has 25 percent of the seats in the parliament.
02:06The elections are over three phases out of there will be held approximately 270 townships out of the 330 that Myanmar comprises.
02:18But again, one has to be very careful about this, because in some of those areas, voting will probably occur in military barracks.
02:27That will be the only place where people can vote.
02:30People are being coerced to vote.
02:33So the election is a scam.
02:38It will not be fair.
02:39It will not be free.
02:41The main opposition party, the National League for Democracy, is banned.
02:47The governing, the party closer to the military, the USDP, is only one of five parties that have candidates nationally.
02:55There are 51 parties competing, but most of those are small parties from ethnic groups.
03:01So, you know, we know that the result before it's even held, because even if, you know, not everybody votes and not all of those areas can vote, the military will get its majority in the parliament.
03:17The unit will get its majority with the 25 percent for the military and the other that will be elected.
03:23Now, David, as you mentioned there, if it's already sort of a foregone conclusion that the military is going to come out on top of this election, what else are they hoping to gain from this?
03:36Well, they want some degree of legitimacy.
03:43You know, the Min An Lung, the leader of the junta, wants to take off his uniform and put on not a suit, but a traditional dress.
03:51They want to, you know, they want to have a degree of recognition.
03:57But this is really about playing to the gallery.
03:59It's about playing to the local gallery.
04:02That is China, India, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia.
04:06It's not about trying to please the Western world.
04:09It's about getting that degree of legitimacy.
04:13You see, ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, has got other problems at the moment, for example, with the war between Thailand and Cambodia.
04:23In the region, they just want some kind of degree, some civilian government, no matter how fake, to emerge and then to get on, you know, to get back to life as usual.
04:35Unfortunately, the West has not been helpful.
04:41It's not done anything really to help the national unity government, which is a government in exile.
04:46The national unity government itself is not being very helped itself much.
04:50It doesn't have control of the people's defense forces that are fighting the military.
04:57It is not well coordinated with the ethnic armed groups.
05:00So what we're heading for is the kind of fragmented Myanmar, where there will be a civilian government in the areas controlled by the military.
05:12But outside, you know, the war with ethnic groups will continue.
05:15There will be an attempt to sign peace fires, probably between the government that will emerge.
05:21But it's a rather distressing and bleak situation that we are entering into.
05:27This is the first phase of the election.
05:29We'll have the final results at the end of January after the next two phases.
05:36But it is one in which the hopes of the resistance of even a year ago when they had a series of military victories and now have now been dashed.
05:47Now, David, I want to talk a little bit about the people there in Myanmar, because they are the ones who are suffering.
05:54They're being bombed. The economy has basically flatlined since the coup there.
06:00So how do they feel about this election?
06:04I mean, they're forced to take part.
06:05But do any of them see that something good might come out of this?
06:10Or are they just sort of done with the whole situation?
06:15It varies.
06:16Because those who are hardline in the resistance want to continue the struggle.
06:24Those in the refugee camps, in the borders, particularly in Thailand, some of those people want to return.
06:33You know, there's a kind of a degree of resignation, I think, in some parts of Myanmar.
06:41Let's get this, you know, OK, there'll be some form of civilian government.
06:46But, you know, so many times the hopes for democracy in Myanmar have been dashed.
06:531988, 2008, 2000, 2020.
07:03So there's a sense, well, you know, we'll deal with this situation and maybe something good will emerge.
07:14Maybe it will take time.
07:16But there's a degree of, I think, of, in French, we say lassitude.
07:20There's a degree of tiredness with the continuing struggle.
07:24It has been five years since the coup.
07:25And the international community has been totally hopeless.
07:31You know, the time to intervene was immediately after the coup when there were peaceful demonstrations, which were suppressed by the military.
07:39It wasn't done.
07:40The military has bought time.
07:42That's what they wanted with ASEAN, the five-point consensus of 25th of April, 2021.
07:48And in the process of at least temporarily, temporarily achieving their objectives.
07:59David, thank you so much for sharing your analysis with this.
08:03We'll be following this story, waiting for the results at the end of the month.
08:07That's David Camryu, a senior researcher at Sciences Po.
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