00:00Let's move on because a crucial parliamentary election is taking place in Iraq today.
00:05The votes will determine whether the Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani can maintain power.
00:10Looming over voters are fears of another war between Israel and Iran
00:14and potential Israeli or even U.S. strikes on Iran-backed groups in Iraq.
00:20These polls are taking place against the backdrop of a boycott
00:23called by the populist Shiite cleric Maktadah al-Sahd, which is expected to cause a low turnout.
00:30We'll get to talk more on this and bring in Renan Mansour.
00:33He's a senior research fellow at Chatham House and the director of Iraq Initiative.
00:39Renan, thank you so much for joining us on the program.
00:41First of all, I want to get your take on how good of a chance you see Prime Minister
00:46Mohammed Shia al-Sudani having of maintaining power here.
00:50Well, I think there's two things there.
00:54The first question is, how likely is the Prime Minister to win the election or at least be the frontrunner?
01:01And I think most of the polling has suggested that, that his coalition is ahead in the polls.
01:08But then there's the second question, which is the more important question,
01:11which is, will the Prime Minister hang on to power?
01:14It's important to note that since regime change in Iraq over the last 20 years,
01:20the leader who has won the election has never gone on to become the Prime Minister, in a way.
01:26So, and the reason for that is because the government formation process takes hundreds of days.
01:32And it involves intense negotiation between different political parties.
01:38And the Prime Minister's coalition itself is quite fragile.
01:41It's not a single party.
01:43It's many different groups, many different leaders taking advantage of the kind of incumbency wave.
01:50And so for that reason, the Prime Minister's list may come first, but there are many parties competing and any government will have to be a coalition government.
02:00And the candidate that becomes Prime Minister will have to be a consensus compromise.
02:05And this really means that the chances for Mohammed al-Shia Sudani to remain in the second term are quite slim.
02:12Well, Rana, let's talk about the mood among Iraqis.
02:15We've heard so much about how disillusioned they are during these elections.
02:19What's driving that disillusionment?
02:22It's partly what I mentioned.
02:25Iraqis, you know, were told after 2003 that they now live in a democracy.
02:32And elections were seen to be an important pulse of that democracy.
02:37You know, you can vote.
02:39And if you don't like your leadership, you can vote every four years.
02:43But sadly, what Iraqis have learned is elections haven't really brought about change.
02:47In fact, it's been the same leaders are recycling their seats and negotiating amongst each other,
02:53taking the seats as bargaining chips.
02:55So they haven't seen much change.
02:57And more critically, Iraq is a very wealthy country.
03:01Its budget every year is over $100 billion.
03:04And yet there isn't 24-hour electricity.
03:07In many parts of Iraq, there isn't good, you know, clean water.
03:11Many are unemployed and youth unemployment is on the rise.
03:15This basic standard of living in Iraq for many Iraqis is subpar and many are suffering.
03:21So they put two and two together.
03:23They say our country is very wealthy, but we don't really feel any of that wealth.
03:28And when we try and vote, when we've tried to vote in the past,
03:32the people who we voted for haven't really turned out to make the government or become the leader.
03:37So there is a strong resistance to what they call the political parties.
03:41That is the elites that are now governing the system on top,
03:44who are not interested in a genuine sort of democratic change and accountability.
03:49Let's look closely at the prime minister's track record so far,
03:54because he's had to walk a bit of a tightrope, hasn't he, between the U.S. and Tehran's influence.
04:01Yes, that's right.
04:03And one of, I think, the more remarkable stories is in a Middle East that's been in perpetual conflict
04:11the last few years since October 7th, Iraq has for once been insulated.
04:15Iraq has not been the center of Middle East conflict, which kind of became the norm for a long time.
04:21But it's been one of the more stable countries, even though it's been in the orbit of Iran for many years.
04:28It's been one of the only countries.
04:29It's the only country that has an axis of resistance, that has this kind of Iranian relationship,
04:34that hasn't felt the violence in conflicts like countries like Lebanon, Syria, Palestine, Yemen and Iran even.
04:42So the prime minister has managed, and the government in Baghdad has managed to keep their heads down,
04:49to focus on economic investment and infrastructure,
04:52to take advantage of an oil price that has been relatively stable,
04:56to just build and stay away from resistance.
05:00Many of the sort of armed groups and militias that people assumed would immediately come to Iran's defense
05:08or to fight for Iran have actually stayed quiet.
05:11And there's been a kind of restraint.
05:14And for these reasons, Iraq thus far has managed to stay out of the regional conflict.
05:21Well, just going back to this parliamentary election,
05:25the prominent Shiite nationalist cleric, Muqtada al-Sahd, is boycotting this vote.
05:31How is that likely to impact the election?
05:33And, you know, we go back to the discussion of elections.
05:38It was actually, you know, Muqtada al-Sahd's list won the last election,
05:42but were unable to form the government and then pulled out of parliament.
05:46And the lesson he's drawn from that is don't compete in elections.
05:51So certainly, you know, he is one of the most prominent Iraqi political figures
05:56and has a massive movement.
05:59So all around, you know, southern city and other parts of southern Iraq and Baghdad,
06:05you have big populations who are loyal to the Shiite cleric, the populist cleric,
06:10and who aren't voting.
06:11So it's likely that the voter turnout would be lower.
06:15From his perspective, he's trying to delegitimize the elections.
06:19He's trying to present himself as being against the political system,
06:23as being almost a protest leader in a way, while also trying to keep one foot in.
06:29So it's a balancing act for Muqtada al-Sahd,
06:31but certainly he is a powerful Iraqi social leader with a massive movement behind him.
06:38Well, another key and big looming question over this election, over Iraq,
06:42is whether it's ready to manage its own security.
06:44Without the help of the U.S.,
06:45the remaining U.S. troops in Iraq are set to leave next year.
06:49Al-Sudani says Iraq is prepared to take on the challenge.
06:52Do you think that is the case?
06:56You know, the U.S. troop, you know, Operation Inherent Resolve,
07:01that is coming to an end.
07:03Its goal was to combat ISIS, Daesh.
07:07And every year, ISIS attacks have gone down.
07:11And they've been at historic lows.
07:16So to some extent, the security situation across Iraq
07:19is very stable.
07:20It's more stable than it's been for many, many years.
07:24So for this reason, the prime minister and the government have said,
07:27we want a different relationship with the U.S.
07:29We don't want there to be a troop presence.
07:31We want to have bilateral relationships.
07:33We want to have what they call normalized relationships.
07:36So that is the case.
07:37I would say, however, Iraq has a lot of challenges.
07:40Everything from climate change to corruption to this sort of dissatisfaction
07:46across the country and some of the roots of conflict aren't really being addressed yet.
07:52So, yes, while on the surface, Iraq is as stable as it's ever been,
07:56it remains quite fragile for a number of reasons.
08:00Rana, thank you so much for joining us on the program.
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