00:00I just want to get a sense before you leave us, how are you thinking about the next meeting?
00:03Because it could potentially be your last. Do you plan on dissenting in favor of 50 basis point cut again?
00:08Look, I plan on pushing for the policy that I think is appropriate at the time.
00:13I will say when I got to the Fed, we hadn't cut rates at all this year.
00:16And so it was very important for us to move rates down quickly.
00:20Since then, we've pushed rates down three times, 75 basis points of cuts to the policy rate.
00:25So the need for me to dissent for 50 becomes a little bit less as we come down.
00:30I haven't yet decided whether I'm going to push for 25 or 50 next meeting.
00:33I think it depends on a variety of factors.
00:36So I could see voting for 25, but I do think it's important that we continue steadily reducing the policy rate.
00:42So basically you'll vote for 25 with the rest of the committees there.
00:45If they're not going to push through 25, you may alert everyone of your dissatisfaction with them by going for 50?
00:52Well, no, it depends.
00:54I think I want to see the data.
00:57You know, we're still waiting on a lot of data because of the shutdown, right?
00:59So I want to see what the data do to my forecast going forward and how they change my forecast going forward.
01:04But the truth is that I think that it was really important to vote, sorry, to cut in bigger clips when policy was very high.
01:10As we continue reducing policy, I think you sort of get into territory where you can start micromanaging instead of big cuts.
01:17And I don't know whether we're here yet or it would sort of still take a couple more cuts to get there.
01:22But at some point you sort of start to become OK with sort of steady 25 basis point cuts instead of 50 basis point cuts.
01:27Do you think it's going to be your last meeting?
01:28Has the White House reached out about whether or not you're going to stay on at the Fed?
01:31I have no idea.
01:32I mean, look, you know, if nobody is confirmed in my seat by January 31st, I assume that I will stay in my seat.
01:39You know, you can stay in a seat until a successor is confirmed.
01:43And then beyond that, you know, it'll all depend on who the president ultimately nominates to be the next chairman of the Fed because it'll depend on, you know, what seats are available and who the president wants to fill them.
01:54When it comes to the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, there are two individuals that you've worked closely with just this year alone.
02:00Kevin Hassett, of course, when you were at the White House and also Christopher Waller, Governor Waller, of course, with you at the Fed.
02:06Can you just give us your evaluation of both those individuals, given the fact that you have a very good, I imagine, relationship with both of them?
02:13Yeah, look, they're both supremely talented economists and extremely effective individuals that I have the utmost respect for.
02:19And I think the country would be very lucky to have either of them.
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