00:00The U.S. Coast Guard is in active pursuit of a third oil tanker near Venezuela.
00:05Officials accuse it of evading Washington sanctions.
00:08It's the second such operation this weekend.
00:10Caracas condemns Saturday's seizure as a violation of international law,
00:15saying it will file a complaint with the U.N. Security Council.
00:19The U.S. has imposed a blockade of sanctioned tankers entering and leaving Venezuela
00:24and has increased its military presence in the region to combat alleged drug trafficking.
00:30John Feeley is a former U.S. ambassador to Panama.
00:38He joins me now for more from Washington.
00:41Thank you very much for joining us.
00:43A pleasure, Aaron.
00:45So this is the second such operation this weekend and the third in recent weeks.
00:50So how exactly high are tensions running at the moment in the Caribbean?
00:55Well, tensions have been high for quite a while.
00:57I mean, let's be very frank.
00:59This is the largest flotilla that the United States has assembled there in anybody's living memory.
01:05The issue has been what is the purpose of all this military hardware,
01:11American military hardware, in the waters of the Southern Caribbean?
01:16Is it a counter-narcotics mission?
01:18Is it a regime change mission?
01:20Is it simply, as we're seeing in this latest development, the implementation of a legitimate sanctions regime?
01:28The fact is, Aaron, the hardware gets bigger, the presence grows more menacing,
01:35and unfortunately, the motive behind it all grows more confusing.
01:39Well, that actually begs the question, with there being a confused motive, as you said,
01:45are there legal grounds for the U.S. to seize ships in the region?
01:49Oh, very much so.
01:50I mean, this actually is something that a number of people, even in the Biden administration, had recommended.
01:58Look, we've got three cases so far.
02:01Of them, the skipper was boarded last week.
02:06This was a ship that was on a U.S. sanctions list for having worked in terms of trafficking oil to the Iranian ICRG.
02:16It was boarded.
02:18There was a judicial warrant for it out of a U.S. court, a seizure warrant.
02:22And it was boarded, and it was brought to a port in Galveston in Texas.
02:27The second one, boarded yesterday, the Sentries, was not on a sanctions list by the United States.
02:34It had picked up oil, and it's not entirely clear what the status of that ship is.
02:40But it was not on a sanctions list.
02:42This third ship, the Bella One, was on a U.S. sanctions list as well for working in Iran.
02:50And it has decided to evade seizure.
02:54And so there is what the U.S. Coast Guard calls an active pursuit underway right now.
03:00But there is a legal basis for these detentions of these tankers, although we have to find out in that second one.
03:09So what message exactly do you think the United States is attempting to send to Latin America and the world more broadly with these operations?
03:16Well, look, let's be honest.
03:21Implementing a sanctions regime is one thing.
03:24Stopping drug trafficking is another.
03:28Tipping over a regime through military force is quite another.
03:34I'm not entirely sure.
03:36I think, Aaron, unfortunately, that what we're seeing here is the result of improvisational amateurism.
03:42From the beginning of this second Trump administration, it's clear that they don't like Nicolas Maduro.
03:49Well, they can get in line.
03:50A lot of people don't like Nicolas Maduro or the human rights abusing regime of Venezuela these days.
03:57But what they started out with was clearly a negotiation strategy.
04:01By the summer, that was clear it had failed.
04:04The president told Rick Grinnell, his special envoy, to come home and stop negotiating.
04:08And then the buildup began.
04:10The buildup to date, starting with the first attack on a small vessel on September 2nd, has been declared a counter-narcotics mission.
04:20But over the last three months, inevitably, we're all asking these questions.
04:25Is it about oil?
04:26Is it about regime change?
04:28And sadly, we don't have any greater clarity from the Trump administration.
04:32Now, as a former Marine pilot yourself, how do you assess the risks of escalation when U.S. forces operate so close to Venezuelan territorial waters?
04:41Well, as long as they stay outside the waters, or quite frankly, even in the waters, because Venezuela's navy really isn't much to speak of, there really isn't much risk to U.S. forces.
04:56If they decide to use standoff missile attacks from the multiple ships they have in the region that are capable of firing the Tomahawk missile with the Aegis guidance system, which is deadly accurate,
05:09they can pinpoint attacks on any number of places inside Venezuela, which is part of the speculation, I believe, they are trying to create to provoke regime collapse.
05:19Where there is real risk to American military personnel is if they decide to invade.
05:27And frankly, Aaron, most observers here in the United States think that's still a remote possibility because it's wildly unpopular here in the United States.
05:38Only about 20 percent of the American people would support boots on the ground.
05:43And it is an electoral year in 2026 with midterms.
05:47All right, we're going to have to leave it there.
05:49That was John Feeley, former U.S. ambassador to Panama and a former Marine pilot.
05:53Thank you very much for your expertise.
05:56A pleasure, Aaron.
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