#stockmarketupdates #sensex #nifty Wall Street’s major indexes finished higher on Thursday after softer-than-expected US inflation strengthened hopes of upcoming Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, while a strong outlook from chipmaker Micron boosted optimism around AI-driven demand. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 65.88 points, or 0.14%, to 47,951.85, the S&P 500 gained 53.33 points, or 0.79%, to 6,774.76 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 313.04 points, or 1.38%, to 23,006.36.
Asian equities advanced today as cooling US inflation data strengthened expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and easing tech concerns lifted sentiment on Wall Street. Hang Seng futures climbed 0.6%, Japan’s Topix added 0.5% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 also gained 0.5%. Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 1%, reflecting broad optimism across global markets.
Meanwhile, the trends on Gift Nifty indicate a muted start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading near 25,933 level, up 60 points or 0.23% from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
00:00Every morning, the countdown begins for the markets with meticulous research and analysis
00:07designed to help you capitalize on the trading day.
00:12Beaming live from the CNBC TV18, Motilal Oswald Studio.
00:17Good morning, hello and welcome. You're with us on Bazaar Morning Call.
00:32We're coming to you as always from the CNBC TV18, Motilal Oswald Studios.
00:36I'm Surabhi Upadhyay with me, Nigel D'Souza and Reema Tendulkar.
00:40And guys, thank God it's Friday.
00:42Well indeed, but we've got a big trading session to get through and then you get into the Christmas week.
00:46So hopefully there is some cheer. It's been missing for the last few trading sessions.
00:51Indeed, it's been a sluggish week. The Nifty went and saw levels of 26,050, went down to 25,700.
00:58And ultimately, where we closed yesterday was exactly at that 50-day moving average of 25,810.
01:05So let's see where we go from here. Global queues are upbeat, but the BOJ decision is awaited.
01:09Before the BOJ decision, I think one thing I will say that maybe we can learn from President Trump.
01:15We need those executive orders that give those extra holidays.
01:19So now he said that the U.S. government is going to be shut one day before Christmas, that's the 24th, and one day after, which is 26th.
01:25We need those orders for Diwali, for Christmas, for New Year's, for our market for sure.
01:30At least first Jan.
01:33It's a long list.
01:34It's an outstanding complaint.
01:34It's a long list, but we can do with some of that, even around Diwali, absolutely, and Christmas.
01:40All right, but let's get to, of course, the action of the day.
01:43And the action actually was on the positive side.
01:44Finally, Wall Street managed to snap out of its slump.
01:48Yesterday, we had all the indices close higher.
01:50There you go.
01:50I have them on the screens.
01:51And actually, the NASDAQ, the tech part of the market, pulled back rather smartly, thanks to Micron.
01:56And I'll come back to that in just a bit.
01:57The other major positive catalyst was the CPI report for November, which was not hot.
02:03In fact, it was, can I say, cooler than expectations.
02:06So there you see November CPI, the headline number came in at 2.7 percent versus estimates of 3.1 percent.
02:13And even the core CPI number at 2.6 percent versus expectations of 3 percent.
02:18Now, there are the naysayers who are saying the data has not been calculated properly because there was government shutdown and they didn't have all the parameters.
02:24So there was, you know, some bit of estimation involved.
02:26We'll see.
02:27We'll see what the next report says.
02:29But for now, this was very well received by the market.
02:31Not just the equity market moving higher, bonds are moving higher.
02:34Yields fell between two to three basis points across the entire range, two-year, 10-year and even the 30-year bond.
02:40The 10-year is closer to about the 4.12 handle, 4.12, 1.3 handle.
02:45The dollar eased off a little bit as well after this number came in.
02:50It is, again, getting the market to believe that the Fed indeed will be able to deliver more rate cuts
02:55because inflation is very well behaved in the U.S.
02:58Now coming to the AI trade, which revived in a big way thanks to Micron yesterday.
03:03Micron shares, by the way, they closed up 10 percent.
03:06In intraday trade, they surged as much as 16 percent higher because not only has the company delivered on estimates in the quarter that they were reporting for,
03:14they're saying that there is plenty of demand for AI chips.
03:18In fact, Micron's CEO, Sanjay Mehrotra, said that the memory market is expected to remain tight even beyond 2026.
03:26And that really inspired confidence.
03:27And it gave enough reason for all the investments that companies, including Micron, are putting into chip-making capacity.
03:35Speaking of Wall Street action, actually Nike shares were very interesting because they fell 10 percent.
03:39They managed to meet expectations in the reporting quarter, but the outlook is a little tentative.
03:46And the China numbers for Nike are not looking good.
03:48Their sales are declining in China, Greater China.
03:50Plus, Nike has acknowledged that these tariffs are leading to some margin erosion and that the market did not like.
03:56So that was something interesting to focus on.
03:58Let's talk about central bank actions.
03:59So while the market is hoping for more Fed rate cuts coming forward, the cut was delivered by the Bank of England.
04:08ECB, however, managed to stay on hold.
04:11But today, as Reema is also saying, it's all about the Bank of Japan.
04:14If the BOJ hikes 25 basis points, as is the wide expectation,
04:19interest rates in Japan will be at the highest level they've been in three decades.
04:23So that's the big watch point.
04:25Now, for us, the market is still in a very, very narrow range.
04:28Only 400 points on the nifty, 28,700 on the downside, 26,100 on the upside.
04:34No breaking out.
04:35But some silver lining in the cash market, at least, FBIs have been buyers for two days in a row.
04:41Yesterday's buying was about 500 odd crores.
04:43It's not much, but we'll take it with both hands.
04:46Whatever we get, given the amount of $18 billion worth of selling, we've seen this year.
04:50Nigel.
04:51Well, that's right.
04:51You know, just to put some of those twos on the table, crude and the dollar index, they are well-behaved.
04:55From an India market perspective and a merchant market perspective, that's pretty good news.
04:59So those global indicators are in line.
05:01The FIs and the DIs, they were both buyers, which is actually good news.
05:04So the institutional part of flows, no worries out there.
05:08In yesterday's trade, there was some unwinding of positions, some lightning getting into the holiday week.
05:13So you had the nifty as well as on the nifty bank.
05:15There was some unwinding of, you know, open interest, some lightning ahead of the holidays.
05:20Well, what do the FIs do, though, you know, on index futures?
05:24Not too much, both on the long as well as on the short side.
05:27And the short positioning continues at around 92%, which is the highest we have seen in the last two months.
05:33But otherwise, the data coming in from the FIs is more or less positive.
05:37You want shorts in the system?
05:38That wish has been granted.
05:40And if you look at the other positioning, if you look at stock futures, yesterday, in fact, they bought, you know, more longs.
05:44They added more longs than shorts.
05:46If you're looking at the options data, well, they bought some calls.
05:49And on the writing side, they wrote an equivalent amount of calls as well as puts.
05:54So that's what the FIs did in the FNO market.
05:56Besides being short on index futures, the overall data points are not too bad.
06:01Moving to the levels that you're looking at on the nifty, well, the options are fairly active.
06:05So in yesterday's trade, there was some signs of writing at lower levels.
06:0825,700 put, 25,750 put, fair bit of open interest built up out there.
06:14And you see the premium as well.
06:15They declined in yesterday's trade, which brings us to the levels.
06:18Going by these strikes that were written, this is the important mark.
06:22You know, 25,650, 25,700.
06:25You know, if this level does hold out, you'll be fancying your chances that maybe, in fact,
06:29we could see some kind of a relief rally if we go closer to those levels.
06:32On the upside, the 26,000 becomes a bit of a resistance mark because that's where the 20 DMA is.
06:37And we've seen in the past 26,000, 26,050, that level has been getting rejected.
06:42Just one more point, you know, besides the levels, besides this 350, 400 point range,
06:47on a day-to-day basis, you have been seeing that the nifty has been making lower highs.
06:51And not just that, it's been making lower lows as well.
06:54So for today's trade, actually, you'll want it to break that.
06:57You'll want it to make a higher high and protect yesterday's low as well.
07:00So break that trend that we have seen all through this week.
07:03Moving to the nifty bank.
07:05Well, in yesterday's trade, it went to the 20 DMA.
07:07It couldn't conquer that.
07:08So that becomes a bit of a resistance mark on the upside.
07:11On the downside, the 50 DMA, that's a reference point at around that 58,400, 58,500 odd mark.
07:17The tech index as well will have a role to play today because Accenture came out with its set of numbers.
07:22And there's no big change in discretionary demand.
07:24And the management reiterated the overall spending remains consistent with last year.
07:28So no big, you know, uptake in terms of spending.
07:31And I'll keep an eye out on the tech index because that has been outperforming in the last two and a half months after underperforming for the majority of the year.
07:38So the Bank of Japan, that's going to be the big cue if they do hike rates, but they don't sound very, very hawkish.
07:45Global markets actually will believe there's a bit of a relief on the cards because the positioning is that you see a rate hike and maybe you don't hear a very dovish sounding Bank of Japan.
07:55Well, indeed. So we'll have to wait for the press conference by the governor of Bank of Japan because it seems like a 25 basis points rate hike could be priced in widely expected.
08:05But the question is on the future guidance. Does he signal further rate hikes maybe in April, June?
08:11What will the terminal interest rates look like?
08:13So if he delivers a hike without an aggressive forward guidance, maybe the street looks at it positively.
08:19So that's the big cue. Global markets are watching.
08:22And back home, the Sriram Finance Board meeting and secondly, ICIC approval listing that's scheduled for 10 o'clock and it's expected to be a good debut.
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