00:00I'll turn to you, Mike. What's on your mind as you watch how this market has traded? A nice bounce for tech, which really needed it.
00:06Yeah, we sort of got to exhale a little bit. So the big pressure has been on the AI trade. Micron gives you a reason to have some of that pressure relief.
00:14And then I don't think there was really a bearish case surrounding CPI, but a downside surprise, you know, however many grains of salt you take it with is still net positive.
00:23The bond markets had a sort of measured but positive response to that. That being said, I keep looking for this stall phase that we've been in in the market.
00:32Two months, we've been right in the same rates in the S&P as something that's showing economic anxiety building.
00:39And it's really not. It still seems to be a repositioning from crowded AI at a time when conviction in the long term AI story is starting to flag a little bit.
00:49So banks making a new high again today. You know, industrials participating. It feels as if there's some comfort about the macro.
00:57The question is, what does that leave us with? Because it's been very messy, this rotation.
01:01You have had some relief hit some parts of the market that were lagging for a long period of time.
01:06I don't believe really in the changing horses that a full gallop and a new leadership group starts to kind of drive a bull market into next year.
01:15So maybe it's just a resting phase for tech. And as I said yesterday, NVIDIA trading down to a market multiple.
01:21MET is down to just an S&P average multiple. So it seems as if, you know, maybe the market is just kind of biding its time here for a little bit.
01:30I wouldn't really bet against levitating for the next seven and a half trading days, at least part of that, as the seasonals will tell you is likely.
01:37Micron was much needed today. We see it on the board here up better than 10 percent.
01:41I mean, really, as we've been saying throughout the day, kind of just what the doctor ordered for this trade.
01:45Without a doubt. I mean, it's certainly the memory side of this equation.
01:49It's kind of a mixed blessing because that area is is really hot, but it's also a cost for everybody else.
01:56And you have NVIDIA. OK, it bounces 2 percent trading at a price it got to in late July.
02:01You know, so it's just tough for the index to find its way higher when it's been this kind of low momentum phase.
02:07I mean, even today, there's more new 52 week lows than highs on the Nasdaq.
02:12That hasn't been the trend, but it is the case today.
02:14So I guess after a six month blistering run that we had from April to October, maybe this is just that kind of payback phase.
02:23It's not really hurting anybody. We're up 15 percent year to date on the S&P 500.
02:27That's following to up 20 percent years. It's really not something anybody should complain about.
02:32But there is a level of frustration and it looks to me like a market where people were nearly all in coming into December.
02:40They didn't have to buy more, didn't really have to chase it.
02:43We're hoping the market was going to, you know, get them out at higher levels to exit the year.
02:47Maybe it still will. But I think that's why you see the church.
02:51I still just take part of the fact that there's not a lot of stress on the economically sensitive parts of this.
02:57among them.
Comments