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00:00Well, what did you see today from this announcement by the central bank that was surprising?
00:04It clearly...
00:05Depends on who it surprises.
00:08I don't know.
00:09It didn't surprise me much, honestly.
00:12No, no.
00:13No.
00:14No, no, no, no.
00:15Because I thought there was a high chance that...
00:18The 1% bans wouldn't be maintained.
00:22And Bauxili and Caputo had already been warning about the reserve purchases.
00:28They were coming.
00:28You know?
00:31No one should be surprised if they read the signals that they're giving off.
00:39The only thing...
00:40I mean, they're going to buy reserves for two months.
00:42They've been repeating it every week.
00:44If it really surprises you, because you're looking for something else, right?
00:48That's fine.
00:49But remember, remember this point.
00:51They emphasized it a lot, didn't they?
00:52Bauxili, but both Mille and Caputo said several times,
00:55So why do you insist that we buy reserves against issuing pesos against?
00:59And they insisted on it.
01:00That was six months ago, Julieta.
01:03They've been saying it for two months.
01:04They even published it in a central bank document.
01:11They say it in a conference.
01:13But anyway, the thing is that, of course,
01:15nobody wants to hear it.
01:16Nobody listens to them.
01:18I mean, we're all in another story.
01:20I mean, Bauxiri said several times,
01:24Now comes the stage of we're going to buy reserves.
01:28Well, and then how did he analyze...
01:30The period of excess pesos.
01:36Okay.
01:37What's more, the others that spoke about it with Ezequiel Berghoff from CL,
01:41He published it.
01:42Yes?
01:43He has published it in his notes, too.
01:45The sang is going to start buying reserves starting in 2026.
01:49Well, I mean, this is not a surprise.
01:52What I do surprise you with is that the...
01:56Bans are going to be adjusted by inflation instead of 1%.
02:01Well, that is new.
02:05That's the only new thing.
02:07Everything else is something that had already been said.
02:12Why do you think that?
02:13But why?
02:14Sure.
02:14Why do you think Balsillia tied...
02:17The change of the ceiling or the update of the ceiling to the inflation of the previous two months?
02:24Why did he do that exercise?
02:26Why did he do it?
02:28Well, because, first of all, the market was not believing in 1%.
02:33It was already operating.
02:34I mean, look, this is...
02:38The new value of the band, not of the bands.
02:43It is not something very different from what is discounted in the futures market.
02:48Exactly.
02:48Yes.
02:49I will put it to you in other terms.
02:51Now the band is going to be adjusted for inflation.
02:53How much will it be?
02:55More or less starting at 25, 21, 19, blah, blah, blah.
03:00And going down.
03:01Correct.
03:02That gives you a band that goes up 22%.
03:04Okay.
03:06In 2026 versus 13, which was the scheme of 1.
03:13And when you go to the dollar futures are, how much is it?
03:1623%.
03:16Correct.
03:18Yes.
03:18Today we were looking at a chart that maps precisely with the RFEX.
03:21Yes.
03:21That's correct.
03:23Wasn't at 13.
03:24Okay.
03:27And let me put it another way.
03:29One year interest rates weren't at 14, neither they're at 30.
03:33I'm out.
03:35So neither are they what I read on Twitter, right?
03:38Because now with the higher bands, the carry rate is going to disappear.
03:42No.
03:43I'm not saying it's going to settle down a little bit, but rates are still above the new upper
03:49band.
03:50Okay.
03:50Do you understand?
03:51Yes, yes, yes, yes.
03:52Because the upper band is 22 and the interest rate is 30, which gives you eight inch in dollars,
03:59right?
03:59Which is more or less how everything is being arbitraged.
04:02Okay.
04:02Now the question is right now, there will be, you know, because they monitored the demand
04:08for pesos.
04:09There is more demand for pesos because it's December, January will probably be there too.
04:13But then the demand for pesos will naturally start to fall in Argentina.
04:16How are they going to correct that?
04:19Are they going to sterilize the pencils they use?
04:22No, of course.
04:24Since it goes up now in December, it goes up more seasonally, right?
04:29In December, it goes up a little more than average.
04:32And in March, it goes down a little more than average.
04:34But that's a difference, not a trend.
04:40I mean, they're not talking about the seasonal demand for money, right?
04:49Right?
04:49They're going to change something in March.
04:51Do you understand?
04:52They're saying, hey, in 2020, Argentina will be dollarized to the yield pump.
05:00They bought almost $35 million, spot dollars, exchange rate, hedges.
05:07Well, that means that the demand for money didn't want pesos.
05:10Well, since there aren't going to be elections now, they're not going to demand $35 billion
05:15from you again.
05:16It's going to be much less.
05:18Since that's going to be much less and Argentina isn't going to be dollarized as much, that
05:23means that the monetary base, the demand for money is going to grow, is going to grow.
05:29Yes.
05:30And if the demand for money is going to grow, let's say we're not going to see dollarization
05:35levels of $4 billion per month.
05:38We're going to see $1,000, let's say.
05:41Okay.
05:42Then the demand for dollarization is going to drop from $4,000 to $1,000.
05:46That's $3,000, $3,000 times $12,000 is almost $35,000 million, which is going to reduce the
05:53demand.
05:54So that means less dollarization, more demand for money.
05:57And if there's not so much dollarization, there's going to be an excess of dollars.
06:02And that's where the central bank comes in buying.
06:05Excellent.
06:05Well done.
06:06That's why they link the demand.
06:09The central bank will decide if there's an excess, there will be an excess if dollarization
06:14decreases, if dollarization goes down, it's because the demand for money is increasing.
06:18Understand that or not?
06:19Correct.
06:20Very correct.
06:20You understand, Vivi.
06:21Perfect.
06:22Yes, you understand that.
06:23Okay, but let me ask you this.
06:24So how do we tie this into the activity?
06:27Because today there are many economic actors who say, look, there is a little more inflation
06:32because you remove subsidies, but activity is dying.
06:35Activity will reactivate with more demand for pesos and less dollarization.
06:38Look, with that, I mean, this year activity was quite weak, but some sectors held up a little
06:47et cetera without gray areas and without extreme dollarization.
06:52It seems to me that 2026 could be a good year, 2026 in terms of activity.
07:01You see, I tell you, no, I project four and a half growth in 2026.
07:05I mean, again, ask me about the whole.
07:07Uh, whole of 2026.
07:10There are people who can't make ends meet.
07:13There are sectors that aren't seeing it.
07:16I mean, that's it.
07:17I mean, the important thing about 2026 is that there is no crisis.
07:21If there is no crisis like there was in 2025 when there was a pretty strong crisis.
07:27Yes.
07:28Due to uncertainty.
07:28If there is no crisis and we are more focused on doing business, uh, think a little bit.
07:35I mean, don't look so much at politics, you know, and it's already on the horizon a little
07:41bit.
07:42You know, not going to be a dollarization that's going in the world because an evaluation is
07:48coming because I don't know what, because it's coming.
07:50And by lowering the level of nervousness a little, that's going to mean less demand for
07:55dollars.
07:56There's going to be more business.
07:57And well, of, of course, greater demand for money, greater activity, more stabilization.
08:03Sure.
08:04More stabilization, more investment.
08:05You say?
08:06Yes, it's not Disneyland either.
08:08You know, the dollar's not going to go up.
08:11I mean, if it goes up, that's it.
08:12There's no problem with the dollar going up.
08:14It's not an issue.
08:14Right.
08:15What I'm saying is, it's not an issue.
08:17The point is, when the dollar rises, you're earning big money, but you can't stop it.
08:22Okay.
08:23And how do you see, uh, how do you see inflation?
08:25Did you get stuck there?
08:27No, no, I didn't.
08:28Stuck or not.
08:30Well, yes, you did get stuck, but you've stuck, but I'm listening to you.
08:36I mean, like, that your voice flows, but your face doesn't.
08:38Oh, okay.
08:40I don't know, Cara.
08:41Cara, you can correct the image with the audio.
08:43There it is.
08:44Now they're going to punch you again.
08:45And now I probably came out, but come out, you came out fine.
08:49I can leave you frozen on your side, and you'll be fine.
08:52Well, stop.
08:53Answer me this question.
08:54I have short hair.
08:56You're impeccable.
08:58Yes, you're fine.
08:58No, no, we can't say anything about Marl here, right?
09:01About his image.
09:02We're fine.
09:02All white.
09:04Well, Fernando, listen to me.
09:05What do you, Marl Associates, project for the inflation rate for the first quarter of 2026?
09:12How do you see it?
09:14First quarter, 19, more or less.
09:17For me, it's down.
09:19It's going to be below 2% and 20% for 2026.
09:23For the whole year and in the year.
09:28Yes.
09:29I mean, it's like we're just starting a new process.
09:34Now we have to keep monitoring that.
09:35Well, Argentina is not linear.
09:37The dollar is going to.
09:38It will go up at some point.
09:40It will go down at some point.
09:41It is not linear.
09:42Yes.
09:43The important thing about activity is that there is no crisis.
09:45Sure, there doesn't seem to be a crisis.
09:48I mean, no, it's not the crisis for why.
09:53Because if you have five months of crisis like what happened in 2025, the sectors that are doing badly and that are having a hard time reactivating, they go back to the square one.
10:04And there are sectors that are doing well.
10:09Well, the ideal would be for those that are lagging behind to catch up a bit.
10:13Well, that would be ideal.
10:15But, I mean, if you're in sector and you're sitting around waiting for the dollar to go to 4,000 so that you can gain ground, you're zis at a home.
10:24You're screwed.
10:26Well, yesterday.
10:26And I don't want to impose myself in a way of selling dollars because you're going to die with it.
10:35Why not sell them?
10:37Yes, yes, yes.
10:38I follow you.
10:39No, no, let's not do that.
10:40It was a great investment in 2025.
10:43But, oh well.
10:44Sure, it was a good investment.
10:47Right?
10:47If you bought dollars and invested them, if you bought them and saved them, I don't know if it was an investment.
10:52We can discuss that.
10:54In what sense, right?
10:56The one who keeps the cushion, right?
10:58We always calculate.
11:00I mean, you always calculate there so that the calculation gives you the, you know, look at what a good investment it was.
11:07No.
11:08The one who bought dollar bonds hedged, he beat everyone.
11:11Well, that's why, but it should be noted that you're talking about assets.
11:15Yes, and the one who bought dollars at 1060.
11:19In March, in February, he also did very well.
11:23He beat everything.
11:25Yes, correct?
11:26Okay.
11:27If you compare the two peaks and, yes, you see, but nobody sells at peaks, you know, no, no, it's like, the investment rankings always compare the peak with the ceiling.
11:39It's true.
11:41Look, I'm a real smart guy.
11:43And the truth is that buying dollars went well this year.
11:47That's true.
11:48Now, because I say, and it was a major crisis, well, now let's wait.
11:54Without any expectation of crisis and expectation of a good year, possibly dollarization will go down naturally.
12:06That doesn't mean that the dollar won't beat inflation.
12:09That doesn't mean that the dollar won't beat inflation.
12:10For me, it could beat inflation by 2026.
12:14Now, don't, don't stop, don't stay in dollars waiting for the big evaluation because it doesn't seem to be the view.
12:25It's not the scenario.
12:25How do you think the market will open tomorrow?
12:28How will you take this measure?
12:29It's positive.
12:29And tomorrow, it's obvious that the official dollar will go up a little bit because all the newspaper titles are going to widen their bands.
12:40They're going to devalue.
12:42And, you know, and those who are not up to date with the market who know that it's, uh, it's already overpriced.
12:50That's not that's not that's not.
12:51Of course.
12:52Yes.
12:53Eh, you know, they're going to buy dollars because they're going to get scared.
12:58What?
12:58Uh, but anyway, the dollar could temporarily go up a little.
13:02Bonds will go up.
13:04Stocks will go up because the gives you a bit of what the market is looking for.
13:09More exchange rate flexibility purchases of reserves by the central bank roadmap for purchasing reserves.
13:20And well, then, uh, if more or less the market settles after this little noise that there is,
13:28in a couple of days, the dollar will, uh, start to adjust to what is the strong and normal demand.
13:35Let me explain.
13:37Uh, it can go up.
13:39It can go down.
13:41I mean, it can go up.
13:42It can go down.
13:43But it is not going to go far.
13:45That is important.
13:46Exactly.
13:47No, don't think that raising the ceiling means the dollar will also rocket high.
13:50No, of course not.
13:51Yes.
13:52No, of course not.
13:52No, they are not raising it.
13:53They are raising the ceiling.
13:54They are not raising the dollar.
13:55That is important.
13:57Yes, yes, yes.
13:57Very clear.
13:58Now, I say it is the ceiling.
14:02Yes.
14:02Uh, I mean, they can raise the ceiling.
14:05And tomorrow, nothing can happen to the dollar.
14:08Well, it will happen because it is going to appear.
14:11The rumor is they added 10%.
14:13They're returning 10% extra.
14:15See?
14:15This is obvious.
14:16Argentina.
14:17Now, with this positive year that you see with optimistic eyes, and we imagine a country
14:23risk breaking through 500 points, do we have a chance or not?
14:27Uh, I think so.
14:29Yes, yes, I think so.
14:30You see?
14:32Now, now, the central bank is giving a little to this new phase of, well, we are going to
14:39buy reserves.
14:40We are expanding the bands a little.
14:44It is a bit what the market was asking for.
14:46You see, if in two months, three, you bought reserves, you floated a little more, and the
14:54market stayed there at 600 basis points.
14:56It is because there is something else, I think.
14:58Okay.
14:59Yes?
15:00Politics no longer matters.
15:02It is already Argentina's problem, I think.
15:05Right.
15:06Okay, that is well thought out.
15:07I will take it into account.
15:09Well, then we have to wait for a dollar.
15:10That is going to go back and forth, or that is going to move, that is going to float much
15:14more than now, and starting in January, the restrictions on companies will also be lifted.
15:21For dividend payments?
15:23Yes.
15:24Which close in 2025.
15:25Ha ha ha.
15:26That is, they will not pay dividends until March.
15:29And that will be...
15:30Followed by...
15:31Tulietta.
15:32What?
15:32This has been known for a year.
15:35Since January 1st.
15:36But the question is, can this give the market a little more volume?
15:39And then, because what we have been saying is that there may be more demand in the exchange
15:43market.
15:43Yes?
15:44Okay.
15:45I mean, there may be more demand.
15:46There may be more volume in the market.
15:49Yes, there will be more float.
15:51But if I say here...
15:58What does the market imagine?
16:00The market imagines that this change in the band will increase the dollar by 10% tomorrow.
16:07No, no.
16:08No, I don't know.
16:09No, I really don't see it.
16:11And, well, there will be a little supply there.
16:13It may move a little.
16:16But, I mean...
16:17The market has already incorporated that dividends...
16:20That dividends...
16:21The dividend CPO is already...
16:25Discounted, you say?
16:26Yes, that's it.
16:27And yes, notice that...
16:30The market already had this de mima.
16:33This meaty anti inside the future dollar.
16:36Why, Hana inside the...
16:38Correct.
16:38I mean...
16:40Yes, it's true.
16:41Around there.
16:42Now it says...
16:44No, it's actually going to go up a little more than the future dollar.
16:46Well, but if...
16:47If you look at the line of the future dollar in the new band, it's practically the same.
16:52Yes, it maps.
16:53Excellent.
16:54Well, thanks for helping us understand.
16:57I give you cautious optimism.
16:59As I always say, neither chaos nor Disneyland.
17:02I love it.
17:03Thanks, Fernando.
17:04As always, I send you a big hug.