00:00On the demand side, there's cash that needs to be put to work, right?
00:05I mean, there's that's going to keep spreads tight.
00:08Absolutely. And what we've seen the experience from 2025 and even going back to 2024 is that periods of spread widening ultimately have proved short lived.
00:16And so really what we expect for 2026 is a pretty constructive backdrop.
00:20It's going to be full of dispersion across sectors, even within sectors, across parts of the asset class.
00:26But we're not anticipating widespread market disruption.
00:29And I think probably the one thing that we'll tweak on the margin for 2026 is that we're really leaning in more to this idea that if you're allocating to credit,
00:37you should be allocating for carry and income and yield, not because there's room for spreads to move tighter because they're already quite tight.
00:44And actually not because we think intermediate or long and interest rates are going that much lower.
00:48So don't rely on that potential total return boost from tighter spreads or lower rates, but still have a compelling yield opportunity in corporate credit.
00:55By the way, Maureen, will we see issuance from companies that see CDS what looks like big jumps, even if they're still low absolute numbers?
01:05So I think you have to kind of bifurcate the two markets.
01:08The CDS market can be driven by a number of different factors, including how banks hedge their risk.
01:13You know, these obviously were big capital providers to a lot of the names that you're probably alluding to there.
01:17The answer is, yes, there is still access. Our market is is quite efficient at pricing risk and supply overhang.
01:25I would equate it back to when you saw the big six U.S. banks during the TLAC expansion years,
01:31that kind of 2017, 2016 to 2019 cycle where you saw the debt footprints of these big U.S. G-CID banks expand pretty dramatically.
01:40You know, the net result of that was that spreads trended wider in those names relative to the index.
01:44But, you know, these companies still efficiently fund in our market on a quarterly basis post earnings.
01:48And we would expect the same for a lot of these these technology companies where you're seeing a little bit of noise in the CDS.
01:53Obviously, there are some names that have fared better than others.
01:55But for the most part, again, these are high quality credits with unfettered access to our market.
02:00And it doesn't all have to come in dollars either. Right.
02:01You've seen some cross currency transactions. I would expect to see more of that as well next year.
02:06But, you know, there's other capital market solutions as well.
02:08ABS, CMBS, you know, bank solutions, other private credit solutions, including some of these sponsored back structures.
02:14So I think it's going to take all forms next year, not necessarily just about unsecured bond issuance.
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