00:00Everyone around the table at the FOMC agrees that inflation is too high and that we want it to come down
00:06and agrees that the labor market has softened and that there's further risk.
00:10Everyone agrees on that.
00:12Where the difference is, is how do you weight those risks and what does your forecast look like?
00:17And ultimately, where do you think the bigger risk is?
00:21And, you know, it's very unusual to have persistent tension between the two parts of the mandate.
00:27And when you do, this is what you see.
00:30And I think it's actually what you would expect to see.
00:34And we do see it.
00:35Meanwhile, the discussions we have are as good as any we've had in my 14 years at the Fed.
00:39They're very thoughtful, respectful, and you just have people who have strong views.
00:44And, you know, we come together and we reach, you know, a place where we can make a decision.
00:51We made a decision today.
00:52We had, you know, 9 out of 12 supported it.
00:55So fairly broad support.
00:57But it's not like the normal situation where everyone agrees on the direction and what to do.
01:02It's more spread out.
01:04And I think that's only inherent in the situation.
01:07In terms of what it would take, you know, we all have an outlook in terms of what's going to come.
01:12But I think ultimately having cut 75 and, you know, the effects of the 75 basis points will only begin to be coming in.
01:20And as I've said before a couple times, we're well positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves.
01:25We'll just have to see.
01:26And we will get, as you know, quite a bit of data.
01:29I should mention on the data, as long as I'm talking about it, that we're going to need to be careful in assessing, particularly the household survey data.
01:40There are very technical reasons about the way data are collected in some of these measures, both in, you know, inflation and in labor, in the labor market, so that the data may be distorted and not just sort of more volatile, but distorted.
01:59And that's really because data was not collected in October and half of November.
02:05So we're going to get data, but we're going to have to look at it carefully and with a somewhat skeptical eye.
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