00:00Bitcoin's trying to bump up to up on the year, and that's around $94,000.
00:04And then above that, it's got $100,000 resistance.
00:07So it's got walls of resistance.
00:09So it might be doing okay, but it's reminding me of how human nature markets will never change,
00:14like you mentioned with some other companies that just, they get way too extended in bull markets.
00:19They expect it's never going to stop.
00:20And then when the music stops playing, the tide goes out.
00:25And to me, it's just getting started.
00:27So one thing that's really got way oversold is strategy.
00:30MicroStrategy is a great lead indicator.
00:32It got up to about 50% below its 200-day moving average.
00:36That was way oversold.
00:37It needs to bounce.
00:38Bear markets bounce.
00:39But by the end of the year, there's key things that need for Bitcoin to go higher.
00:42Number one, the stock market has to go up.
00:43It's so highly correlated, and that's getting a little dicey.
00:46Volatility has to stay low.
00:47120-day volatility around 11%, and the stock market's the lowest if it ends there since 2017.
00:53And the VIX has to go down.
00:54The VIX volatility index, right around 16, the 200-day average is almost closer to 20.
00:59So all that stuff has to line up.
01:00And I think cryptos are leading the way lower.
01:03And I'll end with this.
01:04The Bloomberg Galaxy crypto index is down about 15% this year.
01:07So to me, we get lucky if crypto, if Bitcoin does not become the Grinch for Christmas.
01:12I'm still sticking with it's going to be the Grinch.
01:13So what's going on over at American Bitcoin?
01:17Of course, to start the week, we've been seeing really brutal declines, down about 16% on Monday,
01:21almost 40% of a decline yesterday.
01:24Now we're seeing it a bit in the green.
01:25But what was going on?
01:27Well, one key thing I'll point out about, to me, in the macro, is what's happening in space.
01:31My colleague, Andrew Silverman, penned an article recently, and his headline was,
01:35we have a resting president who's now a Bitcoin billionaire.
01:40That's never happened in history.
01:41And that's what's really shifted in the space.
01:43This is all related to the Trump, the Trump administration, and Trump administration officials.
01:48And that's what really pissed me, got a lot of crypto people upset.
01:51In the past, they're getting away from the system.
01:53Now they're dependent on it.
01:54And if they're buying it and they're supporting prices, they're supporting the Trump administration.
01:58So that's what's shifted.
01:59And all that stuff is mean reverting.
02:01Strategies in one example.
02:03The problem is there's probably a lot more room on the downside.
02:06There's still plenty of these millions of cryptos that are worth billions of dollars that track nothing.
02:10Yet we do have things like stable coins.
02:12There's about 300 billion of those.
02:13Those are pretty good.
02:15But to me, this is just getting started.
02:16And again, the bottom line is they're a great leading indicator for risk assets going up, and they're heading lower.
02:21Mike, step back here in your global commodities coverage here.
02:25What's your 2026 theme?
02:27What are you asking people to pay attention to?
02:28I'm really worried about the no man's land we reach in gold and silver.
02:36I mean, they're major bull markets.
02:38But there's only a few times in history we've got this stretch versus most moving averages.
02:44And this is when I turn off my fundamental hat and put my risk management hat.
02:47You have to be very careful here.
02:48And to me, the indication for commodities, by crude oil going down and gold going up, is we may be set up for another deflationary cycle after inflation.
02:56That means stock market potentially getting a kind of an indication of our gold that it's going to head lower next year, which is what makes me worried about all commodities, particularly the economic sense of one like copper and crude oil.
03:08And crude oil is a bear market.
03:09I mean, what's your read on copper prices?
03:13Well, it's having a good bounce now.
03:15We have some major supply constraints.
03:17The man from China, is it there?
03:18And we also have U.S. tariffs.
03:20So right now, about $5.40 a pound in U.S.
03:23I'm really afraid.
03:24Sure, number one key thing, just like Bitcoin, the stock market has to go up for copper to stay resilient.
03:28If we get it just to drop back to its 200-day moving average in the stock market, that's going to be a pressure factor on copper.
03:34So to me, the key thing is this industrial metal is going up with gold and all metals, but the risk is next year it reverts a little bit lower, as indicated by very low stock market volatility.
03:43There is only one way, and that is to go up, which means pressure on copper.
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