Global Growth Shows Resilience Amid AI Boom and Tariff Risks, OECD Says

Global economic growth is proving more resilient than expected, according to a new OECD forecast. The Paris-based organization says an accelerating AI investment boom is helping offset the drag from rising U.S. tariffs, reduced immigration, and slowing fiscal support.
The OECD warns, however, that global growth remains vulnerable to renewed trade tensions and a potential correction in AI-driven market optimism.
The outlook projects global growth easing slightly from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, with a rebound expected in 2027. The U.S., China, Japan, and the Eurozone all see slight upgrades, driven by strong labor markets, corporate investment, and technology spending.
Trade growth is expected to slow as tariffs take full effect, while inflation is forecast to normalize across major economies by mid-2027.
Watch the full analysis as the OECD outlines how tariff shocks, AI disruption, and shifting monetary policy could shape the global economy over the next three years.

#OECD #GlobalEconomy #AIInvestment #USTariffs #EconomicForecast #WorldEconomy #Inflation #TradeTensions #APT

Transcript

00:00Last edition of the 2025 Economic Outlook, OECD Secretary-General Matthias Korman will present the report.

00:08Our projections point to a moderation of global GDP growth to 3.2% this year and 2.9% next year,

00:16followed by a small rebound to 3.1% in 2027, as I already mentioned.

00:21But compared with our economic outlook from June,

00:24these projections are up by 0.3 percentage points for this year and unchanged for next year.

00:30However, our outlook highlights key fragilities on the horizon.

01:00From elevated trade restrictions to policy uncertainty and concerns about supply chain security,

01:07to rising public spending pressures from increased defense requirements

01:13and the rising economic and fiscal impacts of population aging,

01:17and vulnerabilities associated with high financial asset valuation,

01:22such as for AI-related investments and crypto currencies.

01:27Bring it up, Howard.

01:29This is our great Secretary of Commerce.

01:33So, if you look at that, China, first row, China.

01:39In the United States, growth is expected to slow from 2% this year to 1.7%.

01:59Next year, a higher tariff strike full effect,

02:02while for 2027, we project a small pickup to 1.9%.

02:07China's growth is projected to slow from 5% this year to 4.4% next year,

02:34and 4.3% in 2027 as a result of the impact of higher tariff rights on exports to the United States,

02:41as well as continuing adjustment in the real estate sector and filing fiscal support.

02:48For Japan's economy, we project...

02:55For Japan's economy we project robust growth of 1.3% this year and 0.9% in both

03:222026 and 2027, supported by resilient domestic demand.

03:28In the euro area, growth is projected at 1.3% this year, 1.2% next year and 1.4% in 2027,

03:36as increased stride frictions are expected to be offset by capital spending from the

03:42recovery and resilience facility and higher defence expenditure.

04:09The second advice to all government reminds to work harder, work together bilaterally

04:13and multilaterally to find the best possible ways to make our international trading arrangements

04:19fairer and function better in a way that preserves, to the greatest extent possible, the economic

04:25benefits of open markets and rules by global trade.

04:28Thank you, Secretary General.

04:30I'd just like to remind journalists following us online they can ask questions using the

04:34chat function.

04:35I'll ask Asa and Louise.

04:39Well, I'd love you.

04:40Thanks for being here.

Global Growth Shows Resilience Amid AI Boom and Tariff Risks, OECD Says | APT

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