00:00Let's get more analysis and bring in Dr. Akshay Dioris, research scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading in southern England.
00:10Thank you for joining us, Dr. Akshay. This situation here, it's clearly deeply tragic what is happening.
00:17People point to climate change, clearly the monsoon season's adding its own special layer of chaos as well.
00:23And then on top of that, certain local officials, the finger pointed at them.
00:27It is a very deadly cocktail that has happened.
00:33That's absolutely right. See, we need weather systems to cause damages like this.
00:38And at the time, we have the monsoon, which is known to bring a lot of rainfall.
00:42But on top of that, we did have two tropical cyclones brewing in the same region.
00:48On top of that, we have climate change. And on top of that, we have a very bad local response when it comes to disaster management.
00:55This makes it a very deadly cocktail, I'm afraid.
00:57So in terms of what happens with the weather, with what you can see, what you can predict,
01:03is there anything that we can actually do to stop that happening?
01:07I mean, clearly, in a sense, we're at the hands of nature, aren't we?
01:11That's right. We are at the hands of nature.
01:15But at the same time, weather forecasts have improved quite a lot compared to what we had, let's say, a decade ago.
01:21So now we are in a situation where we are able to better predict these cyclones or even monsoon rainfall, let's say, for a couple of days in advance.
01:29So what really matters is when we have a very clear forecast of heavy rainfall, how do you really prepare?
01:35Do you really take out people from, let's say, most vulnerable areas where landslides are expected or where flash flooding will happen?
01:42Absolutely. So these tiny responses are very important.
01:45And unless and until we have them correctly, we are not going to stop the damage, especially deaths.
01:50So that changes the emphasis from the weather and the natural disaster to the organisational problems and the issues, perhaps, where the local officials didn't do the job, as some people say it should have been done.
02:05It's one of the issues, Dr. Akshay, that there isn't enough money to actually spend on the things that need to be done in such places.
02:16As ever, it's the poorest in the world to get hit the worst when things go wrong.
02:23Absolutely right. I mean, if something like this would have happened, let's say, in the UK or in the US, the response would have been better, which means the number of tests would have been much less.
02:33So this is a very complicated problem because, you know, on one hand, you need to make people aware of the disasters.
02:39So you need to invest in, let's say, a real-time information dissemination system or real-time warning dissemination system.
02:46And at the same time, you also need to ensure that you have got adequate place to keep people whenever these are, you know, these damages are going to happen.
02:54So poor countries are really, really hard hit whenever disasters like this happen.
02:59And I'm afraid this is not going to stop.
03:01It sounds like what you're saying is that people need to start to wake up to the fact that they need to change how they live, change how they structure their lives,
03:09change how they build their towns and cities in order to cope with these natural disasters.
03:13That's right.
03:16Because, see, we cannot stop natural disasters.
03:18But let's say if you are constructing houses just next to a river or next to mountains, which are vulnerable to mudslides or flash floods,
03:26then you would certainly expect people to die because of, you know, all these disasters.
03:30And we know that climate change is intensifying the occurrence and intensity of extreme rainfall events, be it flash floods.
03:37So the focus has to shift from, let's say, you know, just like talking about climate change to really dealing with it on the ground because we are seeing it happening.
03:46So you need to keep people away from vulnerable areas.
03:50And you have got the forecast to tell them that this is not the right time to stay where you are because you are in danger.
03:55Indeed, it needs to be not an emergency response, but a very cognitive response to what is actually going to happen and we know will eventually take place.
04:04I'm wondering now, Dr. Akshay, the situation on the ground, so much water.
04:09The possibility, which is horrible to consider, is that disease could follow next.
04:14And that is the next great emergency to happen, isn't it?
04:16That's right. It's all linked.
04:19It would start with, you know, heavy rainfall and then you would have flash floods.
04:24Then you would have a lot of mud in the region, a lot of water.
04:27You have disaster. You have diseases coming in.
04:29So that that becomes a big disaster because it starts from a hydrological thing and it becomes really intense.
04:35And the big problem is that it takes a very, very, very long time for things to get back to normal because you have to do a lot of cleaning.
04:42You have to, you know, improve or, let's say, repair the damaged infrastructure, be it roads or power lines or houses, and it takes quite a lot of money.
04:51So it's not going to be that straightforward when it comes to restoring lives back to normal, I'm afraid.
04:57I'm getting from what you're saying. There are two things happening here.
05:00There needs to be that response to the emergency situation right now on the ground, people in water, houses underwater,
05:06but also looking towards the future and constructing in the broader sense in a more, I don't know, in a smarter way.
05:16That's right, because, like I said, you know, all these things are not going to stop.
05:21Today, it's southern Thailand. Tomorrow, it could be some other country in South Asia because we cannot stop the monsoon.
05:26And we know that with climate change, you know, monsoon rainfall is going to become more and more extreme when it comes to, you know, heavy rainfall like this.
05:33So I think it's very important that we take lessons from disasters like this.
05:38We really start thinking about constructions, like where not to do constructions.
05:42And if we are basically in a situation that our forecasts are doing well, we need to ensure that forecasts reach to last, let's say, last mile on the ground.
05:50Like it really goes down to the people on the ground.
05:53And unless and until all this thing happens, I'm afraid we are not going to be able to stop deaths.
05:58Dr. ACDRS, thank you very much indeed for joining us, research scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading.
06:05Thank you, sir.
06:06And let's hope those people underwater in Asia are being helped in the best possible way they can going forward.
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