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In this Business Today and India Today TV market opening broadcast, anchor Abha Bakaya and Consulting Editor Shail Bhatnagar discuss the market's positive reaction to India's Q2 GDP growth of 8.2%. The Nifty 50 is expected to see a gap-up opening, while silver prices have historically crossed the ₹2 lakh per kilogram mark. The programme also highlights the introduction of the 'Health Security National Security Cess Bill 2025' in Parliament today. Additionally, the show features comments from Elon Musk on Nikhil Kamath’s podcast regarding H-1B visas and US tariffs. Market expert Avinash Goyal joins to analyze auto sales data and the upcoming credit policy.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Good morning and welcome to market opening on our collab show between Business Today and India
00:19Today TV just after 9 and we're here to get you all the news that you need to kick start your
00:23trading day. Let's take a look at what's making headlines this morning. It could be a gap up
00:28opening for markets with Q2 GDP growth far beyond anyone's imagination. The gift nifty is up more
00:34than 100 points. Asian markets, most of them red, could play spoilsport. The possibility of a ratings
00:41upgrade could also bring back a flood of foreign funds. Silver leaps past the 2 lakh rupee per kilo
00:50mark for the first time ever hits a new high in global markets as well. The price has almost
00:55doubled this year with the recent surge supported by renewed concerns of tightness in the global
01:00market. Gold also crosses the 1 lakh 30,000 per 10 gram level.
01:09Primary markets on an overdrive with 15 IPOs hitting the street this week. E-commerce platform
01:15Misho leads with a 5,421 crore issue. The SME segment is super active with 12 IPOs. A total of more than
01:237,000 crore is being raised by companies. Investors are also watching closely with six
01:27listings on the calendar this week.
01:33Government to bring in two bills to retire the GST CES on tobacco items. The health security,
01:39national security CES bill 2025 will be introduced in parliament today. Additional levy will also be
01:45imposed on tobacco products by amending the Central Excise Act. The new levy will replace the
01:50compensation CES under the GST regime. No changes in effective rates.
01:58Elon Musk opens up in Nikhil Kamath's podcast. Accuses some companies of gaming the H-1B visa
02:04systems. Says visas should not be about reducing costs but plugging the talent gap. Also says Donald
02:11Trump loves tariffs and he tried to unsuccessfully dissuade the president on that front.
02:20All right let's take a look at how markets are set up this morning and first and foremost we'll be
02:30waiting the reaction to those GDP numbers kicking it out of the ballpark there with the numbers coming
02:36in way above anyone's expectation. I think the highest view was about seven and a half when we
02:41saw numbers come in at a six quarter high of 8.2 percent. So that's really the big picture for
02:47you this morning. In other data India April to October fiscal deficit up about 10 percent year on
02:52year as well. July to September earnings of course will be kicking off as well. So that's some of the
02:58macro data we're tracking but let me welcome in Shell. Shell good morning. I'm not sure if we'll really
03:03be shaken by anything that's happening in Asian markets this morning. I know China's had a bit of a
03:07wobble but it's our own GDP numbers that are front and center anticipating now a fresh round of brokerage
03:13upgrades. Abha good morning first of all a very warm welcome to everybody in December. This is the start
03:23of a Santa rally. This is going to be a gap up most probably a trend day in which the Nifty opens with a
03:32gap of 122 points and then progresses steadily up throughout the day. So a fresh closing high
03:39stocks like HDFC Bank, LNT, Reliance, M&M, Adani Pots are looking extremely extremely strong on the
03:47charts. These are also in fact market leaders at least the four that I've talked about and you'll
03:52see a strong move coming into the digital space especially the defense sector. Look at Bharat Forge
03:58and of course the underlying momentum is very very strong for pharma as well. So that's the broader
04:04structure. A gap up, a trending day and Nifty closing at its day's eye, a record close. Abha.
04:10I'm surprised you didn't mention auto this morning. Shell we've been talking about it all week
04:14anticipating December sales numbers but let me also let me also welcome in Avinash Gaurasakar
04:20joining us this morning. Avinash first on the index of course your view and then yes we're kick-starting
04:25December so are we poised to see some traction along certain fronts whether it be on the back
04:31of those GDP earnings, rate cut hopes and of course auto sales figures.
04:44Avinash good morning. If you can hear me wanted to get your view on the setup this morning as well as
04:49what you're focused on as we kick-start December.
04:54Yeah Abha I can hear you.
04:55Okay. Alright. Let me go back across Avinash in just a moment. Let me come back to really what
05:04we're looking at in terms of the trade setup and pull up some of the other pockets of action for
05:09you. Auto of course is in the news in terms of November auto sales data. We've also got some
05:14select counters that are likely to be in the news. Eminem, Ashok Leland. Keep an eye on some of these as
05:18well in particular from the auto pack. Tara Motors for instance. Tara Motors and Eminem have written to
05:24the union power minister as well talking about a proposed exemption for petrol cars under the 909
05:30kilograms mark for the upcoming carbon dioxide emission regulation saying this would be a setback
05:36for the country's EV journey. So that's something that's ongoing. Eminem has been in news for other
05:41reasons as well and of course we'll keep an eye on sales data. Now when it comes to some of the other
05:47pockets, OMCs remember on the softening of crude have also been seeing a good run-up and they're
05:51continuing to look bullish. So that's on OMCs as well. We've been seeing some buying at lower levels
05:56when it comes to IT, metals, telecoms. So some of these pockets could continue to see further traction
06:02building up as well. Let me see if Avinash can hear us now. And Avinash, I wanted to get your view
06:06on the market set up as we kickstart the trading week as well as a fresh month.
06:17Okay. I think there's a problem with the audio there with Avinash. So we'll leave it there. But we're
06:22counting down to opening right now. And let's take a look at what else is going to be in focus. I think
06:31last week, Shell, there was a lot of pushback from retail investors talking about how action was
06:37still focused on the index, on the heavyweights. So when it comes to this week, while we're still
06:42looking at new highs, remember last week we did hit some new highs, but then we were extremely
06:46sideways and facing resistance at higher levels. Do you think we're going to manage to break that on
06:50the index? And then, of course, we'll talk about wider participation.
06:58None of the mid-cap, small-cap, mid-cap select indices are coming anywhere near scanners that show
07:04the momentum is getting into them. Frankly, it's a large-cap-led rally and that's how it is for the
07:11moment. Okay. Let's see how it goes. There's this earnings discount of about 10-15% in all large
07:17caps. Once that's paired, as far as price is concerned, then maybe the focus will shift to
07:22mid and smalls. Frankly, nothing is coming on all of my scanners that I put in as far as mids and
07:28smalls are concerned. So we'll have to be satisfied with the blue chips hitting fresh record highs.
07:35All right. Let's take a look at the kind of stocks that we have in news as well. We're,
07:40of course, watching out for a spate of listings and a spate of IPOs that are coming in at this point
07:44of time. Of course, we've got a whole host of individual stocks that will also be in focus.
07:51Defense stocks, as Sheryl mentioned as well, will continue to be in the limelight. And
07:54Defense Secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh on Friday said the Ministry of Defense will be seeking a 20%
07:59rise in defense modernization component for the coming financial year. That's double
08:03than the usual 10% rise in previous years. So keep an eye on those defense stocks. They'll continue to
08:09be in focus. They also signed letters of offer and acceptance with the U.S. government for sustained
08:14support of the Indian Navy's fleet as well of helicopters and a lot of other things. Approximate
08:19value of 80 billion coming in there. So we continue to see very strong momentum in terms of order book
08:25building up on defense stocks there. Let's, you know, we've seen a lot of action also when it comes
08:32to hospitality names, when it's coming to news, when real estate counters. And let's take you through
08:37some of that in terms of hospitality. And keep an eye on this because it looks like the government may be
08:42considering infrastructure status for the hotel industry. And that's going to be huge. Remember,
08:47we're also counting down to budget now. So some of these key reforms will be much awaited and watched
08:53by various industry pockets. Hotel industry will definitely be eyeing this in particular. And in
08:59addition to that, we're of course, constantly getting news on realistic stocks that are planning
09:04further outlay as well. We've had a whole host of them in the news last week, this week as well.
09:10We've got Lodha developers planning to launch 15 housing projects worth about 140 billion. That's in
09:17the second half of the fiscal to expand its business. There you have opening trade, 3.5% higher,
09:2326,288 on the Nifty right now. We were expecting a marginal uptick and that's come in, but it's not a
09:29runaway rally on those GDP numbers. It's kind of a steady start, but clearly not too much of an impact
09:34of the low numbers that we've seen on factory activity in China. So we did see China's factory
09:40activity unexpectedly contracting, missing estimates. Asia's quiet this morning, limited impact of that
09:46on our markets today. But on the GDP numbers, we're also not seeing a major runaway reaction right
09:52now. Auto is steady. Remember, it's the start of December. We're expecting very strong, very positive
09:57sales momentum coming in on the auto pack. So keep an eye on some of the individual movers
10:02there as well. Let's pull up Tara Motors. Let's pull up Eminem. Ashok Leland also. The company's
10:07UAE Arm has incorporated its wholly owned subsidiary in Saudi Arabia. That one continues to be in the
10:13news as well. Let's pull up the Adani counters. Adani Enterprises has said it's going to invest
10:19as much as 5 billion in Google's artificial intelligence hub in Vishakhapatnam. Let's pull up Adani
10:25Enterprises for you. Up about a half a percent uptick coming in there. Let's also take a look
10:29at some of the smaller counters. Actually, before we do that, let's pull up the OMCs and see where
10:34they're at on softening crude prices. Any sustained uptick coming in on some of those OMCs. Let's take
10:38a closer look there as well as potentially on some of the telecom stocks where we've also seen
10:44action building. OMCs looking strong. Our oil and gas index is up about half a percent. Adani
10:49Total is up about half a percent. And we'll pull up some of those telecom names for you as well
10:54after this. Shail, what are you tracking on opening?
11:00Well, Abha, the gap up is in place and HDFC Bank is the top traded counter. This is a very,
11:06very big positive. Remember, this is the heaviest weighted stock that we have.
11:11Metals are doing fine. Hindustan Zinc and National Aluminium, which we've pointed out
11:14all of last week, they should do well. State Bank in top shape, I see it above, you know,
11:21getting into four digits maybe this week. And of course, Hero Motors, fresh record high,
11:27two-wheeler stock, 1.2% higher. M&M, fresh record high, best four-wheeler stock, 3780. And of course,
11:35no stopping Mutut Finance because of gold. And Federal Bank, again a gold play. And in the pharma
11:41space, Loras Labs doing immensely well after a fresh record high. This is what I'm watching.
11:46Abha, advanced decline ratio, fairly positive for the start. 1,800 shares in the green,
11:526.25 in the red. This is an easy 3s to 1.
11:57We're definitely seeing very strong advanced decline ratio this morning. It's looking good
12:02in that sense. Remember, markets also trading at really good levels at this point. You know,
12:07we're at all-time highs, frankly. 2.6289. It looks like 2.6300 is just a few minutes away,
12:13Michelle. There doesn't seem to be any doubt of that coming in. Let's talk about that for a moment
12:18because when we're talking about topping these all-time high levels, what is the next level
12:23you're looking to close at?
12:24Abha, I would imagine 2.6350 is within sight because, you know, the trend day will start fairly
12:36shortly. In the first 15-17 minutes of trade, when you have the first candle of the 15 minutes,
12:43then, you know, institutional guys will sort of move out. Retail will move in. So, let's hope
12:4826.350 is where we end today. And that's the beginning of a fresh Santa rally on the markets
12:57led by frontline counters. Nothing is happening in mids and smalls.
13:01All right. So, mid and small cap, I'm afraid, retail investors will still have to wait for
13:04their turn, even though the IPO street is looking really busy. So, those interested in the primary
13:08markets have a lot to choose from. Avinash, let me come across to you and hopefully we'll solve
13:13that audio issue. What is your take on the markets as we kickstart the last month of the year?
13:19No, I think, good morning Abha. I think markets are going to be obviously in an uptrend largely
13:25because GDP numbers have been much better than what the street expected. And I think now the
13:30next trigger for the market would be the December 5 credit policy. I think markets have already
13:35built in a 25 basis cut. And I think if that happens, then I think that's going to boost the
13:40sentiment further. As Shail mentioned, you know, you're going to see a lot of banks,
13:45NBFCs, housing finance companies, obviously doing a pre kind of rally. And I think it's going to be
13:51definitely benefiting the corporate sector because that means that the fourth quarter numbers also
13:56should be reasonably good. In fact, we are looking forward for a very strong Q3 number because the
14:01full impact of GST, rural demand, you know, lower interest rates would obviously get reflected in
14:06better corporate performance for the quarter three period. So, I think net net the market
14:10should rise. But I think you could see a little sustained kind of rise with a little bit of
14:15slower, you know, volatility. But I think net net, I think it's also going to be a stock because market,
14:20as you mentioned, hotels, hospitality, capital goods, autos, auto components are sectors, you know,
14:26which are definitely drawing a lot of money from the funds as well as from the ultra-echerunization.
14:32All right, great. Sterling and Wilson is in focus. Let's pull that up for you. Remember,
14:36they have got an order from Adani Green Energy. So, let's pull that one up for you. That's
14:43definitely buzzing in trade. And metals seem to be on a tear this morning across the board or is it
14:49specifically on copper? You know, is it across the board, Shell, that you're finding this action
14:55when it comes to metal majors? Well, Abha, one interesting thing about the nifty metals index,
15:03I'd like to point out, it is well above even Friday's high. So, not only is there a gap up,
15:10there is also sustained activity on the long side. So, it's across the board. Look at Vedanta,
15:181.5% higher. National aluminium, we've already marked. On the copper space, Hind copper is doing
15:24pretty well, 2.5% higher. And of course, JSW steel. So, it's ferrous, non-ferrous aluminium all up.
15:31Okay, so metals across the board. Avinash, let's get your take here because we've been seeing that
15:35steady rise. We've been seeing it on precious metals too and that's continuing. They're on fire.
15:40And metals across the board, aluminium, copper, everything is moving this morning.
15:47So, I think metals definitely look to be in a much better shape. I think domestic demand is strong
15:52and I think global metal prices, especially for aluminium, have started rising. So, I think in
15:57that perspective, Hindalco definitely looks interesting. I think my sense is that the third
16:03quarter and the fourth quarter could possibly see some improvement. Of course, they had a fire in
16:07their plant. So, there could be a little bit of pressure on their margins, at least for the Q3.
16:12We believe that, you know, once these one-off things are taken out, I think JSW could be a
16:17good bet. The other ferrous counters, which we are positive, are typically Tata Steel and Hindustan
16:22Zinc. You know, these companies have been doing pretty well. Even on the copper side, Hindustan
16:27copper could be looked upon because copper prices have also started rising quite, you know, sharply. So,
16:31net-net, I think it could be a good market for positional traders going forward.
16:35Anything in the pharma pack? Avinash, Natco is up again today, up about 3%. I'm pulling it up just
16:42because we've seen some of these individual movers come up from behind. Do you feel that this could
16:46be a dark horse? Yeah, I think my sense is that, you know, I think they're a large player in the US
16:52market and I think the stock has risen quite admirably. So, Natco definitely categorizes as a
16:58small US-based, focused kind of pharma company from India. And I think other larger names could be
17:05Lupin, could be Torrent Pharma. We have been telling our clients to, you know, do a little
17:10bit of nimling in the pharma side because we feel that once the US-India trade deal is finalized,
17:14which is expected very soon, you could expect a very strong run-up on the pharma side,
17:18especially for companies which have got a large exposure on the US market. So, I think Lupin
17:23and Natco Pharma could definitely be acquired, but from a slightly medium to long-term kind of
17:28timeframe. Let's pull up those Adani counters again. Adani Green is lower of, at this point
17:35of time, but very heavy volumes. And Sterling and Wilson on the back of that order is moving
17:40up 4-5%. That's the one that's really looking good and very high on volumes as well this morning.
17:45Shail, what's on your radar?
17:51Well, Abha, I think the first 15 minutes of selling pressure has been absorbed, which
17:56essentially means that all those guys who took a long punt on the market on Friday in anticipation
18:02of good GDP numbers, that selling has been absorbed. Now, 26,300 looks to be doing pretty well.
18:11So, banks are doing extremely well. Bank of Baroda and Bank of India is something that is on my
18:18radar as also Canara Bank. A bit of profit booking in AU Bank and Axis Bank in early trades,
18:26but nothing to be worried about. I'll keep an eye out on State Bank of India. And of course,
18:30Hindustan Zinc. Remember, Hindustan Zinc is the biggest producer of silver in India,
18:35India, which is rocketing. So, Hindustan Zinc should be watched on the long side. I think
18:42500 is what we've already seen. Avinash here would be a better place to give us an idea.
18:49Okay. I've lost Avinash's audio there. We'll come back to him in a moment. And lots of IPOs. Let
19:09me just take you through that. We've got MV Electrosystems, Equus, Vidya Wires, Misho,
19:17Prism, for instance, Sudeep Pharma. So many IPOs and listings this week. So, lots to track there.
19:23That's also keeping the markets on their toes. And Bajaj Auto sales numbers. Let's take a look at
19:30them coming in. November sales, 453,273 units. That's up 8% year-on-year. Bajaj Auto November,
19:39two-wheeler sales also up 3% year-on-year. Total CV sales up 37%. That's a big number coming in.
19:4737% year-on-year. So, we've got overall sales for November up about 8%. Two-wheelers up about 3%.
19:56And CV sales up about 37% for Bajaj Auto. Those are year-on-year numbers coming in. Let's pull up
20:02the stock for you. See how it's reacting to the November sales numbers. And remember,
20:06we were expecting a boost to continuing run up post the GST reforms as well as, of course,
20:12the impending rate cuts on some of these consumer names. Let's take a look at how some of the traction
20:16is building up on a Bajaj in particular. And let's pull up the stock for you as well.
20:21And we've seen some of our traction building up on two-wheeler hopes too. But it's not actually
20:26the two-wheeler numbers that are driving the show at the moment. It's more the CV numbers.
20:30Not too much move on the stock just as yet, Shell. But clearly, momentum when it comes to auto
20:36is clearly on.
20:42Yes, Abha. I would imagine that you will see a lot of activity on Mahindra and Mahindra,
20:48Maruti in particular. Let the numbers come. Hero Motors has already hit a record high.
20:54So, four stocks in the auto space which should demand your attention. M&M, Hero Motors, Maruti,
21:04Ashok Leyland and maybe just maybe Aisha Motors. So, these are the ones that I'm looking at because
21:11the charts are phenomenally strong.
21:13Okay. That's almost all of them, Shell. But if you had to narrow it down to at least two,
21:20which two would it be?
21:25Okay. Maruti and Hero Motors.
21:27All right. Taking a clear view there on some of the strategy going forward. Hero has been in the
21:33news for a lot of its new upcoming launches, as has Maruti. In fact, a spate that's planned for
21:38the new year. We'll perhaps take a deeper dive into some of those auto counters on the upcoming
21:43show. But Hero right now is up about a percent or so in trade as we await the latest numbers there as
21:49well. All right. And another global news. Remember, President Putin is also visiting
21:55India this week. There'll be discussions of India purchasing Russian fighter jets and a missile
22:00defense shield. So, we'll, of course, be bringing you any updates on that front. And we'll leave you
22:05with the latest look at silver as well. Silver has crossed the two lakh mark and it's just spiraling.
22:13The global silver surge continuing. And look at the kind of rates that we're seeing on the
22:17comics overnight. Gold prices are also seeing that kind of an uptick as well. Silver is definitely
22:23shooting ahead and is on fire right now. Avinash, closing comments from you as we eye now some
22:29amount of news when it comes to the trade deal or the Fed rate cut already. Avinash left us. But
22:34yes, the growth numbers have been intact when it comes to GDP figures. The government is reinforcing
22:41that we're on the track to achieve steady momentum. We'll now be eyeing, of course, the latest news from
22:46the RBI as well as the Fed. So, stay tuned. Lots more coming up. Thanks for watching.
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