00:00Let's talk about today's market. Yesterday, we saw a downpour in the share market. After
00:10taking oath of US President Donald Trump, we saw a big downpour on Tuesday in the Indian
00:16share market. After June 2024, Nifty had dropped below Rs. 23,000 in the intraday. This index
00:25fell to Rs. 22,976. However, when the business closed at around 3.30 pm, we saw a recovery.
00:32The increase of 99 points came here. Nifty closed at Rs. 23,045. If we talk about BSE
00:41Sensex, yesterday, there was a fall of more than 1200 points and it closed at Rs. 75,838.
00:50Today, Nifty opened at Rs. 76,114 and BSE at Rs. 23,099. After yesterday's downpour, the
01:00market seems to be rising. If we talk about the big factors of yesterday and today's
01:07recovery, what are the reasons? There is no doubt that the villain of the Indian market
01:14is the Trump policies. After taking oath of US President Donald Trump, the tightening
01:21and economic policies of US President Donald Trump are having a negative impact on the
01:29Indian market. The Indian market was already trading in a negative territory. Levels were
01:36going down. The sell-off was continuing. Whether you look at the FIIs or the investors,
01:43after triggering it in the market, the hope that has arisen today is that there is a bounce
01:50back after yesterday's fall. The SDFC results did a little support here, but I feel that
01:56the market trend is still in a downward trajectory. The impact of the budget is not being seen
02:03. In fact, if we talk about the reality counter, then from 1st January to 22nd January, more
02:12than 15% of the reality counter has fallen. So, the overall sentiment here is a little
02:18poor and Trump's policies have triggered it in a way and due to that, in the coming time,
02:24such as the export policies or the visa policy, which has been talked about tightening, all
02:32these impacts can take it to a negative sentiment.
02:37So, due to Trump 2.0, will we see more volatility in the market in the coming days?
02:43Absolutely, volatility can be high here and the way the decisions of the policies will
02:50start, the announcement that will be made in the future, if we look at it, then I feel
02:55that the territory of the market will be a little negative, but there will be a need for
03:00vix here, there will be a need for vix, there will be a big difference in the down and up.
03:03Absolutely, sir, when we did the live show of Sauda Khara Khara, you said that by
03:08March-April, the market can see the fall. So, one of our factors has been Trump, whose
03:13effect can be seen in the coming days. Apart from this, what are the factors that
03:18will affect the market in the coming days?
03:23Look, there is no doubt that FIIs are selling continuously, FIIs are not showing interest
03:28in buying, this is what has been seen here for the last 6-8 months.
03:32On the other hand, if we look at it, the way the investor is suffering a loss, a stop-loss
03:37is being triggered, the position of people is being lost. This is also a big factor.
03:42If we look at the third side, the earning of the quarter is now looking impactful.
03:47There are many results that are not looking positive. There is an example in front,
03:51Zomato is an example in front of you. At this time, there is a big fall in Sugi.
03:55So, the negative sentiment that has been created here can have a very big impact.
04:00But for now, I feel that in the coming time, earnings and geopolitical tensions and
04:06the policies of the Fed and the statements of Trump will depend to a great extent on
04:12taking the market towards negative sentiment.
04:15Absolutely. Sir, what do you think, the Union Budget which is coming on 1st February,
04:19can it be a bit of a life-threatening thing in the market? Can the market rise a bit at that time?
04:25Mr. Bhavra says that the burning lamp burns a little more quickly.
04:29This is the state of the market. The market is trying to survive on the expectation
04:35but I feel that even in the budget, there will not be any special surprise this time.
04:40And that surprise will be seen to be wiped out very soon.
04:44Wipe out means that do not expect more than what you are expecting,
04:48otherwise you can get hurt.
04:51So, I feel that in the sentiment of the market, there will definitely be a pullback,
04:55there is no doubt about it, but there will be no confidence.
04:58Sir, what are the sectors whose positive and negative impact can be seen on Trump 2.0?
05:05Let's talk about both of them one by one.
05:08First of all, if we go to the negative, then you can see IT here,
05:13export-based companies can be seen here.
05:16If we go towards the positive, then I feel that the sentiment of the market is bad here,
05:20so we should stop for a bit for positive sentiment.
05:23But yes, it is in this that IT and especially our export-based companies
05:28should definitely make a distance from them.
05:30You can see a lot of impact in them.
05:32And in the IT counter, there can be a sign of a bigger fall.
05:36Sir, you were talking about FIIs, so we have been seeing from the beginning,
05:40since the start of 2025, that there is a lot of fuss in the market.
05:44Now, the Trump factor has also been added.
05:47So, in this, do you think that the trust of FIIs in the Indian share market
05:51can be shaken even more?
05:53Because if we leave January 1, then by January 20,
05:56we have only seen the bickering.
05:58And by January 20, there has been a total of 51,000 crores of bickering.
06:03So, do you think that their trust in FIIs can be shaken even more?
06:08If you look at it, then from September and October,
06:12the confidence of FIIs has completely shaken.
06:14And after that, there was an announcement that they are waiting for the result,
06:18how Trump will come or what will happen.
06:20And when Trump came, then the relations that they have with India,
06:24they have also come to a red alert from somewhere.
06:27So, if you look at all these factors, then there is no confidence of FIIs.
06:30On the other hand, it is not that Trump's policies are only against India,
06:36but I think they are also very much against China.
06:38And if there is such a sentiment, then the confidence of FIIs is added to it.
06:43And it is clearly visible here that you can get more confidence in the bond yield.
06:47So, you will go towards the bond, not towards the stock market.
06:50So, that is why the bond is attracting more here.
06:53Plus, if you look at the US Treasury, then it is also getting a little attractive here.
06:57The investor is getting more there.
06:59So, I think that the overall sentiment is becoming a little negative for FIIs.
07:05So, sir, are there any announcements in the budget to increase the trust of FIIs,
07:09whose expectations are there?
07:10See, to increase the trust in the budget,
07:13you will have to reduce the target of fiscal deficit.
07:16You will also have to do expenditure,
07:18which can't be 2 and 2, 4, 2 and 2, 5.
07:22So, I think this is a factor from somewhere.
07:26Secondly, if you want to increase liquidity, then the risk of inflation increases again.
07:30So, this time, there is nothing special to please the FII in the budget.
07:35Absolutely. So, sir, what are you able to see?
07:37Can Trump 2.0 create difficulties for our Indian rupee in the coming days?
07:42When your show started today, I said that Trump is seen as a villain for Indian markets.
07:49And the reason for that is that if I try to write all the factors on a paper pen,
07:54then I get 5 negative factors and 1 positive factor.
07:58So, this sentiment is getting very poor from somewhere.
08:01Absolutely. So, sir, what strategy should investors adopt at this time?
08:06Because we have already discussed that these days there are no chances of positivity in the market.
08:11So, what strategy should investors adopt at this time?
08:14And because our investors have a lot of expectations regarding the budget,
08:19so before the budget, would you like to give a target to the market?
08:22Look, Mr. Bhawana, I will definitely share one thing with you about the market of this deal.
08:28You will remember that we talk about very limited investment.
08:31And when investment was talked about after Diwali,
08:35it was said that exposure on less stock and not to invest more than 30% of the money in the market.
08:40We have tried a lot to raise awareness through your program.
08:44Still, there is no attraction here.
08:47Earlier, I said that leave Diwali pick this time.
08:50Again, I said that leave the year-end pick.
08:52Now, I will say that we have to leave the budget pick as well.
08:55Because because of this pick, your picture is going to be ruined.
08:59And from somewhere, that sentiment is not visible in the market.
09:02But there is a market, there is exposure, there are stocks, there is investment.
09:06If we go here, then I think it is okay.
09:09You invest, but invest only 30-35%.
09:12Save 65% and 60% money.
09:15We will get more opportunities in the future.
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