- 2 days ago
B Scott Thoughts, he explains why the playoff path is clearer than ever.
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00:00So, I think that Texans fans need to understand, I want to make sure that it's just clear, right?
00:06I'm not talking down anybody here.
00:07I just want to make sure that it's clear that the path for the Texans has never been clear after they won that game on Thursday night against the Buffalo Bills.
00:16And I'm talking about not just the path to win the division.
00:18I think that's kind of obvious, right?
00:19You need to sweep the Colts.
00:21And then you also need to outdo them in the four games in between, playing them, right?
00:25You're going to play them this weekend.
00:26You're going to play them at the end of the season.
00:27There's four games in between there.
00:28Or at least match them, because then you would have, if you sweep them, then you'd have the tie break.
00:32Correct, correct.
00:33So, like, some of those things are clear.
00:35But I think what people need to understand is that there's a magic number and there is a magic combination of numbers, right?
00:43It doesn't just matter that you don't finish the season out 500.
00:46I think people need to understand that.
00:47Like, three and three is bad.
00:49Yeah.
00:49Three and three is Armageddon.
00:50Three and three, and now we're talking about all kinds of different scenarios that make it really, really complicated.
00:55But if you want to simplify things, the way to do it for the Texans is to go four and two to end the season, right?
01:01They got six games left.
01:03They got to go four and two.
01:04It doesn't matter as much the combination of four and two because the odds are still going to be, like, 60% or higher, right?
01:11As long as you go four and two.
01:13But once you start talking about the combination of four and two, that's when the probabilities start to change.
01:19It does matter who you beat and who you lose to.
01:22And so the way that I've done this and thinking about their last six games and who those actual five opponents are, but let's just call them six, okay?
01:31I've even tiered them.
01:33And if you look at where we are right now, the most valuable games that the Texans play going forward, as we sit right now, are the Chiefs and the Chargers.
01:43Because those are the teams that you play, obviously, and those are the teams that you're battling for a wild card spot.
01:48So you can obviously gain ground against them by playing them.
01:51The next valuable set is these two games that you're going to play against the Colts, the one that's coming up and the one to end the season.
01:58The least valuable is obviously the teams that are not a part of the playoffs, and one of them doesn't even play in your conference, right?
02:04And, of course, the Raiders are not a factor in the AFC right now.
02:08So that's the tier.
02:09Those are the value of games, okay?
02:11And so what does that tell you?
02:13Okay, it means that it's most important to win.
02:16Obviously, you need to win four, okay?
02:18But it's most important to win against the Chiefs, to win against the Chargers, and then, of course, those Colts games.
02:25You start thinking about division games.
02:26Oh, you can take it for granted.
02:28Hey, we could split.
02:29You know, talking about either one of these teams, talking about sweeping the other is a little ambitious, right?
02:34If the Colts think they're just going to sweep the Texans, and if the Texans just think they're going to sweep the Colts.
02:38Yeah, another thing coming.
02:40You might, but that's pretty ambitious, right?
02:42So if you take that for granted, that you're going to maybe probably split against your division opponent, then you're looking at the more valuable games against the Chiefs and the Chargers.
02:52And I feel like those are ones that you absolutely have to have.
02:56And this is the first, I told you guys this in the break, this is the first time I'm going into a game, the first week leading into a game where I can say, hey, if they lose this game, I still got hope.
03:08I said during the break that I wouldn't bat an eye.
03:10I'd bat an eye.
03:11Okay, good, because I was about to be like, we don't have a fight right now, do we?
03:13But at the same time, I'd still walk away with my held hung high.
03:18Like, if they play bad, we'll talk about that, right?
03:21And that could be concerning, right?
03:22The offense can't move the ball.
03:24If for whatever reason, obviously this Colts offense is really good.
03:28If they're able to pick apart the defense, we'll have arguments about it.
03:30Like, the way they lose will matter.
03:32But simply losing the game won't matter to me as much with that Chiefs game on the horizon and knowing that, you know, you got two cookie cutters in between there and obviously the Chargers game after that.
03:44Those are the value games.
03:46It feels like you have three tiers of games.
03:47You got, like, really the tough games by all accounts, which is your two Colts games, your Chiefs game.
03:53You've got the, you know, should be easy games as much as you can say in the National Football League versus the Cardinals and the Raiders.
04:01And then you got that middle game where it's like, could be one, could be the other in the Chargers.
04:05Yeah, but really, the tiers are more about easiest path to get in.
04:09Sure.
04:10Top tier is just Chiefs and Chargers.
04:12Yeah, period.
04:12So, let's do this real quick according to the Athletics Playoff Simulator, okay?
04:18And already granted that we talked about you need to go four and two.
04:22Let's say that the Colts sweep you, that you lose both Colts games.
04:26Oh.
04:26But you win all four games in between.
04:29So, you beat the Chargers, the Chiefs, and the Cardinals and the Raiders.
04:33You're, according to the Playoff Simulator, your odds to make the playoffs are at 83%.
04:38Look at that.
04:39Okay?
04:39So, you feel pretty good about that.
04:41So, in that sense, if you're going to win every other game, so you're taking for granted that you're going to win every other game,
04:45the Colts games almost don't even matter, okay?
04:49Now, if you do that with the Chiefs and the Chargers, let's say that you win every game except the ones that's the Chiefs and the Chargers.
04:57That dips down to 60%.
05:00Yeah.
05:01Right?
05:01So, that tells you just right there.
05:03That's the top tier.
05:04That those two games are more valuable because if you lose those games, but you sweep the Colts for pride and whatever else,
05:10and this thought that you're going to win the division, never mind the fact that the Colts is the last game,
05:16and so you're waiting until the final week to decide if you're going to even be able to win the division.
05:20But, again, you lose to the Chiefs and the Chargers but beat everybody else, and now your odds are at 60%.
05:27So, they just went from, what, 80-something to 60.
05:30So, that tells you the value.
05:31Now, this is the curveball that I threw out there that's just chef's kiss, but at the same time would worry the, you know what,
05:39the bleep, I almost cussed, the bleep out of you.
05:41Thank you for not doing so.
05:42The bleep out of you if this actually happened.
05:44But if you beat, the simplest route would be to just beat the good teams,
05:48and that would be the Colts both times and the Chiefs and the Chargers.
05:52And then if you lose to those cookie cutters, if you lose to the Cardinals and the Raiders, you're in.
05:57Your odds, according to the playoff simulator, go up to 96%.
06:02Yeah.
06:02So, that shows you how valuable both sets of games are, the Chiefs, Chargers, and then, of course, both games against the Colts.
06:10Now, obviously, losing to the Cardinals and the Raiders would open up a whole other can of worms.
06:15And imagine the two weeks of radio that we would do.
06:17We would be so concerned.
06:18We would be so worried.
06:20And there would be no confidence going into that game against the Chargers on the road and certainly against the Colts at the end of the season.
06:26But that would be the surest thing, the surest route to the playoffs would be to beat the good teams,
06:32and then you could afford to actually lose those two games against the teams that don't matter.
06:35From the A-3-2, Reggie's on cloud now with all these percentages.
06:38Damn, Skippy.
06:39Because I think it leads to fun conversation.
06:41And the thing about numbers is I love them, but I think we also still need to bring them into the real world.
06:47I think there are knock-on effects with particular games, one of those being the silent killer in all of this.
06:52And I hate to say it because I think that their team looks kind of dopey, but if they are not,
06:57the Jacksonville Jaguars over there can mess up your whole fun.
07:00And I think that I hear you when you were talking about the you would still have hope if they lose this game to the Colts,
07:07which I think you should, right?
07:08It just means that your margins are thinner against a Kansas City Chiefs team that you'd be playing on the road, outdoors, at night, in December.
07:17That's not really – I don't love those portions of it.
07:20But then also I think the knock-on effects of that is if you give the Colts more wins, they play you in week 18.
07:26Week 17 they play the Jags.
07:28Are you giving the Jags an easier path to getting that victory that they need on top of an already pretty easy final schedule
07:34to where they might have more wins down the stretch to push you further, right?
07:38Like I think that I'm getting into like endgame, red string.
07:41Nah, but that's all valid.
07:42Conspiracy stuff, but I think it all is valid.
07:44All of that is valid, which is why I do think that I walk away with my head held high if they were to lose to the Colts in this upcoming game.
07:54But I do think it is important like on this stretch where we're talking about they need to finish 4-2 to get those four as quickly as you can, right?
08:02So like win this game.
08:04You're leaning on the last game of the season to be the fourth one.
08:06That's dicey.
08:07Right.
08:07So if you take care of business in this game, right, and then you take care of business against the Chiefs, there's two right there.
08:13And then lo and behold, you've got these cookie cutters on the back end of that, right?
08:18Now you've got the Cardinals and the Raiders.
08:20You could handle business right there and then actually be able to afford, actually be able to afford to lose your last two games of the season
08:27and still have a really good chance of making the play.
08:29That's the one that's 60-something, right?
08:30Yeah.
08:31And we can play that out real quick because we do have time.
08:34If you win the next four games, let's do that.
08:37So win the next four games, lose the last two, and your odds are 73%.
08:42All right.
08:43All right.
08:43So handle business early.
08:45And your anxiety would be less.
08:46And your anxiety is less.
08:47Some of us would be very grateful for it.
08:49You know what I mean?
08:50And by the way, that will put you on a what?
08:52They're on a three-game winning streak now, so they win four.
08:54That's a seven-game winning streak.
08:55You're feeling really good about a team winning seven streaks.
08:58Not only are you feeling really good, I imagine that talking heads are feeling really good.
09:01And more importantly, I imagine that teams that would be looking at that Houston Texans bull moving up and up,
09:07are a lot more afraid.
09:08Like, that throws some fear on some other teams if you win that as well.
09:14Yeah.
09:15So definitely, like, in terms of anxiety and the narrative and how you feel about the team,
09:21to get those four as early as possible would be ideal.
09:25But I do want to reiterate the point that all is not lost if they lose this game.
09:29Yeah.
09:29Because you have the more valuable game still coming up.
09:31That's fair.
09:32And the overarching thing is just quit thinking about the division.
09:36Yes.
09:37Just stop thinking about the division.
09:38Yes.
09:39Yes.
09:39Because the division at this point, as much as you might want to win it and as much as you might want to beat the Colts and all of that,
09:46it's at this point a lot less relevant.
09:49You're trying to get in.
09:50And there's a clear path to do so.
09:52Yeah.
09:52Also, is there anything in there?
09:55Because it feels counterintuitive.
09:57Would there be anything to you about getting into the playoffs and not winning the division?
10:00Like, it feels like that ends up being a little bit of a knock on the Texans.
10:03I wouldn't care.
10:03The only way you can get in is through the...
10:05At this point, given the season and how it started, I wouldn't care.
10:08Well, and even more so given the overall AFC landscape.
10:11And we've talked about this plenty, of how the hierarchy has flipped.
10:15The best teams in the AFC now are apparently going to be the Patriots, Broncos, and maybe the Colts or maybe the Texans.
10:23Like, you have a chance here, whether you get in through the division or through the wild card, to kind of make some noise here.
10:30Because, like, we watch Kansas City against the Colts.
10:33Not scary.
10:34We've seen them already beat, of course, a down Ravens team, but not quite as scary as they used to be.
10:40They just beat Josh Allen and the Bills.
10:42Not as scary as they used to be.
10:44So, the Texans have a really good opportunity in front of them.
10:47There you go.
10:47All right.
10:47What does the simulator do if you lose the first two and then win the last four?
10:5073%.
10:51I just wonder how things fall.
10:53Like, the butterfly effect of it, right?
10:55Like, you're putting in the Chiefs team, pushing them up.
10:57You're putting the Colts team, pushing them up, wins, rise.
10:59All of them in all of that, you know, in that morass that you're trying to, you know, traverse to try and get to the playoffs.
11:05But very, very interesting kind of thought experiment playing through all of it.
11:09Ultimately, you need four of these final six.
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