00:00As we learn prematurely from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the Chancellor has managed to double her headroom to £21.7 billion against her fiscal rules.
00:10By the way, she started her speech by saying that that was deeply disappointing from the OBR, a serious error that they released it early.
00:18I do wonder whether the OBR boss, Richard Hughes, is going to last in his post because this was unprecedented and, as you say, market moving.
00:25But beyond that top headroom figure, beneath it, it was quite a lot of bad news, actually.
00:32So growth downgraded, the welfare bill still soaring, living standards expected to rise more slowly than expected.
00:40And she's raising the tax burden to 38% of GDP. That's the highest since records began just after World War II.
00:49And it's going to be, I'm sure, plastered across the front pages of the UK newspapers tomorrow.
00:53If we look beneath that at some of these individual measures, as expected, she's implementing a stealth tax,
01:00so freezing income tax thresholds for another few years.
01:04That's going to raise £12.7 billion by 2031.
01:09If you look at some of the commentary on X, Paul Johnson, the former director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies,
01:15says this is a fundamental change to the tax system structure.
01:18It's creating millions of new taxpayers and higher rate taxpayers.
01:23So Reeves says this is fair. Let's see how it plays out politically.
01:27Then, as trailed, she's lifted the two-child benefit cap.
01:31That'll cost £3 billion by the end of the decade.
01:34It'll appeal to the left of her party.
01:36How much pressure politically can it relieve, we will ask.
01:40But, Anna, look, for the markets, what's crucial here is,
01:43she says this is going to bring down inflation and, indeed, as you say,
01:48you had yields falling through the speech.
01:51The gamble, though, is whether the market will wear the backloading of this fiscal tightening.
01:56And, as you say, markets were whipsawing throughout the speech.
02:00Are they truly convinced yet? We'll have to see.
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