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00:01Tensions continue to run frighteningly high on the border between Ukraine and Russia.
00:07U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian leader Vladimir Putin met for a video conference.
00:12But little, if any, progress was made.
00:15And the mood between the two sides remains acrimonious.
00:18Russia has an estimated 100,000 troops massed on the border.
00:22Vladimir Putin appears to be saying that he wants far-reaching strategic and security guarantees
00:28concerning Ukraine or else.
00:31So, on to the point we ask.
00:33Russia's troop build-up. Will the West stand by Ukraine against Putin?
00:50Well, thanks very much indeed for joining us here on the show.
00:52And my guests here in the studio include journalist and author Gezina Dornblut,
00:57an expert on Russia and the post-Soviet world.
01:01Gezina points out that Putin has already shifted the focus of the debate.
01:06It's not at all a looming war, but a war that has been going on for nearly eight years.
01:12Also with us is the military expert and blogger Thomas Wiegolt.
01:17He says, even without actual military action, Putin again demonstrates how he can provoke
01:22serious disruption in the NATO alliance.
01:26And a very warm welcome, too, to Roman Goncherenko,
01:30Ukraine expert from Deutsche Welle's Eastern Europe desk in Bonn.
01:34And Roman argues that Russia is not going to start open warfare with Ukraine,
01:39at least not anytime soon.
01:41The West should therefore adopt a hybrid approach and offer Ukraine a real EU perspective.
01:48Interesting stuff. Plenty to talk about.
01:50Let's get going with Gezina first. I think the media in the West are full of it.
01:55They're saying that there's very credible evidence that Russia has, as we've heard,
02:00this huge army massed on the border, 100,000 forces were told.
02:05The big question is why?
02:08I think it's the aim is to threaten and to shift the focus of the debate from the fact
02:16that we already have a war ongoing.
02:19We have a puppet regime in the so-called popular...
02:28..the region in Donbas.
02:30And another aim is to bring Joe Biden, US president, to the table
02:38and just to bring more attention to the problem.
02:44You say to bring more attention to the problem.
02:46How serious is the problem?
02:48I mean, you know, Berlin's Tagesspiegel newspaper is typical for many in the West.
02:53The views that are being stated, it is saying we are staring into an abyss.
02:58That sounds pretty serious this time around.
03:00Well, it's not seriously more troops than it has been in April.
03:05And I think that a new escalation is not so likely, although you can't exclude it.
03:13But I think in difference to Crimea, you should ask why Russia should escalate
03:19and why should Russia invade into Ukraine.
03:23And I think that this high emotional factor we had around the peninsula of Crimea,
03:30it simply does not exist.
03:32And also it's not a matter of popularity of Putin by another war and maybe a victory.
03:40But the aim is just to destabilize Ukraine.
03:47Okay.
03:48Let's see.
03:49Let's hear what Roman Goncherenko in Bonn has to say.
03:51I know that you keep your finger on the pulse of developments in your home country, Ukraine,
03:56the country where you were born.
03:58So what is the Ukrainian perspective here?
04:00Is this a moment of truth?
04:04Well, first of all, of course, it could be a moment of truth.
04:09But at the moment, I think fears of an all-out war between Russia and Ukraine are somehow not realistic.
04:19Because I think Putin's point is to start talking with the West about what should become of Ukraine.
04:28Should Ukraine become integrated with NATO or not?
04:31Because we had this promise at the NATO summit in Bucharest in 2008,
04:37when NATO said Ukraine and Georgia would one day become NATO members.
04:42And since then, nothing happened.
04:45We have no date.
04:46But Putin is trying to prevent that.
04:48And this is what he wants to talk about with Biden and with all maybe most important Western countries like Germany or UK.
04:56So this is what he's trying to achieve now.
04:59In the short term, I think he's trying to incorporate Ukraine again into a new Russian empire that he's trying to build.
05:08And at the moment, I think we should start thinking how we can prevent that.
05:14And this is what my idea is.
05:17If we start to think about what will come in one, two, three or five years, the problem will not disappear.
05:25So if the West thinks we can sit and just say that we support Ukraine, but Ukraine will not be integrated into Western structures, then we will still have a problem.
05:35Because Ukrainian do not want to be integrated into the Russian empire, whatever it is called.
05:41So the West should think about how to help Ukraine and how to solve this problem in the long run.
05:46So what's the recommendation?
05:48And the only solution is EU membership.
05:50This is my idea.
05:52Repeat for us, Roman.
05:54I think the only solution for this problem in the long run is to offer Ukraine EU membership.
06:00This will give Ukraine a chance to say, OK, maybe we will not aspire to be NATO member because this is something NATO cannot actually do because this will mean a confrontation with Russia.
06:12No one wants that.
06:13OK, let's bring comments if you go to him.
06:14So I think we have-
06:15So I think-
06:16What do you make about that, CJ, that proposal that Roman has just made?
06:18Well, I think it doesn't solve the problem.
06:20On the one hand, of course, Russia is testing NATO's resolve.
06:24That's quite obviously.
06:25And NATO is much more prepared to deal with that on its northern flank than on the southeastern flank.
06:33As to Roman's proposal to bring Ukraine into the EU umbrella, we shouldn't forget that the EU as such also has a mutual defense clause, which in itself is even stronger than the NATO defense clause.
06:49It hasn't really been invoked so far.
06:53France did invoke it once after the Bataclan terrorist attacks, but only to respond.
06:59And that's one reason why German soldiers are in Mali, in Africa.
07:03But it hasn't been tested.
07:05And I think to offer an EU perspective without all the other problems solved wouldn't change much.
07:13It is widely said that Vladimir Putin is at the moment trying to test the mettle of the US President Joe Biden.
07:22Is that how you see it?
07:23Not only of the US, but also of NATO as a whole.
07:27There's really a problem for NATO as they have no real unified response so far to what's going on there.
07:38We have to remember that the promise of a NATO membership for Ukraine in 2008 was under US pressure.
07:46It wasn't the wish of Germany.
07:48It wasn't the wish of France.
07:50And that's why the office stands, but nobody knows when it will be fulfilled.
07:55Well, I have to add, it was the wish of Poland.
07:58It was the wish of the Baltic states.
08:00So, it is not like it was just on the wish of the US President.
08:04I see it differently.
08:05Agree, agreed.
08:06And if you ask Eastern European countries now, they would support such a move.
08:09But I'm not advocating NATO membership for Ukraine now.
08:14What I'm advocating is that we think strategically and we will look into the future five or ten years ahead.
08:22And there is no way Ukraine problem is going to disappear.
08:26This is wrong if the West thinks that it will just be a buffer zone between Russia and the West.
08:33And we can all be happy.
08:34This will not work.
08:35Ukrainians have proved that.
08:37Kizina, a quick word about all that.
08:39Yeah, I agree.
08:40Absolutely.
08:41And I mean, we have to think what's the basic problem.
08:44And the problem is that Ukrainians are afraid of Russia and that's for good reasons.
08:50And what happens now at the border just proves that they have good reason to fear Russia.
08:56Well, what we have seen is another meeting between Presidents Putin and Biden.
09:00It didn't seem to have achieved too much, but it did give us a feel for the level of mutual dislike
09:08between these two old adversaries, these two old enemies.
09:15President Putin has achieved one thing.
09:18Personal contact with U.S. President Biden.
09:21Good to see you again.
09:23Putin wants to be taken seriously.
09:26The recent escalation on the border to Ukraine is a test for the U.S.' new administration.
09:33The two already met once, in Geneva in June, to test the waters.
09:39The atmosphere back then was surprisingly relaxed.
09:42But for the matter at hand, both sides have become entrenched in their positions.
09:47In dialogue with the United States and its allies, we will insist on the elaboration of specific agreements
09:54that would exclude any further NATO moves to the east,
09:58and the deployment of weapons systems that threaten us close to Russian territory.
10:06That's Putin's red line.
10:07And this was Biden's response shortly before the video conference.
10:13I won't accept anybody's red line.
10:16Biden has threatened stringent economic sanctions in conjunction with Western allies,
10:21and has promised further military assistance for Kyiv.
10:24How successful is U.S. support of Ukraine?
10:30Well, let's take that question to Roman in Bonn.
10:32How successful, Roman, has the U.S. been as an ally of Ukraine?
10:37Well, very successful, I would say.
10:40Well, we had a phase immediately after 2014, after the annexation of Crimea,
10:45where the U.S. was very reluctant under the Obama administration
10:49to support Ukraine militarily, I mean, to send weapons.
10:53When Trump came to power, this changed, and Ukraine became, for example,
10:59anti-tank missiles, javelin, and rifles, some smaller weapons, which are not offensive,
11:06and they are not dangerous for the Russian army or whatever.
11:10But it gave Ukraine a sense of support that it very much needed.
11:14At the moment, we are facing more of the same.
11:16So the United States will be delivering in the coming days more weapons to Ukraine,
11:21smaller weapons, smaller arms.
11:23But Ukraine, of course, would like to see more.
11:26Ukraine would like to have Patriot, anti-aircraft missiles.
11:30And this is something that could worry Mr. Putin very much.
11:33So I don't think we will see it in the coming future.
11:36It's interesting. I'm worried, Mr. Putin.
11:38You say my feeling is a little bit, because, you know,
11:40the fundamental thing that's going on here is that Vladimir Putin senses
11:45that the West has very little answer to his power games,
11:48and that doubt is dominating the situation at the moment.
11:53I totally agree.
11:54And I think what Roman said that Putin might be worried,
11:59I don't perceive it as negative.
12:01I think it's good if Putin would be worried, to be honest.
12:06And the problem is…
12:10Go further, please.
12:11I beg to differ in that moment.
12:14Because I think it's no use to have a worried or even Russia who fears
12:23or has reason to fear an attack, which is, of course, utter nonsense,
12:29because NATO isn't going to invade Russia.
12:33But this feeling or conveying this feeling of fear is something you don't want
12:40with someone who has a nuclear arsenal and who is more or less on your doorstep.
12:46And as much as I can understand Russia saying, we don't want any rockets
12:53or some kind of weapons that can reach Moscow, on the other hand, I'm living in Berlin,
12:59I don't want any Russian artillery, rockets, missiles that can reach Berlin within short notice
13:06as those based in Kaliningrad.
13:08So, if you see the Russian arguments, you might put on the table the same arguments from the Western side.
13:16And it's important, if I may add that, we must be very clear that we have somebody who started
13:24and somebody who reacts.
13:26And in case of NATO in Eastern Europe, it's simply a fact that in 2014, Russia annexed Crimea
13:34and started the war in Eastern Ukraine.
13:37And as a reaction, the NATO put its troops in a rotation, on a rotation basis into Eastern Europe.
13:45But the big question, I mean, is Biden, are the Americans ultimately willing to go to war,
13:52to adopt a military position to undertake?
13:54They are not, but that's not necessary.
13:56I think the solution or the proposal and what Biden said these days during the video conference
14:03that he made very clear that the price, the costs for Russia,
14:08if he would invade Ukraine again right now, the costs would be high.
14:14Okay, Moscow has a large force on its border with Ukraine,
14:18and the Russian side insists that it's only there to defend Russian territory
14:23at a time when tensions in Europe are, as Moscow puts it, off the scale.
14:29The military units deployed again by Moscow in the past few weeks look menacing.
14:34According to the Secret Service, they're comprised of as many as 100,000 soldiers, tanks and artillery.
14:40In Eastern Ukraine, Russia-backed separatists and the Ukrainian army have been battling for control of the region.
14:50The conflict hasn't been resolved, despite efforts from the international community.
14:57Due to the recent deployment of troops, some in Ukraine fear the worst.
15:03Our intelligence service analyzes all scenarios, including the worst ones.
15:08It notes that a probability of a large-scale escalation on the part of Russia exists.
15:12The most probable time when Russia will be ready for the escalation is the end of January.
15:18Ukraine reacted with military drills in the border region.
15:21And NATO made a show of force as well, with warship maneuvers in the Black Sea in the Baltic.
15:27The threatening posturing continues.
15:31Will Putin risk war?
15:32I'd like to go back to Roman in Bonn and turn that question around a little bit and just ask,
15:40why is Ukraine in the first place so very important for Vladimir Putin?
15:45There's more than just strategic considerations at play here.
15:49Well, Putin and the Russian elite and maybe large parts of the Russian society, but mostly Putin himself and people around him,
15:59are kind of obsessed with Ukraine.
16:01And this just hasn't started yesterday or two years ago.
16:04It's a long story.
16:06Because they see Ukraine as a kind of a crown jewel in the Russian Empire they're trying to rebuild or renew.
16:14And there is no way they're going to accept Ukraine going away to the West.
16:19So we have to bear that in mind when we see the situation unfolding.
16:26And Putin just described it once again in a very detailed article he wrote this summer,
16:32where he said that Ukrainians and Russians are one people,
16:35which was divided after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
16:39And he says we want to be friends and actually we shouldn't be fighting each other.
16:48Yes, but one thing is very important, which he says.
16:51He says Ukraine should be friendly to Russia.
16:55What he doesn't say, but what he implies is if it's not friendly to Russia, then it shouldn't exist at all.
17:01And this is very dangerous, I think, because Russia is ready to do things that no one considered possible just a few years ago.
17:10Now everything is possible.
17:11But for the moment this escalation that we see, my point is, is just an instrument to put pressure on the West
17:18and to force the West to start talking to Russia about security in Europe and especially weapons in Ukraine and around Ukraine.
17:29I would like to add something.
17:31One point why Russia looks very closely to Ukraine and wants to destabilize it.
17:37I think the point is that he wants to prevent Ukraine to be a successful democratic state as Russia is an autocratic system.
17:50And remember, please, Putin talking about the so-called colored revolutions in several countries, also in Eastern Europe.
18:02And don't forget about Maidan, which was the starting point for all this bigger crisis between Russia and Ukraine.
18:10So Putin doesn't want democratization in his neighborhood and especially in Ukraine, that is so much similar to Russia, from the size and so on, and from the structure.
18:23He doesn't want this country to succeed in democracy.
18:26I absolutely agree.
18:28That's a very important point.
18:30Yeah, that's a very important point.
18:32Ukrainians should not live better than the Russians, and they should not be a better, a democratic Russia.
18:39And this is very important for Putin.
18:41He's ready to do anything he can to prevent it.
18:45Thomas?
18:46Well, I'd like to broaden the scope a little bit.
18:50It's way beyond Ukraine, I think.
18:53When Putin is mentioning red lines, when he's demanding treaties, guarantees, we have to keep in mind that there are already treaties,
19:04that such negotiations have taken place, that some kind of legal framework exists.
19:11Just to mention the OSCE, which Russia is a member of, but nevertheless those monitors of OSCE in Ukraine have no real possibilities to monitor.
19:23On the other hand, there is the NATO-Russia Founding Act, which gives a legal framework for relations between NATO and Russia,
19:31which defines things both parts would do or not do, like NATO agreed not to base substantial combat troops in the former East Bloc,
19:42not to base nuclear weapons in the former East Bloc.
19:45So we have these legally binding guarantees Putin is demanding already in place.
19:52We've got the legally binding guarantees that you're talking about.
19:55And we've got a very passionate Vladimir Putin, who has an obsession with Ukraine.
20:02Which of those two aspects of the story, of history, is going to win out?
20:08Well, I think it's too early to tell, but at the moment Putin is testing the resolve of the West and the resolve of NATO.
20:18Would Vladimir Putin risk a major invasion if that were the only way to see his vision, his historic vision realised?
20:28I'm really not sure. Well, he is aware of the consequences, which need not be military.
20:35And I don't think Biden said combat troops, US combat troops are not on the table.
20:41So it won't be a military response. It will be a response on many other fields, which might hurt Russia as well.
20:50What is, is Germany, is the EU, we've got a new government coming in here in Germany, is the EU playing this game the right way with Vladimir Putin at this point in time?
21:03I mean, there are issues about energy policy, for example, where, you know, very many outside observers say that the EU, and especially Germany, has effectively shot itself in the foot.
21:13Yeah, exactly. But I think, I'm a bit optimistic now, because I think things are getting better.
21:20And the main, the main thing, the main task is unity within European Union and also between European Union, NATO members and the US.
21:31And we have positive signs because still this week, I guess, will be also a video call that includes, that shall include also the heads of states of eastern states, which are closer to Russia.
21:50And I think this is a very good sign of unity. And of course, Ukraine should also be involved.
21:57What advice would you have for the new German foreign minister who's now in her first week in office?
22:04What would your advice for her be on the Ukraine-Russia story?
22:09Well, I would advise her to travel to Kyiv as soon as possible. She's traveling to European capitals now.
22:16I think Kyiv should be on the list, maybe by the end of this year, that will be a very strong signal.
22:21And this is something that I miss, actually. We hear a lot of words of support for Ukraine from Western leaders, from German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, and maybe we will hear them from the new chancellor, Olaf Scholz.
22:33But I think a personal presence of a Western high rank politician in Kyiv would be a very good signal of support to Ukraine because Ukraine is having already enough military support.
22:46It is having enough, I think, financial support and political support. What it needs is a few symbols.
22:52And once again, my very important idea, I think, is to think strategically in long term. What will become of Ukraine in five or ten years?
23:01When we find the answer to that question, we will solve the problem.
23:05Thomas Wiegolt, your advice to the incoming German government?
23:08Well, it's difficult at this point in time. I think, yeah, a firm stand on Russia. I think that's the most important point. And as Roman said, going to Kyiv might be a sign.
23:23I had the now vice chancellor who advised a few months ago during the election campaign, how about defensive weapons from Germany for Ukraine? We'll see if this…
23:34This is Robert Haubeck, a senior minister of the German government.
23:36Exactly. He suggested this.
23:38He has renewed that position as well in recent days.
23:41Yeah, but I think within his own party that's really a problem. And we'll see what comes out of it.
23:48What would you say, Ghazina? What's your advice to the German government, to the incoming German foreign minister?
23:54I think at first, as my colleagues said, a clear position and unity and to agree their positions and policies with the other members of EU.
24:06But at the same time, the German government and also the EU should keep on working on the ground and not forget about the situation we have already in Donbas.
24:18There is war ongoing and there is lots to be done in increasing small steps forward like prisoner exchange and dialogue between people on both sides of the contact line and things like that.
24:32We are talking about geopolitics and we should not forget about the people.
24:37Very important point. One of the… Let's go to Roman for it because, I mean, I know that you are from a generation that grew up in the shadow of war.
24:45How much does that influence your thinking and your perceptions at this point in time?
24:51You mean in the shadow of a cold war or you mean…
24:55The shadow of a possible war…
24:58Of a possible war, yeah.
25:00Yeah, exactly. Yeah.
25:01Well, let me say like this.
25:0710 or 15 years ago, I was sure there would be a war between Russia and Ukraine if Ukraine joins NATO.
25:13I think it was clear at that time.
25:15And so I was not surprised in 2014 when Russia annexed to Crimea.
25:19I was just surprised at the timing.
25:21So I think we might, we should look, should be looking, what can we…
25:26Roman, I'm very sorry.
25:27We're going to have to leave you there.
25:28Very, very sorry.
25:29Thanks for joining us from Bonn.
25:30We've been talking about the Ukraine-Russia crisis.
25:33Yeah, if you've enjoyed the show as much as I have, come back next time round.
25:37Until then, bye-bye and tschüss.
25:39And tschüss.
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